Climate Change Poses Significant Threat to Key Economic Sectors in Florida

University Study Says Five Percent of State’s Economy At Risk

 

If left unchecked, climate change will significantly harm Florida’s economy in the next several decades, according to a new report by Tufts University economists.  Impacts on just three sectors – tourism, electric utilities, and real estate – together with effects of hurricanes would shrink Florida’s Gross State Product by 5% by the end of this century. 

“The bad news is that unconstrained climate change will hit Florida’s economy hard,” said Dr. Frank Ackerman of Tuft’s University’s Global Development and Environmental Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute-US, one of the report’s lead authors.  “But the good news is that these impacts can largely be avoided by taking action in the near future to rapidly stabilize overall emissions of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.”

“Florida and Climate Change:  The Costs of Inaction,” commissioned by Environmental Defense, is the first detailed analysis on the potential consequences of continued climate change for the state’s economy.   The report compares two specific climate scenarios: a pessimistic business-as-usual case and a rapid stabilization case.  “These scenarios represent what will happen if the world succeeds in a robust program of climate mitigation, versus what will happen if we do very little. Our analysis focuses on direct economic impacts, and doesn’t even begin to reflect the human and environmental impacts that would also result – impacts that may well outstrip the dollar costs,” said Ackerman. 

 Under the business-as-usual scenario, sea-level rise is projected to reach 23 inches by 2050, and 45 inches by 2100.  Almost one-tenth of Florida’s current population, or 1.5 million people, lives in the vulnerable zone that would be inundated. One-quarter of the affected population lives in Miami-Dade County. While efforts to protect at least some portions of the vulnerable zone will surely be taken, they may prove unavailing in some locales (and will be costly even where effective). As the Science and Technology Committee of the Miami-Dade County Climate Change Task Force recently noted, “the highly porous limestone and sand substrate of Miami-Dade County (which at present permits excellent drainage) will limit the effectiveness of widespread use of levees and dikes to wall off the encroaching sea.” 

Heat waves will become more severe and more common, with new record temperatures and a gradual decline in night time cooling. The average “heat index” (temperature combined with humidity) in summer will 15–20 percent higher in much of the state. Miami will become several degrees hotter than today’s Bangkok (probably the world’s hottest, most humid major city at present), and daily highs in many Florida cities will exceed 90 degrees nearly two-thirds of the year.

 

In the business-as-usual case, the future of Florida’s tourism industry is clouded. Florida’s average temperature increases 2.5ºF by 2025, 5ºF by 2050, and 10 ºF by 2100. In January, warmer temperatures are unlikely to scare off many tourists, but in July and August — when the average high temperature on Miami Beach will rise from 87ºF to 97ºF over the next century, and the July heat index (temperature and humidity combined) will increase by 15 to 20ºF — Florida’s already hot and sticky weather is likely to lose some of its appeal for visitors.

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Tourism, one of Florida’s largest economic sectors, will be the hardest hit as much of the state’s wealth of natural beauty – sandy beaches, the Everglades and the Keys – disappears under the waves.  The vulnerable zone also includes key infrastructure, including two nuclear power plants, three prisons, 68 hospitals, 74 airports, 334 public schools, and nearly 20,000 historic structures.

“Arguments against strong action to combat climate change often implicitly assume that inaction would be cost-free — that we can chose a future without significant impacts from climate change even if emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue to grow unchecked,” said Ackerman.  “But the overwhelming scientific consensus now holds that this rosy assumption is simply wrong, and that the more greenhouse gases are released, the worse the consequences will be.”

“This study shows that Florida stands to lose big time if Congress fails to enact strong climate legislation in the near future,” said Gerald Karnas, Florida Climate Project Director for Environmental Defense.   “The longer Congress delays, the harder that climate change will hit Floridians right in the wallet.”