Is 2007 the year Lebanon has another civil war?

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Pierre Gemayel Public Funeral on 23 November 2006

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Since the assassination of Former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri on Monday, February 14, 2005, resulting with a big hole in the road, death of his bodyguards, Minister Bassel Fleihan and several by-passers, Lebanon has been on the edge.

This is when the Cedar revolution began. Lebanese people demonstrated every Monday for the next month, and on the 1 month memorial March 14, 2005, where almost 1 million and a half Lebanese stood in the Martyrs Square calling for Peace, Independence, Sovereignty and for Syria to finally withdraw their troops and intelligence from Lebanon, and also expressed their disliking for the President Emile Lahoud, calling him the Syrian puppet, who many believe is not legal as the Lebanese Cabinet were forced to vote for him in order to extend his stay.

Counter to the March 14 demonstration, a previous large gathering pro-syrian demonstration happened on March 8, 2005 led by Hezbollah to support Syria and accuse Israel and the U.S. in meddling in Lebanon's internal affairs. But in reality, Hezbollah's main reason was to show how numbered they are in order to intimidate the Lebanese of not requesting the 1559 to be applied on Hezbollah as they will have to surrender their weapons.

Explosions & bomb planting started in New Jdeideh, continued to Sid el Boushrieh, Jounieh, Broumana, Ashrafieh, Mansourieh, Antelias and others, all Christian areas, killing civilians and hurting more, and assassinating several Lebanese politicians or plain dedicated journalists. George Hawi, newspaper columnist Samir Kassir, Journalist and Parliament Member Gebran Tueni, and most recently Minister Sheik Pierre Gemayel were all assassinated before they could see the Dream Lebanon they have sacrificed for.

Syrian troops withdrew in April 27, 2005 from Lebanon, applying the 1559 and due to international pressure, followed by the return of General Michel Aoun, leader of Free Patriotic Movement on May 7, 2005 after 15 years of exile, and by the release of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea from prison after 11 years.

The Lebanese has started to build hope of a better tomorrow. In summer 2005, parliamentary elections happened for the first time without any foreign interference. Parliament elections happened in July 2005, where the majority elected in the where the March 14 leaders, which in turn gave confidence to Saniora as Prime Minister of the government, with also a majority of March 14 leaders in the government, which only included three Hezbollah members and two Amal members, and left out FPM members, after certain disagreement occured, while March 14 offered a deal to Michel Aoun for the government to contain 3 FPM members and Aoun did not accept.

Due to this, Aoun did not think this government did not have a unified vision, and led him to signing an agreement of understanding with Hezbollah on February 6, 2006.

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah had kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, erupting a war between Israel and Hezbollah that lasted for 33 days, ending on August 14, 2006, mean while Israel had an aerial and naval blockade on Lebanon, which was only lifted on September 6, 2006.

On 21 November 2006, Pierre Gemayel was assassinated just 1 day before Lebanon's Independence day. Public funeral was held in downtown, near martyr's square attended by tens of thousands of Lebanon. The previous Monday was the date set for the government to vote for the International Tribunal in the assassination of Rafic Hariri, which led to the resignation of 5 Shiite ministers (3 Hezbollah and 2 Amal) on November 12, 2006, which had left the government with 19 ministers, and with the death of the Minister Gemayel, there was 18 left, which is exactly 2/3 of the total. This is when Minister of Internal Affairs took back his resignation and joined back the government to make it constitutional again.

On December 1st, 2006 a massive anti-government demonstration led by Hezbollah and supported by FPM and other opposition parties, occurred and continued as a sit-in in Downtown Beirut that still lasts until today. The goal of this demonstration is to topple the Saniora Government. The opposition is convinced that the government is not constitutional, and the head of state Lahoud agrees with them.

After more than 50 days, the opposition decided to escalate in order to achieve their goal of having a national unity government and the right to veto in the government.

With the escalation on January 23rd, 2007, which was supposed to be a general strike, it started at 3 am in the morning with burning tires and blocking the roads. The results of the strike led to preventing many citizens from going to work, and unfortunately it had turned ugly, resulting a toll of 5 deaths and more than 100 injured, due to fist-fights, gun firing, stone throwing and cars burning. By the end of the day The opposition decided to stop the strike.

On the same day of the strike, some government members had traveled to Paris in order to prepare for and participate in Paris III conference that is supposed to raise financial aid to Lebanon that has more than $41 billion in debt, with a couple of them due to the Israeli war on Lebanon in the past summer. The Lebanese government had prepared the reform plan which was presented on Thursday 25 January, 2005. Finally donors pledge $7.6 billion to Lebanon.

In the mean time on Thursday, a clash erupted in Beirut's Arab university between pro-government students and opposition supporting students, which was moved to the streets resulting in a horrific escalation expanding to many areas in Beirut, having cars burned, guns fired and not only by the Lebanese army who immediately surrounded the area of the university, stone throwing, burning an office for SSNP in Tarik Al Jadidah. Leaders from all parties called for their supporters to calm down and stay away from the streets. Thursday's clashes resulted with 4 dead and several injured including members of the army.

Lebanese didn't even have one minute to celebrate the aid that Lebanon received in Paris III, the $7.6 billion were overshadowed by the horrific clashes. 

One thought went through the minds of the Lebanese people who were at home watching TV reporting live from the area of the clashes on the night of 25th January, and it was, will there be another civil war?

Lebanese people are scared, worried, and angry that there is a possibility of a war if things don't get under control by all political parties leaders. Is this period similar to the one that occurred before the 1975 Lebanese civil war? Could the Lebanese do the same mistake twice?