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The presidential candidates and climate change.
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by gerrypopplestone | September 17, 2008 at 05:24 am
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"A problem ignored is a crisis assured": Henry Kissinger.
When George Bush became president in 2000, he questioned whether climate change was real or not and Washington disengaged completely from international negotiations over tackling these issues. Bush has gone down in history as the biggest obstacle to getting any agreement on what the world needs to do about climate change. The only gesture Bush made was in agreeing to “consider and adopt” a long-term goal of cutting emissions by half by 2050 (at last July’s G8 summit). All he got from the rest of the world was a humiliating rebuff.
After these eight years of Bush inaction, both presidential candidates broadly agree that they want to change all that. Both are committed to taking action on global warning in some ways. Both are ready to join a global cap-and-trade system to regulate and reduce carbon emissions. Both say they intend to sell the necessary dramatic changes enthusiastically to the voters. And both promise five million new jobs as a result of this commitment. But whereas McCain in general stresses market incentives as the way forward, Obama also wants to engage more fully with the rest of the world in forging a decent post-Kyoto agreement, and for the US to be a more central player than before in the climate change dialogue. The candidates: Individually, Obama intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels (by 2050) in a plan that ensures all industries pay for their emissions and to reinvest the $15 billion to alternative energy. Obama appears to have thought out the initiatives more fully. He wants to see a federal lead in getting a decent infrastructure to ensure rapid transmission of renewable energy. McCain wants a 60 percent reduction in carbon levels below the 1990 levels (by 2050), but he has not said how he would allocate the carbon credits or the revenue. He also wants an end to the huge government subsidies and research funding of the past. He wants all energy sources, including nuclear energy, as cwell as renewables to be part of the solution. McCain has thought carefully about the car industry. He wants to see a prize for a commercially viable battery package, to encourage the move away from gasoline-powered vehicles. But McCain has called for an end to the ban on coastal oil drilling, whereas Obama would support a compromise: some coastal drilling only if it included support for alternative energy and environmental safeguards. Sarah Palin: Then there is Sarah Palin! This has clearly caused unease among most of the environmentalists since they see her as an ally of the oil industry. What that could mean no one is yet sure. It is unlikely that Palin herself will comment on the issue. She may be what we call a 'dog whistler': making the right noises but getting her dogs to go in the usual direction without saying anything herself. Many of her supporters will be opposed to any adjustments to the staus quo. Most likely, it will become clear what she stands for only when the agreements for all these changes get thrashed out.It could mean supporters of low gas taxes for vehicles and voters in the “rust-state” belt get listened to more sympathetically. Big business might get a better hearing from McCain. Equally though, big business may get harsher treatment from him since industries could take more notice from a supporter like McCain. Who knows?
Sticky problems:
But the central problem by far will be in getting the developing world fully on board and yet negotiating for the G8 countries to carry a heavier burden for cutting emissions at a level that is both acceptable to Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa and all the others. Once that is achieved, there is still the problem of getting them to agree to cut their own emissions to a realistic level. (Anyone who can achieve this should get the next Nobel Peace Prize!)
Is the US ready for all of this? After all, we in Europe are already used to an embryo cap-and-trade policy. We are also used to big taxes for our petrol. And we’ve had far more talk here (and probably media coverage) about global warming and the changes we need to make. Expect far more political problems for the new president in proposing, passing and implementing these new policies aimed at raising the price of energy, especially for all those Americans devoted to their gas guzzlers. They are locked into a car culture and a private transport system in ways that can hardly be changed now. Our cities are more compact, we have a far denser network of public transport available as well as a burgeoning bicycle culture. Both candidates may “understand the challenges involved, and want to lead the US to opportunities for a better world”….blah, blah, blah! But the candidate who wins in the race for the White House will need to be tough enough to face the onslaught of opposition to all these changes: he will need also to be skilled at winning coalitions of support among senators and congressmen, and he will need to 'charm the pants' off the rest of the world too! None of that will not be easy.
