Truemors
NowPublic Exclusive from CornwallNews.
As so many communities worldwide have become adversely affected, disturbed and disrupted by the impact of mass air transport and its consequences, here is a timely and thorough report from a member of just such a community - Cornwall. Many lessons can be taken from this report and applied elsewhere in the world, hopefully for the greater benefit of all.
The Foreward, Contents and Executive Summary are published below and by title page section on the right.
The content headings will also become ( when this mulitiple page upload is complete!) hyperlinks to the relevant part.
Newquay Airport Expansion:
The Case Examined (Revised
Edition)
A report by Elizabeth Baines
Commissioned by Groundswell Cornwall
© Groundswell Cornwall 2007
www.groundswellcornwall.org
Foreword
This report has been
commissioned by Groundswell Cornwall,
an informal local association. Its purpose is to assess the case for the
expansion of Newquay
Airport.
The report has been prepared
by Elizabeth Baines, a postgraduate student at King's College, London.
The plans for the expansion
of the airport come at a pivotal time for Cornwall
and its development. Decisions have to be made against a background of rising
concern about the impact of climate change, anxiety about energy supplies -
particularly oil – a strong desire to protect the economic development of Cornwall,
growing pressures on the public purse, and the backdrop of the EU Convergence
Programme.
Substantial investment is
required to bring the airport up to CAA
standards. Further significant funds will be required to cater for the proposed
dramatic increase in passenger numbers.
However, these funds will be
invested into a project that will increase Cornwall's CO2 emissions, that does not
appear to take account of rising oil prices, and that will damage our local
environment. Furthermore, the report suggests that even the business case for
the airport may not be as robust as is claimed.
The findings of the study
have persuaded us, as signatories to this foreword, to call for a wider debate
on the impact of the plans on Cornwall's
economy, communities and environment and our contribution to global warming. We
all wish to see a successful, outward looking society, a protected and
strengthened environment and a thriving economy for Cornwall. Our fear is that the plans for the
airport may
undermine the very thing we
wish to achieve.
We will welcome and play our
full part in the debate, and are reassured that the announcement of a
consultation process by Cornwall
County Council indicates
their commitment to do the same.
We commend the report and
welcome it as an important contribution to the discussion on Cornwall's future.
Groundswell Cornwall
2 October 2007
www.groundswellcornwall.org
Signed: Oliver Baines, Andrew and Sue Biss,
Manda Brookman, Will Coleman, Mike
Haywood, Matt Hocking, Ian Jones, Lorely Lloyd, Peter McGregor,
Mandy Milano,
Lindley Owen, Lindsay Southcombe, Verena Stubbs, Mark Summers,
Matthew
Trevaskis, Tony Wainwright
© Groundswell Cornwall, October 2007
Newquay Airport Expansion:
The Case Examined (Revised
Edition)
A report by Elizabeth Baines
Commissioned by Groundswell Cornwall
© Groundswell Cornwall 2007
www.groundswellcornwall.org
Contents
Foreword
Executive summary
Chapter 1: Newquay
Airport: Background
Chapter Summary
1.1 The operating deficit
1.2 The CAA license
1.3 Passenger numbers
1.4 Building works at the airport
1.5 Expenditure and funding
1.6 Consultation on expansion plans
Chapter 2: Is There a Case for Expansion?
Chapter Summary
2.1 The rate of growth in air transport
2.2 Government policy
2.3 Is there a demand for aviation growth in Cornwall?
2.4 Public opinion towards Newquay Airport
expansion
2.5 Airport expansion elsewhere in the UK
Chapter 3: Flying in the Face of Resource Depletion:
Peak Oil and the Aviation Industry
Chapter Summary
3.1 What is Peak Oil?
3.2 Oil supply
3.3 How could Peak Oil have already passed?
3.4 When will oil extraction peak?
3.5 Our dependence on oil
3.6 What are the implications for air travel?
Chapter 4: The Environmental Case
Chapter Summary
The national scene:
4.1 The UK
Government’s emissions targets
4.2 Achieving UK
emissions targets
4.3 The impact of air travel on the atmosphere
4.4 The Radiative Forcing Index
Newquay Airport:
4.5 The local environment
4.6 Local air quality
4.7 Noise pollution
4.8 Action by the aviation industry to tackle climate change
Climate change in Cornwall:
4.9 Cornwall County Council’s commitment to tackling climate
change
4.10 Mitigating the environmental impacts of expansion
4.11 Low altitude flying
Transport alternatives:
4.12 The carbon footprint of air travel
4.13 The ‘social damage’ costs of carbon emitted by aviation
4.14 The impact of increased congestion around the airport
4.15 Access to the airport
4.16 Possibilities for investment in other means of transport in Cornwall
4.17 Hidden costs for the taxpayer
Decarbonisation measures in the aviation industry:
4.18 The role of a European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
4.19 Will the costs of air travel increase as a result of
environmental measures?
