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Iraq a "terrorist Disneyland" if U.S. goes
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by René | May 15, 2007 at 12:34 pm
533 views | 2 Recommendations | 3 comments
LONDON (Reuters) - A U.S. troop pullout from Iraq would leave the country as a potent launchpad for international terrorism and Washington would be forced to go back in within a couple of years, a leading al Qaeda expert said on Tuesday.Rohan Gunaratna told a security conference at Lloyd's of London insurance market that Iraq, like Afghanistan in the 1990s, would become a "terrorist Disneyland" where al Qaeda could build up its strength unchallenged.
If U.S., British and other coalition troops withdrew from Iraq in the next year, he said, "certainly the scale of attacks that would be mounted inside Iraq, and using Iraq as a launching pad to strike other Western countries -- countries in Europe, North America - would become such that after two or three years, the U.S. forces will have to go back to Iraq."
The Singapore-based academic and writer said the epicenter of international terrorism had already switched from Afghanistan to Iraq. "In many ways, the terrorist threat has now shifted 1,500 miles closer to Europe."
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at 12:10 on May 15th, 2007
This is a very good point -and a noteworthy quote. I only take one issue with it. Part of the reason Afghanistan became a terrorist playland in the 1990s was due to U.S. policy -or lack of. Meaning: in the 80s the US partnered with Afghanistan to run a coup against the then USSR -specifically Osama bin Laden was a U.S. ally. The U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan and withdrew support for Osama and his "troops", this combined with the fall of USSR and corruption with Russian Military bread not only hatred towards the US, but an arms dealer's wet dream (pardon the expression).
I could see something similar happening in Iraq, but you have to ask yourself if there is a nuclear or weapons threat there that existed near the size of the one in Russia and Afghanistan (I include Afghanistan because the U.S. was supplying arms, and I am only assuming some if not many were left behind). RPGs and AK47s are in surplus due to the inexpensive costs of the weapons. Possible arms trading the likes of nuclear proportions is unlikely -albeit still possible.
My point: Since Saddam was not against arms trading when he was in control of Iraq, I feel like it's a moot point to say it would be a "terrorist Disneyland"; simply because it was before we got there. It would be a better point and less (maybe) of a propaganda approach to say: if we leave now and the government [Iraqi] cannot police the arms issues in Iraq, it could continue to be a terrorist Disneyland".
at 15:28 on May 15th, 2007
i agree totally with what you say. but this was an 'expert's' assessment of the situation piece from a foreign country, not an American one (pardon me if I include Canada with American, they are on the same continent) and therefore, felt it was an important piece to include all of it, not just an excerpt.
You know, you won't hear this on the 'News".
And I have found some very interesting takes (and different) on the situation coming out of the Middle East, very different from what we get 'fed', with shotgun delivery to drill it into our heads.
at 16:13 on May 15th, 2007
René, I like this story. It's good stuff.
I think Rohan Gunaratna's analysis may be on the optimistic side of the outcome in Iraq if the U.S. pulls its troops out prematurely.
Prestige and credibility are tangible currencies in the Middle East. After the Gulf War in 1990, the U.S. immediately "re-deployed", leaving the Shiites and Kurds to their fate - wanton wholesale murder and annihilation on a scale not seen since Hitler's death camps in World War II. Our "promised" support to the Shiites and Kurds after the war evaporated as fast as our support for South Vietnam and Cambodia after the U.S. declared "Peace with Honor" in Vietnam in 1973 and bugged out 2 years later from the rooftop of the United States Embassy.
Gunaratna says the U.S. would be forced to go back to Iraq in a couple of years as by then Iraq will have disintegrated into a "terrorist Disneyland", a potent launchpad for international terrorism. I think he's right. The question is; would the U.S. go back to Iraq?
I'm not so sure. A major factor for our lack of success in the "civil war" currently going on in Iraq today is U.S. credibility. The Iraqis don't trust us to remain in Iraq. Contrary to what Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi believe, the Iraqi people do listen to CNN and are fully aware that damn near every Democrat, and if you believe the polls, more than half of America, want our troops pulled out if Iraq immediately or in the next 90 days.
Ask yourself this; if you were the average working, struggling to survive Iraqi citizen, just how willing would you be to turn in your al-Qaeda terrorist neighbor to U.S. forces not knowing if those forces would be there next month to protect you?
Having ditched the Iraqi people in 1990 and then again in 2007, I don't much think we can look forward to a warm reception should we choose to come back in a couple of years. The U.S. soldiers may find themselves in the same position as Eisenhower did at the beginning of WW II when he commanded Allied forces to invade German controlled North Africa and was immediately attacked by the French - a supposed ally.
The bigger question Gunaratna failed to address is will there actually be an Iraq in a couple of years if we pull out now? Would the surrender if U.S. forces to al-Qaeda and Islamic miltants, ie radical Islamofascism, be the catalyst that finally brings about the eruption in the Mid-East that has been seeting under the surface for so long? Imagine Shia Iran allies or annexes southern Shia Iraq - Saudi and Egyptian Suni rush to militarily support Iraqi Suni against the threat of an Iraqi/Iranian hegemony - The Kurds, along with Israel our only true allies in the Mid-East, facing slaughter from the Turks in the North and the Suni in the South, fight for their lives and very existence.
If you think Iraq is hell now, pull out and wait a few years. Iraq today will be a Sunday afternoon stroll in the park in comparison.