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NanoMarkets Predicts Thin-Film Solar Cell Industry Will Produce More than 26 Gigawatts by 2015

by kferaday | July 8, 2008 at 10:45 pm | 185 views | 3 comments

The G8's failure to reach medium term goals for GHG emissions is not only a missed opportunity to start making real progress on climate change, it's also a missed opportunity to kick the clean tech sector into high gear.

The NanoMarkets report validates that their is real potential in green technologies. But while the forecast of 26 gigawatts and $20 billion in revenues sounds impressive, it represents only about 2 percent of U.S. electricity requirements.

If the G8 leaders and in particular the United States (and their best new pal Canada), would commit to medium term targets, they could use that as an impetus to invest heavily in the green tech sector (through direct investment, tax policy etc.). You might also have the added benefit of beginning to turn around the recession we're clearly now mired in.

Here's just one example. A report from the Department of Energy last month claims that wind turbines could generate 300 gigawatts by 2030, which would power about 20 percent of the US electrical grid. To achieve this generating capacity would require significant growth in the wind industry which only produces about 17 gigawatts right now.

This added capacity could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 25 percent. And all of this for the bargain basement price of $6 per person per year.

The lack of real movement by the G8 is shortsighted in more ways than one. For more NP on this see here.

According to NanoMarkets, a leading industry analyst firm based here, the thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) market will produce the equivalent of 26 gigawatts (GW) by 2015 and will generate well over $20 billion in revenues in that same time frame. This extraordinary growth rate is due in part to the rapid deployment of photovoltaics of all kinds, but also to the low cost, flexibility and manufacturing advantages associated with TFPV compared with the now dominant crystalline silicon PV. By 2015, NanoMarkets expects that TFPV will account for more than half of the world's production of PV. NanoMarkets findings are from a soon to be released report, "Thin Film Photovoltaics Markets: 2008 and Beyond" that will be available the week of July 21st. Additional details about the report are available at www.nanomarkets.net. A companion report that addresses manufacturing issues will follow in August of 2008.

Key findings of the report include:

• The recent success of cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar cells is likely to continue and by 2015 NanoMarkets expects that this will be the single largest segment of the TFPV market considered by active material with $8.7 billion in revenues. CdTe has many advantages such as a high optical absorption coefficient and a bandgap that has been described as close to perfect for PV. Also, many of the environmental concerns that have been associated with CdTe in the past seem to be dissipating.

• In spite of higher price points and outstanding manufacturing challenges, CIS/CIGS is still the star of the TFPV world. The technology promises to combine all the advantages of thin film with higher conversion efficiencies approaching those of conventional crystalline PV. NanoMarkets believes that the CIS/CIGS sector will produce almost $5.0 billion in revenues by 2015.

• Because of its low cost, low weight and ability to be fabricated onto flexible substrates TFPV is likely to be highly preferred for residential applications over conventional PV and by 2015 NanoMarkets expects a $2.3 billion market for the residential TF PV market.

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julianw

at 11:09 on July 9th, 2008

good stuff:

Interesting analysis. Apparently the medium term targets are going to take another two years to negotiate. That delay will do nothing to stimulate green investment, as you point out.

kferaday

at 11:25 on July 9th, 2008

Sure. I did a survey of VCs in Canada about a year ago and there are only a handful really actively into this space -- most of them in the west. In the U.S. it's there -- mostly former tech execs who see this as the new frontier, which it is.