Scientific tidbit says Sun not all that responsible for winter

by YankeeJim | October 10, 2011 at 04:17 am

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Sometimes scientists study things for which the outcome rules out more than it rules in. That is what I conclude here.

The evidence in this study does not say that human activity causes global warming. That is a throw-away reference in this story. The evidence is that the Sun’s activities may have a marginal effect on winter cold in the Northern hemisphere correlated with 11-year cycles.

What it doesn’t say is where we are in the 11 year cycle and it says nothing about this winter. For that, you must turn to the Farmer’s Alminac.

“Solar cycle can influence winter weather

Posted on October 10, 2011 - 07:56 by Kate Taylor

British scientists say they've established a link between the sun's 11-year cycle and cold winters in Northern Europe and parts of America.

The study, by the Met Office, Imperial College London and the University of Oxford, finds that levels of ultraviolet light can influence the severity of winterweather in parts of the northern hemisphere.

"We’ve been able to reproduce a consistent climate pattern, confirm how it works, and quantify it using a computer model based on the laws of physics," says Adam Scaife, one of the Met Office scientists involved in the research.

"This isn’t the sole driver of winter climate over our region, but it is a significant factor and understanding it is important for seasonal to decadal forecasting."

New data from the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite indicates that UV levels may vary much more than thought over the 11-year solar cycle.

Adding this data into the Met Office’s climate model produced results that mimicked observed climate records.

It seems that in years of low UV activity, unusually cold air forms over the tropics in the stratosphere, about 50km up. This is balanced by a greater easterly flow of air over the mid latitudes. The pattern spreads down to the surface, bringing easterly winds and cold winters to northern Europe.

When solar UV output is higher than usual, the opposite occurs, with strong westerlies bringingwarm air.

What the data doesn't do, though, is explain global warming, as there seems to be little impact on temperatures globally.

"Compared with the effect of man-made emissions over the last century, solar variations still have a very minor effect on long-term global climate trends, but this study shows they may have a detectable influence on winter climate," says professor Joanna Haigh from Imperial College London.”