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Damn emotions, why we make bad $$ decisions
by ryan | August 10, 2007 at 09:26 am
625 views | 24 Recommendations | 3 comments
Worldwide markets are crashing. The sub-prime mortgage market imploded. And now, as the puzzle pieces come apart and details of the loans people were taking out to finance their oversized homes emerge...the only thing left to ask is - what were they thinking? A reverse amortizing, variable interest rate loan?!?
Psychologists take on the task.
So why do people take out sub-prime loans? Don't they realize that they won't be able to afford the ensuing 28 years of mortgage payments? I think a big part of the reason sub-prime loans remain so seductive, even when the financial terms are so atrocious, is that they take advantage of a dangerous flaw built into our brain. This flaw is rooted in our emotional brain, which tends to overvalue immediate gains (like a new house) at the expense of future costs (high interest rates). Our feelings are thrilled by the prospect of a new home, but can't really grapple with the long-term fiscal consequences of the decision. Our impulsivity encounters little resistance, and so we sign on the bottom line. We want the house. We'll figure out how to pay for it later.
The problem seems to lie in the conflict between emotion and logic. I want it now versus this is a financial risk I can't and don't want to take.
When we opt for a 2/28 mortgage, we are acting like experimental subjects choosing the wrong gift certificate. Because the emotional parts of our brain reliably undervalue the future - life is short and they want pleasure now - we end up delaying saving until tomorrow (and tomorrow and tomorrow.) George Loewenstein, a neuroeconomist at Carnegie Mellon University and a collaborator on the Cohen paper, thinks that understanding how we make decisions will help economists develop better public policies: "Our emotions are like programs that evolved to solve important and recurring problems in our distant past," he says. "They are not always well suited to the decisions we make in modern life. It's important to know how our emotions lead us astray so that we can design incentives and programs to help compensate for our irrational biases."
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (3)
at 09:37 on August 10th, 2007
Emotion is key to purchasing decisions. Emotion creates housing bubbles, in which real-estate prices are inflated beyond their real-world value; whn I was a rentals agent in NYC, I saw that people, when faced with a place they just loved but could not afford, would put in an application anyway, even if I, the broker tried to talk them out of it... Emotion makes us buy, and easy credit is our enabler!
at 09:11 on August 12th, 2007
This is really good stuff! I think that all of us struggle between "instant gratification" and the delaying of pleasure in some far-off, unknown future.
Easy credit is the new version of the old "three card monte" or "shell game" that hustlers played on the streets. Bottom line: no matter what you choose, the system is now structured to, in essence, punish you for using their credit and services. There are secrets, too.
Once I was charged a late fee when I had actually paid on time. The reason given--it was processed in our system after 1 p.m. and we count that as late. Never mind that I had paid online, via their website, and the payment was sent in way ahead of time! Had I not called (and I got my money back), I would never have learned that 1 p.m. rule.
Interesting experiment: call your charge card companies and ask them what the cut-off time for "on time" payments is on the due date. Then contemplate: if you submit a payment 5 to 7 days, or even 3 days, ahead of time, and it's their computers that handle the payment time, or their process that handles the mail, what are the chances that the process could easily sling many payments into the "late" bin?
at 14:38 on August 12th, 2007
PEP,
Thanks for the wonderful comment. You are definitely right about the danger and appeal of credit. But it's no surprise that business capitalized on this human tendency as such is the nature of the beast...
Our dependence and trust in the electronic systems that run every system we interact with is a huge weakness...we blindly trust computers and their makers.