Ophelia Moving Northward After Battering NC Coast

As of 9/5, this report is now related to this story.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER... CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Tropical System Looms Off Florida Coast

A surface low off the southern
coast of Florida has the potential to become the season's next tropical
depression, according to Local 6 meteorologist Jerry Steffen.The system is expected to move to the north or northwest in the next few days.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW..IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

New storm threatens eastern Florida

MIAMI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Tropical storm warnings were posted for
Florida's central Atlantic coast on Tuesday as a new cyclone formed and
threatened to hit the state as a weak hurricane by the weekend.

The system was still an unnamed tropical depression, a loose swirling
mass of thunderstorms, but was growing better organized and was
expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia over the
northwestern Bahamas by Wednesday.

Storm prompts warning along Florida coast

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- About 120 miles of
Florida's Atlantic coast were under a tropical storm warning Tuesday as
a new system formed just offshore and threatened to dump up to 15
inches of rain in parts of the state.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 5 PM EDT 2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

Ophelia grows stronger off Florida

MIAMI, Florida (Reuters) -- Tropical
Storm Ophelia strengthened off Florida's Atlantic Coast on Wednesday,
but its slow and erratic movement confounded forecasters' attempts to
predict whether or where it would hit land.

Ophelia coalesced overnight from a loose and swirling mass of thunderstorms and had top winds of 50 mph.

Video: Ophelia has some worried along north Florida coast

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
518 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
DURING THE PAST HOUR...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES...AND A SURFACE WIND OF 55 KT...OR 65
MPH. WHILE THESE DATA APPEAR TO BE GOOD...THEY ARE NOT BELIEVED TO
BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE OPHELIA. NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA SUGGEST THAT THIS
INFORMATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE MOST RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE THE SMALL-SCALE
CIRCULATION FEATURE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NEW FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND DATA OF 62 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORTS THE 5 AM EDT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT...OR 60 MPH.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

Notice in this spaghetti model what the National Hurricane
Center model predicts Ophelia will do -- loop around, presumably back
toward the U.S. southeast coastline.

View the following video for the expected path of Ophelia, including the prediction that it will loop around and return to threaten the southeast coast, again. This expected path reminds me of last year's confused Jeanne before she blew across the state of Florida.

Video:

Tropical Storm Ophelia upgraded to Hurricane Ophelia

Some webcams in affected (and potentially affected) areas:

Daytona Beach

Daytona Beach Pier

WESH TV Daytona

Downtown Jacksonville

Orlando

 Cooper River Bridge, Charleston, SC

Folly Beach, SC

Hilton Head, SC

Tropical Storm Becomes Hurricane Off Fla.

NEW SMYRNA BEACH, Fla. -- Tropical Storm Ophelia strengthened into a
hurricane as it stalled 70 miles off the northeast Florida coast
Thursday, churning waves that caused beach erosion and drenching
Kennedy Space Center.

After reaching hurricane status yesterday afternoon, Ophelia has temporarily weakened to a tropical storm again. Click here for strike probabilities.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

SEP 9 , 2005 10:45 AM CDT OPHELIA MOVING - RE-INTENSIFIES - THREAT TO SOUTHEAST U.S.

By Steve Gregory - Weather Insite

Satellite Imagery and a Hurricane RECON data just coming in indicates that Ophelia is moving slowly Northeastward, and after weakening overnight to a Tropical storm, has now regained Hurricane Intensity as it moves away from the southerly shear that weakened it overnight. The latest position is near 29.5/78.6W or about 125 miles ESE of Jacksonville and the storm is moving NNE at about kts. Central pressure has fallen back down to 985mb (it was 991mb overnight), and the Max Flight level wind has increased to near 67KTS (SE Quadrant) or around 65mph sustained surface wind.