Chapter 5: Potential Economic Impacts of
Newquay Airport Expansion
Chapter Summary
Newquay airport and the Cornish economy
5.1 Newquay
Airport’s air passenger
profile
5.2 Newquay
Airport’s running deficit
5.3 Passenger growth scenarios
5.4 Aviation subsidies
5.5 The impact of ‘no expansion’
5.6 The additional costs of climate change and peak oil
5.7 The importance of airports to local and regional economies
Aviation’s relationship to employment
5.8 Aviation and employment in the UK
5.9 Aviation and employment in Cornwall
5.10 Employment creation in the aviation sector
Tourism
5.11 Tourism in the UK
and Cornwall
5.12 Newquay Airport’s contribution to Cornwall’s tourism sector
5.13 What will be the effect of climate change on the aviation
industry?
5.14 The UK’s
growing tourism deficit
5.15 Outbound tourism from Newquay Airport
5.16 Socio-economic impact
5.17 Case study: the aftermath of 9/11
References
© Groundswell Cornwall, October 2007
Newquay Airport Expansion:
The Case Examined (Revised
Edition)
A report by Elizabeth Baines
Commissioned by Groundswell Cornwall
© Groundswell Cornwall 2007
www.groundswellcornwall.org
Executive
Summary
This report examines the case
for the proposed expansion of Newquay
Airport. It assesses current
demand and future predictions for air travel in the UK
and Cornwall,
and analyses the airport’s future viability in the light of climate change and
peak oil.
The past, current and future
operational deficits at the airport are considered. The inescapable conclusion
is that in spite of the planned investment the airport will remain unprofitable
indefinitely.
It challenges the assumption
that the growth in air traffic experienced over the last decade will continue,
referring to a troubled economic outlook for the UK, continuing rises in fuel
costs, government action in relation to climate change and increasing popular
concern over the
environmental damage of air
travel. The importance of the expansion of the airport in generating employment
and encouraging business in Cornwall
is challenged.
It argues that the impact of
peak oil on rural communities such as Cornwall
will be farreaching, irreversible and rapid, with price increases in all
sectors, dramatic rises in fuel costs, and the risk of terminal economic
recession.
In relation to the
environmental challenges to airport expansion, it points to the critical importance
to the Government of achieving their legally binding CO2 emissions targets and the
challenge that the forecast growth in air transport will pose in achieving
these targets. It refutes the claim that Newquay Airport’s
emissions can be offset against the decline in
emissions from military
operations at RAF St Mawgan. The report draws attention to the issues of local
noise and air pollution, and road congestion, all of which will worsen under
the plans.
The various claims on the
issue of emission levels from different types of transport are considered. The
most persuasive evidence is that on all measures air travel still holds prime position
as the most polluting form of transport. In addition, since most air passengers
travel to the airport by car, the inescapable conclusion is that in terms of
pollution, congestion and CO2 emissions the best outcome for the airport would
be to reduce passenger numbers.
The overview of future
decarbonisation measures in the aviation industry and the introduction of the
EU Emissions Trading Scheme illustrate a further challenge to the airport
plans. It examines the economic case for expansion. The optimistic forecast by Cornwall County Council that the airport will
become economically viable at 500,000 passengers per year is challenged. In
addition no convincing evidence is found that the airport makes an ‘essential’ contribution
to the economy of Cornwall.
The significant contribution to employment locally is over-inflated.
The report points out that
the expansion of air travel is largely confined to those on higher incomes
taking more holidays, with the number of visitors coming to Cornwall by air
still a tiny proportion of our total visitors. It concludes that in the light
of the current threat of peak oil, the damage to the environment, and the
questionable contribution to Cornwall’s
economy the case for expansion is not made. Moreover the plans send a clear
signal that Cornwall
does not take climate change seriously.
The plans will be seen by
those outside Cornwall, and increasingly by
people within Cornwall,
as self serving and short sighted.
© Groundswell Cornwall, October 2007
Chapter 1
Newquay
Airport:
Background
Summary
- Newquay airport has operated under deficit for a number of years.
Increasing air passenger capacity will not clear this deficit in the
future. (1.1, 1.3) - Obtaining the CAA
license will require major additional investment. The license has yet to
be issued. (1.2) - While passenger numbers at Newquay Airport
are planned to increase, this will not necessarily transfer into an
operational surplus. (1.3) - Investment in Newquay Airport by Cornwall County
Council will be made with the aim of obtaining the CAA
license and expanding the airport. Phase 1 works at the airport are due to
be completed shortly, with Phase 2 starting in October 2007. (1.4) - Expenditure aimed at improving facilities at Newquay Airport
already runs into millions of pounds. Present anticipated costs for
bringing capacity up to 700,000 passengers a year is £44.12m. (1.5) - A
consultation on the airport expansion plans was due to begin on 1st September
2007. (1.6)
1.1 The operating deficit
Newquay Airport has been facing financial
difficulties for several years.
Cornwall County Council
became sole owners of the airport in 2004, the same year in which the BBC
reported on the airport’s running deficit of £750,000, with the airport facing
an overall shortfall of £1.7million.1 This had occurred despite an increase in passenger numbers; the
increase had been mainly due to the growing popularity of low budget airlines,
which pay lower charges.