Postscript (added 18th September):
Of course, there are lots of things that all candidates are not saying about their plans on the issue of climate change. What they won't talk about is probably far more telling than the little they have said on the topic so far! Here are five of their shibboleths:
ONE: Ask Sarah Palin about the oil in the ground in Alaska. Does she intend to allow the oil companies to drill for it? She won't talk about it!
TWO: Ask Barack Obama whether he seriously intends to tax gas/petrol to cover the true costs involved. A report (The Real Price of Gasoline) by the International Centre for Technology Assessment, suggests they are four times the current prices charged at the pumps! This would entail hefty increases to catch up!
THREE: Ask them, too, about the costs of ethanol production in the US, compared with Brazil. The US uses corn to produce its ethanol, compared with sugar used by Brazil. In 2007 the price of corn in the US doubled in price over the 2005 price as a result of its use for ethanol production. It is now the world's leading ethanol producer. Yet, in 2007, the US used 81 million tons of corn to produce 8.3 billion gallons of ethanol. This represents a fifth of the country's entire grain harvest; yet it will only supply less than four percent of the fuel needs for the country's vehicles! Is this energy waste really worth it?
FOUR: Ask them about the relative cost of producing this ethanol in the US, compared with the costs of producing it in Brazil. Brazil uses sugar to produce its ethanol (half of its cane harvests go into ethanol production). Brazil does this efficiently and at costs less than US ethanol costs (see the discussion of these issues in Lester Brown's many detailed books on the environment). Yet the US imposes an import tariff on Brazil's ethanol (I believe its about 50%). Ask them why.
FIVE: Ask them about the effect of all this ethanol production using crops, on the costs of food world wide. The grain required to fill an SUV's 25-gallon tank with ethanol just once could feed one person for a whole year. Lester Brown says that, given there are 860 million car owners in the world, compared with 2 billion hungry people, who is likely to win out when the car owners earn roughly $30,000 a year compared with the hungry souls earnings of $3,000. Work it out!
These are the five key issues that all the candidates need to talk about if we are to give a true picture of how they will tackle climate change.
Do they have the bottle to really change the direction the US is going, by facing the public with these issues in order to change direction? I doubt it.
As Kissinger said: "A problem ignored is a crisis assured".
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (21)
at 07:38 on September 17th, 2008
gerrypopplestone, I like this story. It's good stuff.
it is clear: we need Barack Obama with his supporter Al Gore.
See http://members.nowpublic.com/world/why-barack-obama-should-be-next-president-usa
at 08:35 on September 17th, 2008
gerrypopplestone, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 08:37 on September 17th, 2008
And I managed it in about 700 words!
at 08:46 on September 17th, 2008
Kudos!
at 09:48 on September 17th, 2008
Sarah Palin is not an "ally of the oil industry", and is in fact the opposite, the least corrupt politician out there, wanting to drill in Alaska which the oil tycoons don't want (they want control over mid-east oil).
Climate change is natural, and any politician who thinks "global warming" is man-made is corrupt, because they have access to the facts, unlike most people (except for me, a professional in a related field).
Pollution is bad, it's true, but most of the world's pollution now comes from China, and is growing quickly, so there's no point in America going through hell to reduce pollution by 2% while China does nothing.
you want to stop pollution and save the environment: stop eating beef, and never buy anything "made in china" again.
at 13:32 on September 17th, 2008
Hi forthbetta, your comment "any politician who thinks "global warming" is man-made is corrupt", so you are sponsored like all others by US coal industry, that is spreading that $hit. The US has 50 % dirty coal fired plants for electricity making, where is difference to China.The CO2 kills you at home with Hurricanes, Tornados, heatwaves, droubts. You will see where you end with the coal lobby. The world has not endless tolerance, we want to take a breath. And we will know how to do so.
at 02:57 on September 18th, 2008
Actually, just looking at the graph of CO2 emissions over time shows the huge increases over time. That was what convinced me really.
at 02:22 on September 18th, 2008
If you measure pollution per head of population, the figures for the US are something like five times worse than China. Also, it's not true that China is doing nothing. It has upgraded its Environment Pollution Unit to a Ministry and has developed a strategy with a set of targets.
at 12:47 on September 17th, 2008
gerrypopplestone, I like this story. It's good stuff.