The thermal eye wall temperature gradient (temperature inside the eye versus outside the eye at the 10,000 ft, or 700mb level) only 3degC, but if the trend towards better organization continues, this thermal gradient will as well. While the RECON has not yet reported a true eyewall, microwave imagery indicates that an improved eyewall structure is currently trying to form. The buoy located at 30.0N/80.6W (about 70NM W-WNW of the storm center) is currently reporting North winds of 26mph with gusts to 33mph, and 11 ft seas, while the buoy located about 70 miles SSE of the storm. now has 38mph sustained winds, and gusts to 49mph, and 14ft seas. It also still has a SST of nearly 84degF, essentially unchanged over the last 5 days, indicating the Gulf Stream has kept the surface water temps totally replenished with warm water from the south. In addition, the buoy just 40 miles SE of Savannah, Georgia is already reporting NNE winds of 28mph, and gusts to 34mph, along with 9 foot swells.

The reports from these buoy's confirm the aerial extent of higher winds has expanded, especially in the north through south quadrants of the storm, and that the higher winds speeds from aloft are starting to reach the surface. Ironically, I believe Ophelia is now a 'true' minimal Hurricane -- versus yesterday when it was clearly still a 'borderline' in terms of surface level wind speeds.

The ocean swells that are now reaching the Georgia and Carolina coast line are also going to produce strong and dangerous rip currents. Be advised.

The move to a more northerly position, versus the east bias the models have been forecasting for days has resulted in a lessening of shear above Ophelia, which caused significant weakening for the 12 hour period from around 6PM last night, till 6AM this. Indeed, reports overnight from the high level G-IV surveillance of the storm found southerly winds of over 30kts blowing across the top of the storm. The fact that this did not totally destroy Ophelia attests to the very well developed structure of the storm in the lower levels. While Ophelia is still only moving at 7mph, it is tracking directly over or near the Gulf Stream -- and as long as it does so, significant upwelling of cooler waters from below is really not an issue as the Gulf Stream replenishes the warm oceanic latent heat being removed from the surface water by the storm. The new 12Z model data has a clearly different 'look' to it, with a wide variation in model track forecast after 48hrs. Some of the models still call for the storm to move further away from the coast, but others are now calling for turn westward into the coastline somewhere along the coast from Georgia to the Carolinas. Until additional model data is available, the track and intensity of the storm will remain highly uncertain.

All interests along the southeast U.S. should maintain a close vigilance on the storm -- although for now, the threat to Florida still appears to be diminishing. The models effectively did not catch the slightly greater weakness in the ridge to the north...and this is allowing the storm to take a more northerly drift verses ENE. That said -- the global models continue to show a re-building of the ridge to the north of Ophelia by Sunday and Monday -- which will first slow the storm to a crawl -- and then turn it westward towards the coast early next week. WHERE it will end up is IMPOSSIBLE to predict - as I think I've said for 5 days now(?).

I'll have another update on the storm this afternoon for all Enhanced Service subscribers, with a full update this evening.

Steve Gregory / WeatherInsite 

Steve.Gregory@WeatherInsite.com

RSS Feeds:

http://www.nowpublic.com/user/1905/feed or http://rss.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/rss.xml

Forecasters: Storm could hit South Carolina early next week

(CNN) -- Ophelia regained hurricane
strength Friday evening, and the latest long-range forecast from the
National Hurricane Center shows the storm making landfall either late
Monday or early Tuesday along the South Carolina coast.

Video: FL Coast Feels Ophelia

Video: Ophelia Update

Video: Charleston, SC local forecast (Source)

Ophelia heading north of Florida

The season's most unpredictable hurricane appears headed for Georgia or South Carolina.

Ophelia could loop back

NEW SMYRNA BEACH, Florida (AP) -- Tropical
Storm Ophelia moved away from Florida's northeast coast Friday, but
that may not be the end of it for the peninsula, Georgia or the
Carolinas.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED
TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY... WHILE REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA STILL STATIONARY...SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Hurricane Ophelia taunts Carolinas

WILMINGTON, North Carolina (AP) --
Hurricane Ophelia sat nearly stationary off the coast of the Carolinas
on Sunday, taunting coastal residents made wary by the destruction that
Katrina caused along the Gulf Coast.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN
EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.