Hirai: PS3 will keep--or surpass--PS2's market share - News at GameSpot

This week, yet another game-industry analyst issued yet another report predicting yet another winner in the next-gen console race. However, unlike a July note which warned that Sony's "techno-elite" strategy could be its downfall, this week's report from the Yankee Group forecast the PlayStation 3 as emerging victorious from the fracas to succeed the current crop of game platforms.

"By the time third-generation consoles reach market maturity in 2011, the PlayStation 3 will once again be the market leader," said Yankee Group in its report. The Boston-based industry-research firm went on to predict that over the next five years, Sony would sell 30 million PS3s in North America, attaining a 44 percent market share.

However, with the PlayStation 2, Sony currently enjoys around a 60 percent market share. The Yankee Group's prediction had Microsoft selling 27 million Xbox 360s to increase its slice of the gaming pie to 40 percent--meaning Sony would cede roughly 16 percent of its North American customers to its archrival. (The report has Nintendo retaining its current approximate 16 percent market share, selling just 11 million Wiis over five years.)