Pressure grows as Melbourne rockets to 4 million

by Maireid Sullivan | April 26, 2009 at 12:51 am

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Since returning to Melbourne seven years ago, I've been amazed at the growth in N.E. Melbourne, very close to the area where our friends and acquaintances perished in the Black Saturday blaze.

I thought the growth was due to inner city "yuppies" selling their houses at the top of the market, for millions, –coming out here to buy, with money left over, but I'm seeing young families, mostly first-home buyers, moving into our area in droves! The increase in 'cool' cafés and specialty shops is quite staggering. But, no wonder, because this is a magnificent part of Victoria, set between mountain ranges, we receive a good amount of rainfall, which keeps the country green most of the year, producing a great variety of fruit, including the legendary Yarra Valley vineyards.

Tim Colebatch

April 24, 2009

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MELBOURNE'S population is growing on a scale not seen in Australia before, swelling by almost 150,000 people in two years — mostly on the city fringe.

Bureau of Statistics figures show the city is on track to have 4 million people by the end of this year, after its population growth increased to an annual rate of 2 per cent.

The bureau estimates that Melbourne's population grew by 74,713 in the year to last June and, on revised figures, by 74,791 the year before that.

This means the population is growing by more than 200 people a day, or almost 1500 a week.

Melbourne's population growth last year far outpaced all other major Australian cities. Sydney's population grew by 55,047 or 1.3 per cent, Brisbane by 43,404 (2.3 per cent) and Perth by 43,381 (2.8 per cent).

The label of Australia's fastest-growing city might once have been one for which Melbourne yearned but these days it could be more of a burden for Premier John Brumby and his Government, adding to overcrowded trains, congested roads, housing prices, housing shortages and delays in hospital treatment.

In the past, the State Government used to seize on figures showing strong population growth as evidence that Victoria was leading the nation. Yesterday Mr Brumby was silent on the data showing even faster growth.

Sydney remains Australia's biggest city, with just under 4.4 million people at mid-2008. Melbourne had just under 3.9 million, Brisbane 1.95 million, Perth 1.6 million and Adelaide 1.2 million.

At that rate, Brisbane's population would reach 2 million by October, Melbourne would pass 4 million in December, and Sydney would top 4.5 million about a year from now.

But in a reversal of recent trends, the bureau estimates that 61 per cent of last year's growth was on Melbourne's fringes, despite the State Government's policy that Melbourne should grow upwards rather than outwards.

The outer suburbs — defined here as suburbs more than 20 kilometres from the city — added almost 46,000 people, mostly around Werribee, Melton, Plenty Valley and the suburbs beyond Berwick. Continued...

Source: theage.com.au

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Shi-ren Hou

at 01:38 on April 26th, 2009

Do you think it's young professionals who are responsible for the sudden gentrification of your area? N.E. Melbourne seems too far away from the central business district for them to reside there permanently - it would make the morning commute too inconvenient. Then again, it's unlikely that the sudden appearance of self-consciously trendy cafes and retailers has been spurred by an increase in the number of affluent retired professionals.

I would conjecture that the bulk of the increase in Melbourne's population is comprised of younger people from smaller regional centres, who are less concerned about making money and acquiring a high-status profession, and more interested in availing themselves of all the varied pleasures afforded by a large urban setting. Essentially, young bohemians and callow hipsters who are drawn to the the big city by its more exciting cultural life, rather than just improved economic prospects and opportunities for prosperity.

I think Melbourne is actually a far better city for this than Sydney. The cost of living is far lower, and my impression is that is has a far more diverse and vibrant culture scene (if you're into that kind of thing). Any aspiring investment banker or corporate lawyer, however, is more likely to move to Sydney.

Maireid Sullivan

at 22:11 on April 26th, 2009

Thanks for the extensive comments, Shi-ren Hou

I'll reply to each: My comments above referred to our area, the N.E. - and we are right next the green belt, where development is controlled, and the reserves are large, and the river is large, with improvements to the flow and cleanliness. I have to say when I got back 7 years ago, I was relieved to see that the Warrandyte / Ringwood road was still a country road, with better surfacing.

The Eastern fwy extension was completed just last year, opening up access to the S.E. and the bay, so travel to and from the north side of the city is much easier now. Northern Melb. suburbs, around Melb. Uni. have 'always' been favoured by students, artists, with the mostly old Gold Rush terrace houses, now renovated by graduates from the 70s to the 90s, –and minimum industry. Outer suburban "tourists' go into town to theatres and great restaurants. And, now that we have the freeway extension, people from the S.E. come up this way to get there.

I suspect that the combination of the August 07 peak in the real estate boom-bust cycle might have played a part in the move east. The government first-home buyer's grant of $21K has kept the price of houses buoyant here. Lots of affluent looking young couples, with babies and young children, have moved in around us. I am not seeing retired people and "empty nesters". They seem to be choosing apartment living, and we don't have many apartments out here. That said, if any of them sold their inner city house, they could buy a house on a big block at half the price out here. Since apartments and rental housing is in short supply here, the rents are almost at the rate of the inner suburbs.

During the boom, everything boomed, including rents.

That's on the N.E. - it is different in the S.E. The western suburbs are really popular now too, for renovators - with an increase in the same style of cool cafés and shops. I don't know if the cost of housing is as expensive. I have friends who bought a "fixer-upper" for around 350K about 10 miles of the CBD two years ago, and they say it is now worth a 100K more!

