Miami Condo market - the grim facts

According to HousingPredictor.com which provides independent real estate market forecasts for more than 250 cities in all 50 U.S. States second year in a row Miami leads the list of Worst 25 Housing Markets with the highest forecasted deflation.

The Worst 25 are composed of cities that have the highest probability of reaching their forecast deflation in 2008 from more than 250 local housing markets Housing Predictor forecasts.

25 Worst Markets

 Rank
   Real Estate Market
  2008 Forecast

    1.
   Miami, FL
    − 15.2%

    2.
   Las Vegas, NV
    − 14.6%

    3.
   Detroit, MI
    − 13.6%

    4.
   Phoenix, AZ
    − 13.2%

    5.
   Naples, FL
    − 13.2%

    6.
   Riverside, CA
    − 13.1%

    7.
   Anaheim , CA
    − 12.9%

    8.
   Los Angeles, CA
    − 12.8%

    9.
   Palm Beach, FL
    − 12.4%

   10.
   Atlanta, GA
    − 12.3%

   11.
   Boston, MA
    − 11.7%

   12.
   San Diego, CA
    − 11.3%

   13.
   Fresno, CA
    − 10.9%

   14.
   Indianapolis , IN
    − 10.7%

   15.
   Dewey Beach, DL
    − 10.7%

   16.
   Sacramento, CA
    − 10.4%

   17.
   Cambridge, MA
    − 10.3%

   18.
   Reno, NV
    − 10.2%

   19.
   Fort Lauderdale, FL
    − 10.1%

   20.
   Lawrence, MA
    −   9.5%

   21.
   San Jose, CA
    −   9.1%

   22.
   Bakersfield, CA
    −   9.1%

   23.
   Portland, OR
    −   8.9%

   24.
   Grand Rapids, MI
    −   8.9%

   25.
   Orlando, FL
    −   8.5%

Meanwhile Canadian analysts are urging Canadian snow birds to be cautious in buying up real easte in Florida in general and Miami in particular.

Writing in the Financial Post Diane Francis had this to say

"Here are my observations in the Florida and sunbelt markets favored by Canadian snowbirds and investors:

The grim facts

One year ago there were four times’ more listed properties in Florida than the year previously.

One year ago, completed deals were only 25% of the total of the year before in absolute numbers. These statistics have worsened.

Despite a collapse on the demand side, prices have not fallen sufficiently and some properties are in a total free-fall, without bids for months.

Several condo sellers in Florida offered me rebates of up to 30% of whatever purchase price I paid within a year if local prices collapsed that much. This means they believe prices might. The bonds were benchmarked against their areas’ average real estate prices or some other agreed-upon standard. This may be a good condition to attach to any offer in future if you decide to buy something.
   
Condo prices should be half or less of whatever the established square footage values were in 2006. Most are not which means that whatever they are asking is over-valued.
  
Foreclosures have not kicked in yet to the extent that they eventually will, and the sub-prime problem is mostly in lower-income neighborhoods. However, the hardest hit states (two million foreclosures by 2009) are Florida, California, Texas, Michigan and Georgia.
  
Miami-Dade is going through the worst condo bust since 1975.
  
Excess supplies of housing exist everywhere else in the state, except Orlando, and won’t be mopped up until 2010.
   
Arizona residential prices have been dropped by 9% per quarter in the past year."