This is a great piece - well done. I really enjoyed reading it.
at 13:18 on September 17th, 2008
gerrypopplestone, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 13:40 on September 17th, 2008
gerrypopplestone, I like this story. It's good stuff. "climate change". The Europeans are surprised, that no candidate is reacting to the 2008 "Hurrican alley" finally stretched from Florida to Texas. If ocean surface water temp. increases from 25°C to 27°C the air sucks the water up, hurricane triggering. The primary effect is shock heating by UV radiation through ozone layer deplation. No politician in the US should win the elections ignoring the home land hurricane security.
at 01:39 on September 18th, 2008
Climate change is natural. It's cyclic. I distrust any politician who whips the electorate into a frenzy about it, telling them to believe that by doing certain things they can eradicate it. They can't, just as King Canute couldn't hold back the tides.
Worse are the politicians who whip up the electorate to fever pitch and then get voted into power on the back of it.
Have the USA cleaned up the Aleutian Chain yet? It's one thing giving land back to its rightful owners (the Inuits), and quite another giving them back the land they lost in such a state that it's practically useless to them.
Yes, the Chinese are the world's biggest polluters. Look at what they've done to the Yangtze river. They've just found commercialism after so many years of being in the dark. Kept there by the western world. They're catching up now, and the western world doesn't like it. All the 'major' nations are the same - blame each other, while in fact blaming no-one. Then nothing gets done because there just isn't the will.
Good story. We all just need to open our eyes and minds a little wider, that's all.
at 02:28 on September 18th, 2008
Thanks, guys! Ive got little time for people who say climate change is not happening. The Stern Report was produced by a serious scientist with an impeccable background. The Chinese may be heavy polluters but so were we during our Industrial Revolution. When did all the British forests that used to cover the island disappear? There is something a bit hypocritical about the West lecturing the Rest about what they need to do!
at 11:13 on September 18th, 2008
Apparently, Stern worked for the World Bank (as Senior Vice-President), which is stealing rainwater from Bolivian peasants, among other horrible deeds. I can write a 700-page paper full of statistics to prove anything, true or false. I trust facts, not prophesies & statistics.
at 11:01 on September 18th, 2008
Remember that i did admit pollution is a major problem, but climate change happens naturally. The world is not warming significantly, and in fact is surpirisingly stable right now. To say 1 degree of warming in 130 years is man-made forgets that the last great ice age ended with a 20 degree warming in 50 years, changing sea-levels world-wide.
Pollution and environmental destruction can be solved in a variety of ways. Plastic & paper can be made from corn & hemp respectively, but that's for the corporations to decide. On a daily basis we can, as i've mentioned, not eat beef, and not buy products "made in china" anymore.
By the way, for those afraid of hurricanes & droughts due to global warming (natural or man-made), during the last great ice age the Caribbean was actually warmer due to more land exposed which blocked cooler Atlantic waters, causing more extreme hurricanes. Also, when the earth is warmer, much more rain falls world-wide.
at 03:55 on September 19th, 2008
Sarah Palin looks like a Bush "plant", (no pun intended). I suspect we would see the same sympathetic business-as-usual approach to the oil industry and the global players.
at 07:22 on September 20th, 2008
Thanks, Mettacara. When I first wrote it, (without the postscript) I realised how little each candidate had committed themselves to tackling climate change and then I thought about all the issues they were not talking about!
at 08:26 on September 23rd, 2008
gerrypopplestone, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 01:47 on September 26th, 2008
Thanks, Paschen. All told, they are not really saying very much!
at 07:32 on September 26th, 2008
When Gerry first asked me for permission to used a photo I was delighted. I have read this article several times and followed the commentary. This is a very good article. I hope it has been published on more sites so more people will be able to read it.
at 06:22 on February 2nd, 2009
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