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When Will Greenland Ice be Gone Forever?
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by Yuliya Talmazan | July 25, 2008 at 09:11 am
1025 views | 15 Recommendations | 31 comments
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A new analysis suggests that if we pass a certain threshold of total emissions, the ice sheet will melt completely, no matter how high or low a peak CO2 concentration is reached or how quickly emissions are reduced afterward.
So what is the live-or-die emission threshold for Greenland? Climate scientists claim that if total emissions surpass 3,800 billion tons of carbon dioxide, nothing will stop Greenland ice from melting completely over thousands of years. How far are we from reaching this threshold? So far humans have emitted 380 billion tons of carbon dioxide. However, researchers say that the carbon dioxide threshold could be a lot lower in reality due to the inaccuracy inherent in the simplified climate models that they use.
It will take longer -- perhaps thousands of years longer -- to melt Greenland completely, the longer it takes to reach the threshold. But once the threshold is passed, the melting will be irreversible, because CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, and because positive feedback cycles -- where loss of snow increases heat absorption by darker, exposed surfaces -- will propagate melting.
And, the researchers emphasize, the true threshold may be lower than they calculate.
"What we found here is largely an underestimate," Ramstein said. "We have a model that is quite simple, with coarse resolution so that it can simulate for thousands of years. You might actually get complete melting for lower carbon emissions."
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (31)
at 10:13 on July 25th, 2008
yuls.source, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 11:12 on July 25th, 2008
A rather forlorn-looking iceberg just off the coast of Greenland. We were sailing into Qaqortoq (aka Julanaehaab) in early July. Weather sunny and surprisingly warm. Icebergs were majestic but not numerous!
rayb2006 has contributed a photo to this story.
at 11:19 on July 25th, 2008
Hi, some of the photo's need rotating, thanks for using them, Greenland is a great country to see from the air, but the amount of pack ice around it these days is a tad unreal.
The earth is on a cycle and Greenland will become green again but a bit too quick for out liking.
Mick.
mick.chicago has contributed a photo to this story.
at 12:06 on July 25th, 2008
Didn't Al Gore say something about this. How if Greenland loses its ice, the temperature is going to rise dramatically and some land is going to be flooded due to the rise in the ocean level? Not too sure if it was Greenland, but nonetheless, if anyone wants to know more about the problems we are facing with global warming, they should definitely watch 'an inconvenient truth' a documentary by Al Gore.
at 12:07 on July 25th, 2008
In the year 2000 I flew across part of Greenland in May and all was covered in ice and snow. This year the same area is almost bare. It is a frightening speed that the ice is dissapearing.
at 12:08 on July 25th, 2008
I think they also were speaking about the melting polar caps in the Arctic. I don't remember if it was Michael Byers or Al Gore's documentary that commented about it, but they did mention that polar bears were drowning as a result of global warming.
at 12:09 on July 25th, 2008
yuls.source, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 12:17 on July 25th, 2008
How to show a land with only white color... but one day, maybe the white color will have disappeared...
noukorama has contributed a photo to this story.
at 12:24 on July 25th, 2008
Might as well try to turn off the sun.
at 12:41 on July 25th, 2008
yuls.source, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 12:58 on July 25th, 2008
Cliffs on the western shore of Greenland with ruptured pack ice in Disco Bay.
rneches has contributed a photo to this story.
at 12:58 on July 25th, 2008
While flying over the Atlantic Ocean from London to Los Angles we passed over the southeastern coast of Greenland where we discovered a swirling sea of icebergs. I quickly pulled out my camera to capture this unusual ice formation. I called to my dad sitting a few seats away, and waved him over. His jaw dropped in surprise. "Pretty beautiful huh?" I said. He turned, faced me and replied "wow, isn't that spectacular!".
nia-briana has contributed a photo to this story.
at 13:09 on July 25th, 2008
http://www.robgreenleaf.com
robgreenleaf has contributed a photo to this story.
at 13:57 on July 25th, 2008
It is amazing how you can see lakes and rivers everywhere because of ice and snow melting, and that is something that should not be happenning. Greenland could melt sooner than we expected, and it is necessary to take immediate actions to stop climate change or we will pay the price of our irresponsible way of life.
daalpepo20 has contributed a photo to this story.
at 15:32 on July 25th, 2008
Only the most ignorant believe that CO2 causes global warming! Many who make their living of BS like that pretend to believe it! God bless the poor ignorant dummies!
at 15:45 on July 25th, 2008
And I say that only the most ignorant believe there is another cause of global warming other than CO2.
