A unique look at the economics of aviation safety and a $14 billion investment

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A unique look at the economics of aviation safety and a $14 billion investment

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The United States Congress owes it to everyone worldwide to carefully examine just how the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) plans to spend $14.1 billion it has requested in its proposed 2008 budget. The reason is obvious ― airlines link the modern world, so a snarl in Los Angeles can affect flights in Tokyo and a delay in Dallas can mess things up in Mexico City. But here are some examples of less obvious reasons for close examination:

That $14.1 billion is likely to seed a lot of private investment in aviation. Fortunately, a lot of experts have been planning that investment climate for a decade, especially along the East Coast where air space is saturated. The plan developed by the New England Airport Coalition deserves to be studied by those who intend to invest in flying in that part of the country. And, indeed, Congress should look into the coalition's plan, for there are some new wrinkles on the horizon.

Look out; here come tiny jets with those darn doctors at the controls!

You may ask: "What's wrong with doctors?"

Nothing in the operating room, and everything in an airplane – FAA statistics have long shown the accident rate for doctors as private pilots to be five times greater than other private pilots. Doctors are accustomed to being in charge in critical life-threatening situations. That creates, according to psychologists who've studied such phenomena, an arrogant attitude that doesn't belong in the cockpit.

Historically, that's part of the problem. The other part is that doctors can afford the more complex airplanes. Such planes aren't necessarily easier to handle. Now, new small jets have started rolling off assembly line. The well-heeled docs are waiting.

After years of tests, the FAA a year ago on Sept. 30 certified the Eclipse 500, a light twinjet that can cruise at 370 knots, carry up to six occupants, and has a range of 1,125 nautical miles. Designed to land at more than 10,000 airports in the states, the company has orders on the books for more than 2,600 of the $1.52-million jet.

Economically, the Eclipse 500 may be a great investment. But is the wake-up call for all those 10,000 airports and the communities around them? Or is it for the people who will fly the little jets? (Especially doctors?) Eclipse opened a training center for its new breed of light jet pilot in September, but the number of doctors enrolled was not available.

According to the FAA, the New England plan provides the foundation for a regional strategy for meeting air passenger needs through 2020 and developing a New England airport system that "is efficient, convenient, and reliable."

Indeed the plan, on page 30 of its final report, acknowledges the problems that the Eclipse 500 and similar light jets may cause. It doesn't mention the doctors and their accident rates, of course, but you can get a copy of the New England plan by logging on to the FAA web site. Or go to the coalition site: www.nerasp.com/ You can check on the doctors by studying FAA accident statistics.

The author, who has been a licensed private pilot for 59 years, and is a graduate of an FAA-certified commercial and instrument flight school, interviewed a commercial pilot from Durango, Colorado, while stranded by weather at the Denver airport. The pilot flies MD-80's out of Far East airports. Her enthusiasm for the Eclipse 500 was extraordinary (she'd flown her own light plane for 15 years before going commercial). "But you know what?" she said. "It's the doctors who can afford the little jets, and you know what that means."

Stephanie Reitz, an Associated Press Writer, confirmed in an October 7 article published by Newsday, that demand in New England for the small Eclipse jets has begun to surge. She noted growing acceptance among air taxi services in addition to private-use owners.

If the much-publicized crash into a Manhattan apartment building a year ago of New York Yankee pitcher Cory Lidle and flight instructor Tyler Stanger was also a wake-up call, the question again becomes "for whom?" According to The New York Times, Stanger planned to help Lidle fly his new Cirrus SR20 airplane back to California later that fatal week. Ironically, along the way they could have flown over or near the Albuquerque, N.M. home of Eclipse Aviation.

Experienced pilots knew instinctively at the time of the accident that the probable cause was wind that widened the airplane's turn. Let's face it – turning a small airplane left when the wind blows from the right isn't that easy when you've got tall buildings standing on your left. The FAA eventually said May 1 that pilot error caused the small plane to hit the building last October. According to Lorenda Ward, the investigator in charge, their starting point gave them an available radius of about 1,750 feet, but if they had started on the eastern bank of the East River, they would have had about 2,100 feet. Those 350 feet may have been the difference between life and death.

Meanwhile, the wake-up call is there for whomever wishes to answer.

The economics of the Eclipse 500 can be studied at Eclipseaviation.com. Aviation Week reported in its October 8 edition that Eclipse Aviation has struggled mightily to get production rates high enough to match the company's ambitious business plan or make a dent in a backlog of orders for more than 2,600 aircraft. The company was reported to have redesigned its production lines.

If you're a doctor pilot, take your own statistics to heart. No amount of funding can cure your pilot errors. But if you're just a passenger or someone who lives near an airport, read the plan 10 years in the making by the New England Airport Coalition. According to Marion C. Blakey, FAA Administrator, the plan has been incorporated into the FAA's own flight plan. "In less than 10 (more) years," according to Amy L. Corbett, New England Regional Administrator for the FAA, "the United States will reach one billion passengers annually. The emergence of light jets, the move from wide-body aircraft to smaller jets, and the shift to new entrants are changing the way Americans travel by air."

By the same token, there's little reason to believe that overcrowded conditions and similar flight congestion will not lead to similar regional planning relative to airports like, for example, São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, Benito Juárez International Airport in Mexico City, or Jorge Chavez International Airport near Lima, Peru. In effect, it's reasonable to expect the wakeup call to be heard everywhere by everyone in a responsible position.