Sorry Al, But Indeed An Ice Age Cometh

by moonwolf | April 24, 2008 at 04:55 pm | 661 views | 8 comments

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Opinion: After looking past the global warming rhetoric, and the clamour to clamp down on carbon dioxide, at the hard long-term temperature data going back hundreds of thousands and millions of years, the numbers seem right on the line pointing at a drastic downturn in global surface temperature. I have also been looking into a much more dangerous atmospheric crisis, Global Dimming. This phenomenon, characterized by a substantial reduction in the level of solar energy reaching the earth's surface is a proven global reality, the repercussions of which are immense: dropping surface temperatures around the globe coupled with ever poorer crop yields and profound changes to our oceans due to decreasing levels of ultraviolet light reaching both the land surface and into the upper levels of our oceans to spur photo-synthesis.

My change of position on this issue does not mean I believe we should all climb in our SUV's and forget about our potential effect on the earth's atmosphere. Those studying Global Dimming have associated the causality of the phenomenon to sunlight being reflected back into space from the increasing levels of suspended particulate in the atmosphere, generated by industrial activity and the burning of fossil fuels, thus we may be hurrying the trend towards the next ice age.

What is certain is that the atmosphere and how it interacts with all the influences and variables is far more complex than previously suspected and knee jerk reactions based on fuzzy thinking from limited research and analysis could turn out to be dangerous and create worse problems rather than hopeful solutions.

Should we be attempting to reduce our effects on our atmosphere? Absolutely, because we actually know so little about this ocean of fluid we depend on for our existence, and we can be fairly certain from observations and past experience that unrestricted human activities are likely to have an increasingly negative impact on all facets of our environment.

Human beings need to focus substantial resources on research to begin to dispell the darkness and assemble a more accurate picture of our vital, ever changing atmosphere, and we also need to continue to limit our impact on all realms of our intricately intertwined environment.

Here is a link to a startling and provocative video look at the proof behind Global Dimming and the implications. The research for this video is impeccable, and the conclusions are very disturbing raising more questions than can be answered yet.

THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.

What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.

Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.

All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.

There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770.

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DoctorOk

at 17:17 on April 24th, 2008

Great contribution Moonwolf.

Theory has it that ice ages can occur in one of two ways, including the one you mentioned, the cooling of the planet whether it results from a volcanic explosion obscuring the sun or through a nuclear winter, courtesy of Ahmadinejad of Iran, or from the American Taliban (the Republican Party).

The other possible reason for an Ice Age, experts suggest, is ironically...gasp... global warming. Since global warming will contribute to massive melting of the worlds ice caps, primarily in Greenland, this flooding of cold water into the North Atlantic risks disrupting the gulf stream. This warm water current that by its existence makes many regions of the North Atlantic (like the Northeast US, Canada, and Europe) inhabitable and relatively hospitable, risks being rendered ineffective or neutralized because of ice cap melting.

The end result of global warming is not likely a permanently hotter planet. Rather, the end result can be a cataclysmic ice age triggered by our own doing, global warming.

René

at 18:23 on April 24th, 2008

good stuff:

Who knows, moonwolf? it's anybody's guess, I guess. It's all theory and supposition. but I believe extremely egotistical to claim the human race can change the planets and solar system and what happens to them. Unless we just try to blow them all up.

Only G.O.D. really knows.

moonwolf

at 18:35 on April 24th, 2008

Thanks René. I believe we do change this planet, but as to how much, over what period of time, and how what we do interplays with the normal fluctuations is anybody's guess at this point. Much more research is required and with all the challenges facing human beings on this limited globe focussing on environmental research should be a high priority.

The reason I know we affect the earth is by looking at photos from space. The lights we generate on the surface can be seen from a great distance into space, and observations from astronauts confirms the continuing visible alterations to the atmosphere emanating from industrial an other human activities.

I think it would be prudent for us to err on the side of caution!

moonwolf

at 18:43 on April 24th, 2008

By the way; the video mentioned in this editorial was on PBS, and is very informative.

BigT

at 19:26 on April 24th, 2008

good stuff:

[Read this in a joking tone]: moonwolf just received a big payment from Chevron, BP, and for good measure Halliburton. [Drop joking tone]

I remember giving a speech against the theory of global warming in one of my freshman Honors classes at college just a mere four years ago. One of my arguments centered around the fact that we really don't know what is going on with the environment.

Models don't include such things like cloud cover, the influence of the sun, percipitation, and, yes, global dimming. One indignant girl asked me how I could believe this stuff so I told her that if she wanted she could look at my sources - she still hasn't taken me up on my offer.

Will moonwolf's evolving opinion about the climate sway anyone? Probably not. People have more of an emotional attachment to global warming/climate change than a rational opinion.

Good for you moonwolf. Good stuff.