Truemors
Cornwall - Newquay Airport Expansion - The Case Examined - Elizabeth Baines - Chapter 2 
Newquay Airport Expansion:
The Case Examined (Revised
Edition)
A report by Elizabeth Baines
Commissioned by Groundswell Cornwall
© Groundswell Cornwall 2007
www.groundswellcornwall.org
Chapter
2
Is
There A Case For Expansion?
UK
air travel has increased five-fold over the last 30 years.
Half
the population now flies at least once a year.26
Department for Transport, The
Future of Air Transport,
December 2003.
Summary
- While there has been uninterrupted growth in air travel over the
last three decades, gathering pace over the last ten years, this trend is
unlikely to continue in the long term. An increasing number of factors,
from an uncertain economic outlook, continuing rises in fuel costs,
government action on climate change, and increased concern over the
environmental impacts
of expansion, mitigate against it. (2.1)
- The Government’s approach to air travel is typified by concern at
its impact, while encouraging its growth. (2.2)
- There is little or no evidence to suggest that an increase in
passenger numbers through Newquay airport will enable it to become
financially viable. The airport’s importance to business in Cornwall is
overstated. (2.3)
- There has been little opposition to the expansion of the airport
in Cornwall
although a number of expansion plans at regional airports have been
rejected or abandoned. (2.4, 2.5)
2.1
The rate of growth in air transport
Air travel in the UK has
increased five-fold over the past 30 years.27 The last few years in particular have witnessed unprecedented
levels of growth in air travel. This has been widely attributed to the
no-frills sector, with 92% of the 30 million additional passenger trips
occurring between 1998 and 2002 having been new trips taking place on no-frills
services.28
In The
Future of Air Transport, the 2003 Aviation White Paper, the Government anticipated that
air passenger numbers would continue to rise at their current rate and
championed airport expansion to accommodate this growth.
The Government’s preferred scenario for airport expansion as set out in this
White Paper would see the number of air
passenger trips rise from 215 million in 2004 to more than double this number –
466 million – by 2030.29 These forecasts are supported by institutes such as the Energy
Research Centre who predict that air travel costs for passengers are likely to
continue to decrease.30
However, the air passenger
number predictions and conclusions drawn by the 2003 Aviation White Paper are
challenged on a number of fronts, not least by the same White Paper:
a)
The Aviation White Paper recognizes that ‘simply building more and
more capacity to meet potential demand would have major, and unacceptable, environmental impacts, and
would not be a sustainable approach.’31 Yet the White Paper makes no provision for reducing demand for air
travel.
b)
Government forecasts for air passenger numbers have been
criticised for being unconstrained as they are based on market prices and fail
to take account of environmental costs and anticipated environmental
legislation in
response to climate change.
c)
the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS),
creating binding targets for reductions of CO2 (see 4.18), is likely to have a
negative impact on air passenger growth. The inclusion of the aviation industry
in the EU ETS is likely to have a
negative impact on the real cost of flying.
d)
the recent sharp increase in air travel has been heavily dependent
on the low real cost of flying. Slowing consumer spending and rising costs of
air travel have a profound effect on air passenger numbers; despite continued
reports of large profits, no-frills airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet have
recently been discounting tickets to keep attracting passengers in the face of
slowing rates of UK
consumer spending.32
e)
in relation to the Department for Transport’s national consultation
in 2003, The Future Development of Air Transport in the United Kingdom, many of those interviewed
felt that the models for air passenger number forecasts did not take into
account the increasing provision of alternative forms of transport such as
rail.33
f)
outside the UK,
an increasing number of experts are challenging the conventional wisdom on the
future of world oil supply. This is a quote from a submission to the Brisbane
Airport Authority in Queensland, Australia: ‘One of the assumptions supporting
[the]…growth forecast is that oil prices will remain relatively cheap into the
medium to long term. This is seriously flawed in that it ignores the impact of
world oil depletion, which will see prices remain volatile in the short term
and increase dramatically in the medium to long term. Demand [for air travel]
may continue to grow in the short term, but will most likely decline from
approximately 2010.’34
Increases in air passenger
numbers are based on fuel cost projections by the US Department of Energy, the Energy
Information Administration (EIA). The same report adds: ‘The EIA and its
projections…have been widely discredited by oil industry experts for starting
with a ‘politically acceptable’ demand projection then ‘tweaking’ the supply
assumptions to match it.’35 Claims over oil supply made by the EIA are lacking in credibility
(see Chapter 3).
