Dangerous Hurricane Dennis Heads Into Gulf of Mexico

Dennis winds have increased from 50mph to 65mph. Still too early to predict the exact path, here is the latest 5-day cone for Tropical Storm/soon-to-be-Hurricane Dennis:

 

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale:

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:

Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.

Category Two Hurricane:

Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Category Three Hurricane:

Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:

Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

Category Five Hurricane:

Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

According to the AFP:

MIAMI (AFP) - Florida governor declared a state of emergency, warning that Hurricane Dennis could cause a "major disaster" in the southeastern US state that was pummeled by four such storms last year.

At the same time, authorities ordered the evacuation of all non-residents in the Florida Keys, which forecasters say could be hit by the increasingly powerful hurricane this weekend.

More articles/stories:

• DENNIS BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
• Hurricane Dennis grows to level 4
• Weather Channel Update
• Accuweather Update
• Hurricane Dennis Latest Forecast: 11:00 PM Update
• Experts say increased hurricane activity likely to continue for years

Looks like your return could coincide with Dennis'

"The first hurricane of the season threatened to intensify as it headed
straight for Cuba. Forecasters at the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami
predicted the storm could hit the United States anywhere from Florida
to Louisiana by Sunday or Monday, raising fears oil production in the
Gulf of Mexico would be disrupted by the fourth storm in as many weeks."

Try to stay out of harm's way Deb.

Will do, Mike. My heart goes out to everyone in the path of Dennis:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 081225
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...

JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

And for fellow Tampa Bay area residents: On its current course, Dennis would be about 125 miles west of Clearwater by Saturday afternoon, forecasters predicted. The storm will deliver heavy rain, strong winds and 2 to 3 feet of storm surge to the Tampa Bay area, according to the National Weather Service.

More:

• Tampa Bay (animated radar)
• Floridadisaster.org