In 2005-6, despite an assumed
£500,000 of additional income through the introduction of an Airport
Development Fee (ADF), Newquay Airport’s deficit rose from a budgeted £484k to
£1.0m and finally £1.2m, partly due to increasing operating costs.2 The budgeted deficit for
2006-7, set at £1.031m,3 came in at £923,000.4
While the 2007-8 Budget Book
omits a reference to any deficit or surplus, it does record that an
‘additional’ £800k would be required for 2007-8.5
The deficits are funded by
the Council.
1.2
The CAA licence
Newquay Airport operates as a civil enclave
within RAF St Mawgan. Whereas the landside facilities are owned by the airport
the airside facilities have been operated by the RAF base. The council pays a
fee for the use of fire cover and air traffic control.6
In March 2005 the then
Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon announced that the RAF base would be put into care
and maintenance in April 2007, leaving the airport’s future in doubt.7 The RAF’s pull out date has
since been delayed. Newquay
Airport states that from
August 2008 airfield services will be provided by the airport company subject
to a civil license being secured from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).8
In order to gain the CAA license required to enable the airport to
continue functioning following the effective closure of RAF St Mawgan the
civilian airport has had to seek finance for the provision of air traffic
control, radar and fire fighters to the tune of £21m (‘day one’ funding) and a
total of £44.12m to complete all works.9 At the time of writing this report the CAA
license was yet to be issued.10
1.3 Passenger numbers
Passenger numbers from Newquay Airport
have greatly increased recently, echoing a UK wide trend. The Newquay Airport website reports that numbers
were up 3% in 2006 from the previous year, with 370,000 passengers using the
airport. The forecast for 2007 was 430,000 passengers (since revised down to
400,000), a 16% increase
on 2006 numbers.11
Newquay Airport has pushed for expansion of
the airport amid claims that once past the 500,000 passenger number mark the
airport’s viability is likely to increase. However Mark Pilling, editor of
Airline Business Magazine, has said that low-cost carriers make it ‘almost
impossible’ to make profitable deals on services and that Newquay Airport,
being out on the periphery, is at a heavy disadvantage (see section 5.3 on the
Aviasolutions report findings; the airport’s deficit will continue even with an
increase in passenger numbers to 1.1 million passengers per annum by 2030).12
1.4
Building works at the airport.
The airport has received much
financial input in the last six or seven years. In May 2001 for example a new
terminal was opened at the airport at the cost of £2.3million.13 Further works were completed
in 2006 at a cost of £2.8 million including a single-storey extension to the
existing building to ‘improve facilities’.14 Funding was secured from Objective One European Regional
Development Funding (ERDF) and the Department for Transport.
According to Newquay Airport, airport passenger capacity for
2007 will be around 430,000. The expansion of the existing facilities to comply
with CAA requirements would raise
capacity to 700,000 by 2011 and is planned to begin during 2007.15
The planning application
states that it ‘seeks the continued operation of the airfield’ rather than
looks to facilitate any future airport expansion proposals.16 However, the Council’s
Community Policy Development and Scrutiny Committee sets out their three main
aims as being to obtain a CAA
licence, retain it, and to continue to grow the business.17
Given the Council’s aims to
treble air passenger capacity to attempt to make the enterprise financially
viable, issues of the scale of airport activity and associated material
planning issues cannot be separated from this application.
A full description of the
works is available from the Cornwall
County Council website.
They are as follows;
- The widening of the
Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)
designated taxiway ‘Bravo’ from 18 metres to 23 metres, including some
localised widening - The widening of part of
the CAA designated northern
taxiway ‘Alpha’ from 18 metres to 23 metres - The re-profiling of part
of the CAA designated
northern taxiway ‘Alpha’ and the re-grading of the taxiway strip - The widening of part of
the CAA designated northern
taxiway ‘Alpha’ and the re-grading of the taxiway strip - The re-profiling of part
of the CAA designated taxiway
‘Echo’ and the regarding of the taxiway strip - Minor re-profiling of
the runway near both runway ends, following removal of Runway Hydraulic
Arrester Gear - Works relating to
removing any small structures, debris and the provision of sub-surface ramps
to taxiways to ensure safe operation of aircraft - New navigational
equipment and ILS with associated approach lighting to replace existing
military navigational equipment - The modification of
access and creation of a temporary construction compound.18
These works are due to take
place in two phases in accordance with the Interim Development Strategy, as
agreed by the Executive on the 11th October 2006.
Phase one works are underway
and due to be completed shortly. These works include a new entrance to the
terminal, better catering facilities, additional car parking, and a new fuel
farm.19
Phase two works have been
suspended while boundary issues with the MOD are resolved. They involve civil
engineering (e.g. apron/taxiway widening, runway and taxiway re-profiling),
electrical engineering, an extension to the terminal building, expansion of the
departure lounge and the creation of a new departure gate, new retail
facilities and roadside elevations.20 The eastern car park will be extended eastwards by 225 spaces to
provide spaces for future passenger growth.21
1.5
Expenditur
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