Tropical Storm Risk Group Forecasts Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Activity
The British forecasting group Tropical Storm Risk released their updated Atlantic hurricane outlook on 5th June. They are forecasting between 14 - 15 (14.4) named storms of which 7 - 8 (7.7) will be hurricanes and 3 - 4 (3.4) will be intense hurricanes, category 3 or higher. They are also forecasting an above average rate of tropical storm and hurricane landfalls on mainland USA.
The key factors taken into account when drawing up this forecast are anticipated enhancement of high level trade winds which help developing tropical storms to rotate as well as slightly above average sea surface temperatures.
This year's hurricane season got off to a remarkable start with the formation of the first named tropical storm, Arthur, just hours before the official season began on 1st June. The storm made landfall on Belize and later pased over southern Mexico. Arthur was especially unique because it was upgraded whilst over land and never had a single advisory issued by the National Hurricane Centre whilst over water. Tropical storms thrive over warm ocean waters and usually dissipate rapidly over land hence the obscure nature of Arthur.
For the full Tropical Storm Risk forecast please visit http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/
For pictures and accounts of previous landfalling tropical storms around the world please visit http://www.typhoonfury.com