Now we have both made claims that offer no proof, substance or authernticity.
at 04:42 on July 26th, 2008
yuls.source, I like this story. It's good stuff.
I feel concern as well, as you do !
at 06:29 on July 26th, 2008
West Greenland coast
gmenut has contributed a photo to this story.
at 08:21 on July 26th, 2008
yuls.source, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 08:58 on July 26th, 2008
Sea ice off the coast close to Ilulissat, Greenland. The weather was very gloomy giving a dark, cold image
Katrine R has contributed a photo to this story.
at 10:56 on July 26th, 2008
I was astounded by the sheer vastness of Greenland when we flew over it on the way to Canada and it is saddening to think that these amazing ice fields are disappearing.
Vikalina has contributed a photo to this story.
at 17:14 on July 26th, 2008
Beautiful Greenland from the air, today. We can see snow and ice on these glacier carved valleys. Will this scenery remain like this for many years?
eduair has contributed a photo to this story.
at 07:18 on July 27th, 2008
This image is from the top of the "Red Trail" in Ilulissat, Greenland. What you cannot get out of the picture are the sounds of the the ice breaking, creaking, and groaning as they make their way down the fjord.
jeaimehp has contributed a photo to this story.
at 14:18 on July 27th, 2008
Happy to add my photo from 35,000 feet - it seems an awsome place.
Joe Lafferty, Dundee, Scotland
at 02:43 on July 28th, 2008
I took this photo flying across Greenland on 21st June 2008. The interior was very white, but the edges of the icesheet had large blotches of bright blue meltwater lakes on them, and the edges of the island were free of snow, though there were some spectacular glaciers. An airstewardess was saying that she had flown the route for around 30 years, and in the past there used to be much more ice at that time of year.
Olly Boyo has contributed a photo to this story.
at 02:54 on July 28th, 2008
What is your source for Greenland being "ubiquitously covered in grassy meadows" when Scandinavian settlers first arrived? Sources I've read are unsure of the origin of the name Greenland, and certainly don't claim the island was all green - the southern coastal regions, sure. The icesheet is known to be 100,000s years old (see http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/07/070705-oldest-dna.html), much older than the time when settlers arrived. I feel it detracts from the story to give the impression the island used to be ice-free only a few thousand years ago.
at 06:52 on July 28th, 2008
This was a dogsledging tour I did in Liverpool Land on the east coast of Greenland.
Árni Valur has contributed a photo to this story.
at 12:17 on July 28th, 2008
Greenland from the air was one of the most incredible views I have ever witnessed in all the time I have been a photographer. Global Warming is destroying this outstanding scenery. Polar ice caps are diminishing year after year and sea levels are going to rise. Let's hope everyone of us can make a contribution to prevent climate change from resulting in catastrophic consquences.
jh20071 has contributed a photo to this story.
at 13:01 on July 28th, 2008
bolenwerks has contributed a photo to this story.
at 15:13 on July 28th, 2008
The Winter of 2007/08 was coldadn snowy in mots places around the country. For a while people started joking about the reversal of the global warming trend. The Davis Strait was pretty much frozen from the Arctic Circle and northwards, which is a rare occasion nowadays, and several places saw record or near rcord snows and long speels of very cold weather. But. The Summer of 08 seems to continue the rapid melting of the Polar Ice, and local glaciers in Greenland continue to diminish and draw back to the Ice Cap. So this photo of the spring snow in the hills East of Sisimiut, looking South into the frozen fiords, might be a one-off-winter-thing. We'll have to see what this year brings.
Mads Pihl has contributed a photo to this story.