Had the results of the American Presidential elections been announced about a month before those ones held in Kenya,Kenya would have by now been divided probably into two countries.
These belief is now being reinforced by concerns by majority of kenyans who were considered to have been pro- the previous govt who are now getting concerned about the prospects of Luo dominance in the govt after President-elect Barack Obama won in the American elections.
Kenyan tribal politics are complex and majority of foreigners are unable to grasp the dynamics behind the silent tribal animosities especially between the two major tribes namely Luos and Kikuyus.
Now,Barack Obama descends from the Luo tribe that is found on the shores of lake Victoria in Western Kenya bordering the landlocked Uganda.
The Kenyan Prime Minister Right Honourable Raila Odinga is a Luo who in the last infamous Kenyan elections was alleged to have won the disputed Presidential elections.
He hails from the same tribe with Barack Obama's father,the Luos.
During the last elections in Kenya,he was credited for pulling a rare feat of uniting other small tribes including the Kalenjins from whom the former President Daniel arap Moi hailed from against the Kikuyus who are mainly in central Kenya and in an internal diaspora known as Rift Valley Province where they acquired the former white owned farms with the help of the then late President Jomo Kenyatta.
Immediately after the announcement of the Presidential results in December last year in which the incumbent President who happens to be a Kikuyu was declared the winner,hell broke loose in Rift Valley and Kisumu the home town of Mr Odinga. Kikuyus were hunted down and killed like dogs and their homes and other property burnt down to ashes.
The game plan seems to have been to chase them from these Odinga strongholds in readiness for imminent ceasation from the rest of the country.
Quarter million of them fled to the Internally displaced camps in the friendly pockets of sorrounding areas and the capital city of Nairobi.
It is this group whose relatives were murdered who now fear that Obama win will strengthen Luos to pursue their dominance over the proud and arrogant Kikuyu who have dominated the kenyan politics since indipendence with the exception of Moi's 24 year rule when they were also killed in the then politically instigated land crashes in the Rift valley during 1992 and 1997 general elections.
For their part,the kikuyus who are sayed to constitute 33% of kenyan population were subdued and dismayed by the Obama win.
This was also the case with the Vice Presidents Kalonzo Musyoka's Kamba tribe who supported the government immediately after the announcement of the disputed results.
They cannot but wonder if Obama being of Luo ancestry himself is going to the Luos the muscle they require to completely subdue these genocide prone group who are fearing to return to their destroyed farms now that the results of American elections are likely to change equation in Kenyan politics with new Luo sympathetic administration in the Whitehouse.
For them Obama win may as well have spelt disaster to their efforts in picking up the pieces on their broken lives as they are now being taunted that Luos have one of their own holding the most powerful office on earth and Hague could as well be some backwater place somewhere in the world that is ineffectual when America calls the world to new order.