Get ready for them groundhogs

by cynthia yoo | February 1, 2008 at 11:40 am

977 views | 12 Recommendations | 20 comments

Apparently Chicago has seen unseasonably good weather and tomorrow is deemed the day for winter's end in those parts.

When it comes to predicting the end of winter, Brookfield Zoo's groundhogs are, in weather terms, partly sunny.

With Groundhog Day on Saturday, the Chicago Sun-Times compared results -- whether the hog saw its shadow and returned to its burrow, which supposedly means six more weeks of winter -- with historical weather data. If the groundhog doesn't see its shadow, winter will end sooner, so the legend goes.

Wow, I didn't realize the complexities that go into figuring out the precise time for these little folk to peer outside.

In a complex -- and, oh, OK, totally debatable unscientific formula -- we determined the return of spring by temperatures breaking the 50-degree mark, amounts of sunshine and snowfall levels before and after March 16 -- the six-week mark.

By our reckoning, looking at 10 years of available data, Brookfield's hogs got it right 60 percent of the time.

In 2001, economist Paul Sommers of Vermont's Middlebury College analyzed nearly 50 years of weather and groundhog data about Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil. Based on recorded temps, groundhogs by that name were correct about 70 percent of the time.

In a Mathematical Association of America journal, Sommers wrote that his formula for determining success was TEMP=a + b1 TIME + b2 PHIL.

"PHIL is a dummy variable which is equal to 1 during the six weeks following Feb. 2 and 0 otherwise,'' wrote Sommers.

Of course, everybody knows that. Overall, wrote Sommers: Phil's a "phenomenal phorecaster.''

Patty Anderson, lead keeper at Brookfield Zoo's children's zoo, said the predictive practice may have begun in 18th century Europe, where farmers watched hedgehog activity to schedule spring planting.

Tomorrow, keep an eye out for Cloudy.

This year's chores at the west suburban zoo will be handled by female groundhog Cloudy.

Currently in hibernation, Cloudy takes only one breath a minute, her heart beats a meager four to six times every 60 seconds, and her body temperature has dropped from 90 degrees to 38 degrees, said Anderson.

Groundhogs -- which are actually just big rodents -- go into deep doze when air temperatures drop to 50 degrees or below for an extended period.

Cloudy will emerge (or not) from a Plexiglass burrow at around 10:30 a.m. Saturday in the children's zoo, lured perhaps by a carrot-shaped sweet potato cake.

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rocketvengeance

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 12:41 on February 1st, 2008

cynthia yoo, I like this story. It's good stuff. Great groundhog day photos :)

Jordan Yerman

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 13:23 on February 1st, 2008

Wow. I didn't realize that G'hog was here so soon.

lovelyritamaed

at 13:48 on February 1st, 2008

Many businesses in Punxsutawney purchased these and decorated them mostly with themes of their business... this particular groundhog was outside of a church and is one of my favorites!

lovelyritamaed has contributed a photo to this story.

cynthia yoo

at 14:25 on February 1st, 2008

I did see that and I had no idea. Imagine a name as complicated as Punxsutawney plus being a groundhog capital.

Fossil Freak

at 15:12 on February 1st, 2008

These three women came from Portland to watch Punxatawny Phil. They were about to board the Minneapolis-Pittsburgh plane.

Fossil Freak has contributed a photo to this story.

Kadacat

at 15:18 on February 1st, 2008

This is the friendliest groundhog I have ever seen. He lives at Andrew Haydon Park in Ottawa and came so close to me when I was taking the photo that I couldn't even focus with my 70-300mm lens!

Kadacat has contributed a photo to this story.

politisite

at 15:36 on February 1st, 2008

If a ground hog comes out in chicago now.. I would say his yearly cycle is quite off.

mathd

at 15:45 on February 1st, 2008

Shubenacadie Sam from Nova Scotia is getting ready to make his predictation tomorrow. Lets hope for Spring!!

mathd has contributed a photo to this story.

Nicole Billard

at 15:51 on February 1st, 2008

LOVE that furry guy... oh Sam, how I miss your erroneous predictions.

MsPixie

at 16:10 on February 1st, 2008

This is only one of two groundhogs that live under my new deck. I will keep an eye out tomorrow (Groundhog Day) to see if either Woody, or Chuckles come out tomorrow and stay or turn around and return to their den under my deck.

MsPixie has contributed a photo to this story.

Tracy783

at 16:23 on February 1st, 2008

Just soooo wonderful to be a Groundhog on Groundhogs day :)

Tracy783 has contributed a photo to this story.

MMD

at 18:29 on February 1st, 2008

This little guy will be a gift for a couple getting married on Groundhog Day. I knit him a bowtie to match the wedding colors.

MMD has contributed a photo to this story.

The Metamorph

at 19:33 on February 1st, 2008

REALLY hoping for an early Spring! Don't fail me, groundhogs all over the place!

Pike Spice

at 01:54 on February 2nd, 2008

Business must've been slow.

Pike Spice has contributed a photo to this story.

Dr Tempau

at 09:52 on February 2nd, 2008

The late evening sun cast its golden light and this groundhog basked in its warmth creating a nice shadow on a nearby tree

Dr Tempau has contributed a photo to this story.

H.GrahamSmith

at 10:42 on February 2nd, 2008

I'm a pesky groundhog that likes to eat the wiring under the neighborhood cars. I caused so much damage that they captured me and moved me to the wilderness, far far away from the neighborhood.

H.GrahamSmith has contributed a photo to this story.

descend

at 17:41 on February 2nd, 2008

This little guy patiently sat and waited for me to snap a photograph of him. We "named" him George. From Wintergreen, VA
-Descend

descend has contributed a photo to this story.

Slimbo Productions

at 12:17 on February 4th, 2008

Slimbo Productions has contributed a photo to this story.

Slimbo Productions

at 12:20 on February 4th, 2008

One Punxsutawney native and two residents of Myrtle Beach, SC enjoy the annual Groundhog Eve Banquet. All these other photos of groundhogs are nice and all, but there is only one TRUE groundhog...the seer of seers, the soothsayer of soothsayers, the prognosticator of prognosticators...PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL! We Rocked The Knob, because Phil's Number 1, Hey!

Slimbo Productions has contributed a photo to this story.

Dean Holtz

at 21:54 on February 5th, 2008

Taken in my father-in-law's backyard, just north of Orangeville last August. I was only about 5 feet away and I shot it with a Nikon D50 and the Nikkor 18-200 VR lens.

Dean Holtz has contributed a photo to this story.