2.2
Government policy
The Government’s ‘sustainable
way forward’ is based on an approach that they claim ‘reflects people's desire
to travel further and more often by air’; in a recent UK survey conducted by
the Government, more than one in five respondents said that they would like to
fly more frequently in the future.36 The Government argues that ‘not providing additional capacity
where it is needed would significantly damage the economy and national
prosperity’.37
The 2003 ippr report, The
sky’s the limit: policies for sustainable aviation, draws a parallel between
the Government’s policy on aviation and the Tory Government’s previous policy
on road building in the 1980s:
In response to steep
forecasts of traffic growth, the Tory government unveiled plans for a huge road
building programme, subsequently abandoned.
In the 1998 White Paper the
Labour government argued that such an approach was unsustainable, requiring the
management rather than the blind acceptance of demand to travel by car. Given
the growing environmental impacts associated with steep forecasts for air
travel, the Government should apply the concept of ‘congestion charging’ to airports.38
To tackle costly congestion
at the main London
airports in the face of their predictions for increases in air traveller
numbers, the Government has proposed encouraging growth at regional airports,
thereby reducing pressure in the capital.39
Their policy is to ‘encourage
the growth of regional airports to serve regional and local demand.’40
The focus of this policy is
on benefit brought to the capital by reducing demand.
Increasing demand elsewhere
is likely to prove counterproductive.
2.3
Is there a demand for aviation growth in Cornwall?
I
am excited about the plans for the new terminal expansion
which
will ultimately be able to take up to 700,000 people.
Chris Cain, Project Director
for the Airport Development Team at Newquay
Airport.
Following the trend
throughout the UK, and
fuelled by low-cost carriers, demand for air travel in Cornwall has grown significantly. Newquay Airport has seen record numbers of air
travel passengers during the past few years and predicts that numbers will
continue to increase in the years to come. The predictions do not factor in any
of the anticipated cost increases discussed above.
Cornwall is relatively marginalised
from global markets due to its respective location within the UK. A report produced by Aviasolutions
in 2003 to assess the impact of the expansion of Newquay, Plymouth and Exeter
airports found that because the far South West is peripheral to the rest of
United Kingdom and to Europe it relies more heavily on air transport for access
to global markets.41
The significance of this is
unclear as the export of goods from Cornwall is
by road, rail or sea.The export of services to the global market is unknown,
and the extent of its reliance on Newquay Airport unclear.
Newquay Airport stress that without an air
passenger number increase to 500,000 passengers per annum (ppa), the airport
will remain financially unviable. However,there is little or no evidence to
suggest that an increase in passenger numbers will enable the airport to run at
a profit.
The 2003 Aviasolutions report
warns that, even with an increase in passenger numbers to 1.1 million ppa the
airport will continue to
run at a loss.42
The importance of Newquay
Airport to business in Cornwall is frequently overstated.Only a small minority
of businesses in Cornwall feel that the airport is essential.43Furthermore, whereas
according to the Department for Transport the airport employed in the region of
100 staff in 2003,44 the number of jobs that would be created by the expansion of the
airport is debateable. Low cost carriers in particular generate low levels of
employment and operate on a cost cutting scheme which involves reducing staff
numbers to keep air travel costs low.
When the airport runs into
further financial difficulties as a result of rising oil costs, Peak Oil and
climate change related legislation, many jobs will be lost as a result.
Aviation’s relationship to
employment and the business sector, and the subject of leisure (tourism)
travel, are covered in full in Chapter 5.
2.4 Public opinion towards Newquay Airport
expansion
There has been little
opposition either to the recent developments at Newquay Airport
or to the expansion planned over the next few years. The Department for
Transport’sThe Future Development of Air Transport in the UK: A Report on the
General Public Responses to the Government’s Consultation (2003) received less than 10
emails and letters about the expansion of Newquay airport.
In general the responses
received were ‘very largely in favour’ of expansion.45
This is surprising
considering the strong opposition to airport expansion elsewhere in the UK.
2.5 Airport expansion elsewhere in the UK
Coventry (2004):
A planning inquiry rejected
expansion of the airport following Warwick
district council’s opposition to Coventry
Airport’s plans to build
a new terminal that could handle up to 2 million passengers,46
Luton (2007):
Plans to build a full length
replacement runway were abandoned following concern by airport bosses over the
time it would take to make a return on their investment.47
Manchester (2007):
A proposal to expand the
airport onto green belt land and increase passenger numbers from 22 million a
year to 50 million by 2030 was rejected after a planning inquiry headed by the
local Macclesfield borough council.48
Birmingham (2007):
Plans to build a new runway
at Birmingham International Airport
have been abandoned due to a lack in sufficient air passenger numbers. A £120
million runway extension is planned instead.49
Stansted (ongoing):
Expansion plans for the
airport were rejected last year on environmental grounds by Uttlesford district
council. A public enquiry has been running since May and is due to be completed
in October 2007. The results will not be available until 2008.50
© Groundswell Cornwall, October 2007
Chapter 2 - Is There A Case For Expansion?
