Georgia: Russian Jet Fired Missile

I'm <a href="http://www.nowpublic.com/georgia_accused_russia_firing_missile_tensions_mount"> adding in a preliminary report </a>. Thanks for getting this up, Merrie. The relations between Georgia and Russia are on knife's edge.

Hi this is a story I recently wrote on the subject. Am going to post it here too. Hope it's not too late.
Regards,
clixy
Bombing Georgia - Is Russia To Blame?
Relations between Russia and Georgia took a turn for the worse when a bomb landed just outside the Georgian village Sjavsjvebi, 60 km North West of the capitol Tblisi, earlier this week. The international community has devoted modest attention to the incident but in the absence of any clarity on the issue there has been no condemnation of sorts of Russia, who the Georgians say is the culprit. The Russian government denies any wrongdoing but the Georgians believe two Russian SU-24 bombers dropped the device, which luckily failed to detonate. The bomb weighed nearly a tonne and if it had exploded, the disaster would have been vast.

What to make of this, given the absence of any international outcry over the situation? The fact that Russia might be responsible for the bomb in Georgia highlights that the Russians (are perceived to) entertain the notion that agression is inextricably linked with recent decisions by Georgia to solidify its Western leanings. That's the one safe conclusion to draw. The only clue analysts trying to make heads or tails of the story can work with is that the timing does not seem to be a coincidence. The bomb fell days after a NATO office opened 26 July in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, one of the Georgian regions that's involved in a 15 year strife to break away. On the one hand, the bomb might be a sign of Russia's objection to the NATO office right in the heart of a town that's pro Russia. On the other hand, the timing makes the theory very plausible that the Georgians stagemanaged the entire thing. That is what Georgian rebels are saying.

The parties left guessing are the outsiders of course, but the players involved know better. And they harbor the secret of just how dangerous a signal this was. The NATO observers say they haven?t got the faintest idea who did this, which is truly sad because it undermines the very idea of their office's mission; providing reliable information.

Most of the acts of aggression that have taken place in the region over the last years are shrowded in similar obscurity. Analysts are simply left with the usual mish mash of highlights and developments to further build theories based on one or two sparse facts that can be taken for truth. The BBC published a question and answer session in which it analyzes the precarious relations between the two countries which have been strained ever since 1999, and attributes most of it on the collapse of the Soviet Union whilst not neglecting Russia's desire to once more control the former federations. That is pretty much most of what can be considered beyond doubt. But in terms of Georgia itself, this country is affected far worse by the interior problems related to the breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That is not to speak of its role in neighbouring Chechnya. To begin to distill fact from (manufactured) fiction is a mega task. Russians are great masters of mixing official policy with underground insurgency and their idea of doing business abroad differs vastly from what is announced publicly.

On the record, the Russians say that the Georgians are pursuing anti Russian foreign policies. That's as blunt as they are when they are talking about Georgia's plans to become a full NATO member and its involvement in the GUAM group- the four countries in the region that struck up an alliance to counterbalance Russia's influence, something that is never rationally explained but nevertheless assumed as if a natural right by Kremlin officials. The other members of GUAM are Ukraine Azerbaijan and Moldova, also countries faced with Russian meddling. A real sore point for Russia is Georgia's participation in the so called energy corridor in the Caucasus which links to the Caspian and bypasses Russia altogether. Energy, after military stability, is the main component of Russian foreign policies involving the former USSR members. Oil and gas pipelines transporting energy to Russia are vulnerable from being illegally tapped by the countries hosting them. In Georgia?s case, this is a main reason for the country?s efforts to court all parties that counterbalance Russia?s influence, and which aside from NATO also include Turkey and the US. Russia watches these efforts with hawk?s eyes and was highly critical of the 2003 Western aided 'Rose' revolution that brought the current Georgian government led by Mikhail Saaskashvili, in power. At the relatively few times that high ranking officials do speak out, it is still difficult to guess what their real involvement is. The rhetoric isn't all that different compared to Cold War times.

Rebels in some Caucasian areas also target the pipelines to get back at oppressors. And Russian soldiers are also accused in some cases of blowing up pipelines. In January 2006, the president Saaskashvili accused Russia of destroying a pipeline that carries gas to Georgia. Russian officials said this was hysteria and denied they had anything to do with it.

What is of key importance in all the murky developments is Russia's intention and its role in the world at large. At the very least, this does not stroke with Georgia?s NATO involvement. Last April Russia threatened to fully suspend its membership of the NATO's Conventional Forces Treaty in Europe. This treaty regulates the deployment of conventional weapons. Russia claimed this was in response to US plans to station anti-missile bases in Eastern Europe, will only be there to threaten Russia's nuclear arsenal which it said upset Europe's security balance. The US has said that the treaty is there solely to shield Europe from a perceived threat from rogue nations such as North Korea and Iran. However, everybody knows that Russia has plenty of experience deploying tactics which classify for branding a nation a rogue state. But then, some people say the same about the US.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister said Russia was concerned by the fact that NATO military infrastructure is creeping up to the Russian border. It is a statement often heard from the Russians. At the same time, Georgia and some other former USSR republics are turning to NATO saying it provides protection from Russia.

Angelique van Engelen is a freelance writer in Amsterdam. She has been a foreign correspondent in the Middle East in the 1990s and now runs www.contentClix.com, a writing agency. She is available for freelance writing assignments.