"Viral media" might really be "Tree media" - Study

by ScienceDave | April 21, 2008 at 05:57 pm | 625 views | 4 comments

Finally, someone has done it (and published it in a prestigious journal like PNAS).

Apparently, current models of information spread online have assumed the "viral" form (i.e. information spreads like an epidemic, reaching the largest audience in the fewest number of possible steps). However, recently published work in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences points to a new model that is far from the "fanning out" traditionally thought to occur. From the article's abstract (available for free here):

Here, we trace such information-spreading processes at a person-by-person level using methods to reconstruct the propagation of massively circulated Internet chain letters. We find that rather than fanning out widely, reaching many people in very few steps according to "small-world" principles, the progress of these chain letters proceeds in a narrow but very deep tree-like pattern, continuing for several hundred steps. This suggests a new and more complex picture for the spread of information through a social network.

Interestingly, the "fan" shape that would be expected instead resembled an elaborate tree, where >90% of the letter exchanges only had one child (i.e. they passed it on to one person at a time). Therefore, one might infer that the social relationships online aren't as powerful as one might think (i.e. those with the most friends don't necessarily influence the most people).

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cynthia yoo

at 18:32 on April 21st, 2008

good stuff:

ScienceDave, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Rachel Nixon

at 18:35 on April 21st, 2008

good stuff:

Interesting. So it's about the quality rather than the quantity of one's friends?

Karen Hatter

at 20:08 on April 21st, 2008

good stuff:

Very interesting stuff, Dave. The term "viral" has always, for me, inferred exponential spread or growth. Although, when I get the cyber version of the 'snail mail' chain letter, it sure seems like a virus!