Sources:
- 26 Department
for Transport, The Future of Air Transport,
Summary, December 2003, website visited 07/07:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/air/summary/thefutureofairtransportsummaryb henceforth Department For
Transport,AT.
- 27 Department
for Transport, AT, Summary. - 28 UK
Energy Research Centre, Predict and
Decide (II): The potential of economic policy to
address aviation-related climate
change, June 2006, weblink visited 07/07,
available for download: http://www.hlst.heacademy.ac.uk/current/PredictDecideII.pdf
p.34 henceforth UK Energy Research
Centre, PD (II).
- 29 Department
for Transport, AT, Chapter 2 – The Strategic Framework. - 30 UK
Energy Research Centre, PD (II), p.7. - 31 Department
for Transport, AT, Chapter 2 – The Strategic Framework, our italics. - 32 The
Telegraph, Shares in Ryanair soar on profit forecast,
1st August 2007, website visited 08/07: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/31/bcnryan131.xml
- 33 Department
for Transport, The Future Development of Air
Transport in the United Kingdom: A National Consultation;
A Report on Responses to the
Government’s Consultation: South West, December 2003,
website visited 07/07: http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/air/responses/national/southwest
p.18-9 - 34 McCarthy,
Stuart, from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Australia
(ASPOAustralia), Oil Depletion and the New Parallel
Runway: Submission to the Brisbane Airport
Corporation on the New Parallel
Runway: Draft Environmental Impact Statement/Major
Development Plan,
2nd February 2007, web link visited 08/07,
available for download:
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/ASPO-Qld/McCarthy-Brisbane-Airport.doc p.3 henceforth McCarthy,OD.
- 35 McCarthy,
OD, p.7 - 36 Institute
for Public Policy Research (ippr), The sky’s
the limit: policies for sustainable aviation,
Simon Bishop and Tony Grayling, 2003, weblink visited 07/07see:
pp.14-5 henceforth Institute for Public Policy Research,
TSTL.
- 37 Department
for Transport, AT, Summary. - 38 Institute
for Public Policy Research, TSTL, p.6 - 39 Department
for Transport, AT, Chapter 4 – The Air Transport Sector. - 40 Department
for Transport, AT, Chapter 3 – Environmental Impacts.
- 41Aviasolutions,
A report for the South West Regional Development Agency, South West
Regional Assembly, Government Office South West and Department for
Transport, The Development of an Air Transport Strategy for the Far South
West, June 2003, weblink visited 07/07: http://download.southwestrda.org.uk/file.asp?File=/regionalinfrastructure/
general/SW%20REPORT%20FINAL6603.pdf
p.16 henceforth Aviasolutions, DATS.
- 42 Aviasolutions,
DATS, p.12. - 43 Cornwall
County Council, Newquay Airport Survey 2006 Results,
weblink visited 08/07:
http://www.cornwallstatistics.org.uk/media/powerpoint/c/g/PowerPointAirportSurvey2006_1.ppt#256,1
henceforth Cornwall County Council,
NAS 2006.
- 44 Department
for Transport, The Future of Air Transport: Key
Facts: Aviation in the South West, December 2003, website
visited 07/07:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/air/keyfacts/southwest
p.2 henceforth
Department for Transport, AT SW.
- 45 Department
for Transport, AT ANC, p.5. - 46 BBC
News, Airport expansion plan rejected, 11th
September 2004, website visited 09/07:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/coventry_warwickshire/3648086.stm
and The Independent, Grounded: Another victory in battle to curb airport growth, 10th July 2007,
website visited 07/07: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/transport/article2750502.ece
henceforth The Independent, 10/07/07.
- 47 BBC
News, New runway plans at Luton
shelved, 6th July
2007, website visited 07/07:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/beds/bucks/herts/6276506.stm
- 48 UK
Airport News Info, Manchester Airport car
park plans rejected, 10th July
2007, visited 09/07: http://www.uk-airport-news.info/manchester-airport-news-100707.htm
and The Independent, 10/07/07. - 49 The
Independent, 10/07/07. - 50 UK
Airport News Info, Campaigners prepare for
Stansted enquiry to restart, 27th
August 2007, website visited 09/07:
http://www.uk-airport-news.info/stansted-airport-news-270807.htm
and The Independent, 10/07/07.
© Groundswell Cornwall, October 2007
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