I must add that our area, the N.E has 'traditionally' been popular with your "bohemians and callow hipster"- and their well educated children.

I prefer Melbourne to any city in the world! It has an amazing arts and fashion sector, and the restaurants are legendary. And, it is not a glitzy city! Sydney is glitzy- appealing to advertising execs and the corporateocracy. Even tho' Sydney and San Francisco are "officially" sister cities, because of the seven hills, I think Melbourne is more like SF, or Toranto, or Boston.

I don't know about the migrtation of people from rural centres, but it makes sense. They aren't coming out here to the N.E - this is more a place for raising young families - with great schools, and lots of parks and reserves, and excellent infrastructure. :)

Where do you live?

Shi-ren Hou

at 07:38 on April 27th, 2009

Thanks for the extensive description of the situation in your local area. Although I have travelled to Melbourne on a reasonably regular basis for the past ten years, I have never visited the north-eastern area where you reside, and was unaware that it is such a pleasant environment (on the basis of your descriptions).

I'm a little surprised to hear that a lot of retired empty nesters in Victoria prefer the apartment lifestyle to spacious housing in a more sedate environment. In New South Wales, the trend seems to be for retirees to purchase houses in small coastal towns. Whenever my family and I travel to the south-eastern coast for a holiday, entire communities have the feel of extended retirement villages, as it seem most of the people in the street are grey-haired and venerable.

I am very fond of Melbourne as well. The reason why I mention bohemians and trendy hipsters specifically is that when I graduated from high-school (I grew up in Canberra) in the late 1990's, the one city that all the kids in my age bracket wanted to move to was Melbourne, rather than Sydney. I think this general preference was due to Melbourne's more vibrant atmosphere and culture - there are so many things which Melbourne possesses that Sydney lacks completely. I'm fond of Sydney, but I do find parts of it to be crass and pretentious (or as you put it, "glitzy").

I visited Boston and New York recently, and much to my surprise, New York struck me as being akin to a much larger, much more diverse version of Melbourne. I'm not the only person who has expressed these sentiments. I think the reason for this is the grid layout of the city, which Melbourne shares (but Sydney lacks, consisting of George Street and some ancillary avenues). Other similarities are the cafe and restaurant culture, and the flatness of the surrounding area. Even the outer suburbs felt similar. My family and I took the train to the borough of Flushing, which is host to a large Asian (mainly Vietnamese and Korean) community, to eat a meal, and I could have been in either Springvale or Footscray. Even the view from the train felt similar.

All this being said, I dare say that Melbourne's popular bar and fashion areas - Chapel Street for example, are far more charming than anything I saw during my brief stay in New York.

I'm normally based in China (lived in Shangahi for the past five years), but am currently back in my hometown of Canberra on an extended holiday.

Maireid Sullivan

at 16:55 on April 28th, 2009

Well, then, the next time you come to Melbourne, I'll introduce you to our area. You would need several days to see important outer areas, north, east and south from us. I like where we are because our friends surround us within a radius of 25K, which includes the city. I've travelled and lived in other countries, but always come back to AU. :)

When I first moved here, at age 21, I lived in South Yarra, the fashionable up-market, upper-class "old money" area. A year later I moved to Carlton, when it was a hive of creative arts, theatre and music. North of the Yarra used to be working class, but those houses were sold at high prices during the early boom-bust cycles, and most have been gentrified by professional multi-cultural classes.

We still have mono-cultural precincts, like "Little Vietnam" with rows of popular restaurants. The eastern suburbs, especially near Box Hill, have a huge Asian population, probably because this area had temporary housing for immigrants, who stayed on.

Yes, I can see that NY - or Manhattan is a lot like inner city Melbourne, –because of the grid, and because of the multi-cultural populations, which used to gather in pockets of first generation immigrants - Little Italy, China Town, Harlem, etc.. Melb. had Greek and Italian first-generation migrant areas here from the 50s and 60, when a large group were brought in to build infrastructure. Most didn't speak English, and were predominantly uneducated peasant stock (referred to as "New Australians" - with undertones of racism) until the second / third generations entered the professional classes, and moved out to the suburban developments. They were followed by Vietnam war refugees, who received the same bigotry, (I'm human you're not!) which seems to have passed now that multi-culturalism is promoted as a positive development.

The English and American land speculation-based neo-classical economic system was imported to Australia, so the similarities are apparent. That system is now being exported to China! I'm surprised to see China let it happen, when the classical economic system is so much closer to the ideology of equality for all.

I have a great love for Chinese culture. I spent about 10 years - during the 70s and 80s, reading Chinese history. I should add that I discovered Vipassana meditation at age 15. (followed by my discovery of ancient Celtic history :) The last book I read was "Life and Death in Shanghai" by Nien Chen, all about the Cultural Revolution of the late 60s. Have you read that? Well worth while!

I almost forgot, re. the retirees, the "venerable" people who move to the beach, there is a deep tradition to own holiday houses, on the beach especially. When I came here, it seemed 'everyone" had a beach house. People left the city on long weekends in droves. ...and they still do - three neighbors on our street own holiday houses at the beach somewhere. :)

But, apartment living has become fashionable as well. I met a young looking "venerable" man recently who said he wasn't a gardner anymore because when his kids left home, he and his wife sold the house and moved into a flat, and he was quick to add that it was the smartest thing he ever did. So... :)

We've been 'practicing' gardening and nurturing the birds for 7 years, since we moved back to Au, and because we work from our home studio, it is a great respite from the technology. ... otherwise, it is hard work!