160 US Cases of Swine Flu; Why is H1N1 an Ongoing Concern?

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The Swine Flu pandemic has entered week three and there are now 160 confirmed cases of the illness in the United States, with one death of a 21 month old toddler in Texas on April 27, 2009.  The Texas Swine Flu fatality is the first in the US.  Reports of two possible Swine Flu fatalities in California were found to be unrelated to H1N1 infection.

Every year in the United States 30,000,000 people get ill with the flu.  Of that 30,000,000 only 200,000 cases, less than 1%, become serious enough to end up in hospital.  There are an average of 36,000 flu related deaths in the US each and every year, less than .1% of those who fall ill.

So why is H1N1, the so-called Swine Flu virus, an ongoing concern?  So far the fatality rate is elevated over what is normal for a flu of any kind in the US (.625% compared to .12%) but this increase is not an overwhelming one.  Is all the talk of a potentially fatal global pandemic premature?  Yes, and no.

The H1N1 Swine Flu virus is cause for real concern for the simple fact that it has never been seen before in a human strain.  The fact that it is new means it is unknown and this alone would cause health officials to send out the alarm.  An unknown virus has the potential to make a significant impact on a population; how it spreads , how it is mutating, how it manifests, if it can be treated, and how it kills are all wild cards that need to be answered.

The Swine Flu virus appeared particularly threatening for a few key reasons: it killed many people in Mexico for reasons still not fully identified; it combines strains of swine flu, bird flu and human flu in a manner that has never been seen before; it has crossed species, combined and mutated; the H1N1 strain has been a factor in some of the most devastating flu pandemics of the modern era including the Spanish Flu and Russian Flu outbreaks which killed tens of millions of people worldwide.

Like previous H1N1 based flu pandemics the Swine Flu of 2009 also appears to be more fatal to healthier individuals.  In a normal flu outbreak the people who succumb to the illness are usually very old, very young, or suffering from preexisting health concerns.  With H1N1 Swine Flu the majority of the deaths have occurred among younger, otherwise healthy individuals with robust immune systems.  The parallels between Swine Flu 2009 and past pandemics that killed so many are a huge factor in the ongoing concern.

As of May 3, 2009 160 cases of the H1N1 Swine Flu in the United States had been identified across 21 states.  While understanding of the virus increases each day this number is expected to increase and officials are not sure the death toll will remain within normal flu fatality levels.

The 21 states with confirmed Swine Flu cases are:

• Arizona; 4
• California; 24
• Colorado; 2
• Connecticut; 1
• Delaware; 4
• Florida; 2
• Illinois; 3
• Indiana; 3
• Kansas; 2
• Kentucky; 1 (from Kentucky but being treated in Georgia)
• Massachusetts; 8
• Michigan; 2
• Minnesota; 1
• Missouri; 1
• Nevada; 1
• New Jersey; 7
• New York; 50
• Ohio; 1
• South Carolina; 13
• Texas; 28, 1 death
• Virginia; 2