Galveston: Why 40,000 Ignored Hurricane Ike "Certain Death" Warning

by Christina 123 | September 26, 2008 at 01:37 pm

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EXPERTS estimate that of 500,000 in the mandatory evacuation zone, only 300,000 left, and of those in the "certain death" zone, 30% chose to stay behind. Gene Hafele director of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service says there is "no one answer" in NATIONAL GEOGRPAHIC as to why this might be so. Speculation amongst the boffins suggests that people were less well-informed than they imagined themselves to be and were lulled into a false sense of security by the media. Another reason may have been a distrust of the establishment and a perception of "hype" by the governmment.

Jay Baker, a professor of geography at Florida State University in Gainesville, has studied how people respond to hurricane warnings.
The main reason people don't comply with evacuation orders is because they think they will be safe despite the warning to leave, Baker said.
"They think the storm will miss them, or they think they will be safe in their homes even if the storm does hit," Baker said.
There's also the fact that evacuating can be an expensive and very difficult task, and that can prompt people to decide not to leave, Baker said.
In addition, the National Hurricane Center's Read added, live news reports from the ground in Galveston may have given some viewers a false sense of security. "Viewers think, It's OK for the cameraman to stay there, why not me?"
Florida State's Baker said, "I'm not convinced that there's any kind of deep-seated psychological reason. People just make poor judgments. They don't know how bad it can get if they stay."
Billy Wagner is the chief emergency management specialist for Early Alert, a private hurricane warning and emergency management consulting service based in Tampa, Florida.
The availability of so much hurricane information on the Internet may be another reason why some people decide to ignore evacuation orders, Wagner said.
Amateur forecasters don't have the skill and training to evaluate hurricane data and make sound decisions about whether they should evacuate, he added.
The National Hurricane Center, on the other hand, has the "overall picture" of the approaching storm and also is communicating with local officials about whether to issue evacuation orders, he said.
"They need to listen to public officials," Wagner said. "I'm always concerned that too many people think they're tropical meteorologists now and are second-guessing what's taking place."
Read, the National Hurricane Center director, said forecasters will be taking a "cold, hard" look after the hurricane season at hurricane warnings and how people responded to them. The review could prompt changes in how the center issues warnings, he said.