vanishing beef

The process of liquidation of the U.S. beef cow herd -- underway due to combined reasons of drought, expense hyperinflation, cartel monopolization of processing and marketing -- has reached the stage where the numbers will not provide needed beef supply-levels to the population. 


Where's the beef? It disappeared.


The last (confirmed) number for total cattle in the U.S. (beef, dairy, calves, etc.) was 94,521,000 for 2009, which was way down from past years' numbers of over 100 million head. 


The 2009 supplies of beef from domestic production, worked out to 61.4 pounds per capita for the year, also way down from past supplies of at least 75 pounds (retail weight). 



Since then it's worse. The new numbers for 2010 and 2011 will be issued next week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which "officially" projects a 3.5- to 4-percent drop of U.S. beef output in 2012 from 2011, and continuing drop in cattle numbers.


With any supportive intervention, ranchers would hang on and rebuild herds and resume production. They know how to do it. Washington remains hands-off, as food supply capacity shuts down.

A few comparative features of the crisis:  

U.S. Total Cattle Inventory 

1980: 111,242,000 

1990: 95,816,000 

2000: 98,198,000 

2009: 94,521,000 

U.S. Beef Production, Pounds Per Capita (retail weight) 

1980: 76.7 

1990: 67.7 

2000: 67.5 

2009: 61.4

U.S. cattle herds are in an unprecedented "liquidation mode," in the words of Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University beef expert, in a briefing Dec. 15, 2011, on the webpage series "Beef Short Course" given by University of Nebraska-Lincoln. 


Speaking on the topic of "Beef Cattle Numbers and Outlook," Peel said that in the past, we may have gone through "cycles" of cattle numbers and beef production -- that is, ups and downs of herd size reasons of price, weather episodes, and so on, but that's not the situation now. We are in a new domain. He said:


We "find ourselves in this situation from a number of standpoints... This industry has gotten smaller and smaller over time to a point now, where if you look at inventory [beef cattle], relative to beef production [in volume]" we are in trouble.


..."As the industry has gotten smaller in numbers, we've maintained beef production most of the time [by higher yield per animal, by carefully maintaining breeding stock, etc., in other words, through good animal husbandry practices, and ranchers withstanding heavy financial losses--MGM]...and you can do that for a while, as inventory gets smaller, but at some point in time, you lose the ability to maintain production. You just don't have enough animals to maintain production...."


In 2012, we are going to see a drop in production of about 3.5 to 4 percent year on year. "That's a sign that this industry has reached a point that we cannot maintain production...with the level of animals that we have in this industry."


The drought in the Southern Plains has been "particularly devastating," Dr. Peel said, adding that U.S. beef production is falling backwards to the tonnage level of the early 1960s.