Russia in the Balance

Lots of bad things are going in the the (not so) former Soviet
Union. Some of these things have been going on for some time now: crony
“capitalism,” restriction of free speech, mysterious liquidations of
Russian dissidents, and so on. And things aren’t getting better in the
resource rich country; in fact new developments point to a cementing of
continued bad things from the Evil Empire.

The major new development is that Putin is developing a plan for a
constitutional workaround where he would become Prime Minister and
yield most of the power in his country because there would be a weak,
Putin picked the guy, president. I think Time puts it most succinctly:

Every democracy holds elections, but not every country
that holds elections is a true democracy. Case in point: Russia.
President Vladimir Putin announced on Oct. 1 that he would lead the
United Russia party in December’s parliamentary elections. The move is
designed to keep him in power although he is constitutionally barred
from seeking a third consecutive term as President. By leading his
party at the polls, he can become Prime Minister instead. He has
already all but ensured victory by blocking some opposition parties
from running and by using state-controlled TV to boost United Russia.
As Prime Minister, Putin would be less powerful than the next
President–unless that job goes to a political weakling. And there are
strong signs that Putin has found just the man in Viktor Zubkov, a
pliant apparatchik whom Putin appointed Prime Minister in September. If
he backs Zubkov for President, that would leave Putin with undiminished
control over Russia.

(A little aside, if you will indulge me, I think it is hilarious how
liberals in America fear President Bush doing something like this when
this is actually happening in Russia. Just had to say it.)

My go-to source for an actual Russian reaction to what is going on there is The Other Russia.
The operator of this site obviously sees Putin as the gravest threat to
political freedom in Russia and thinks that Russia is a threat to its
neighbors and international security as well. One of his most recent posts summarizes this move by Putin:

Independent news outlets around the world have reacted
strongly to president Vladimir Putin’s announcement on October 1st to
head the United Russia party in upcoming Parliamentary elections. The
move reveals Putin’s intention to retain his grip on power in the
Russian Federation.

Bolstered by the propagandistic state-run media (which, among other
things, decries Kremlin opponents as agents of the CIA) and sky-high
oil prices, Putin retains a near 70% approval rating. By leading United
Russia, Putin ensures that the loyal party will control at least two
thirds of the Federal Assembly, allowing unfettered access to
legislation and the majority necessary to change the Constitution.

Masha Lipman has another take on the situation:

With Vladimir Putin’s announcement this week that he
would head the pro-Kremlin United Russia party in December’s
parliamentary elections, Russia’s new power configuration began to take
shape. Ultimately, it will mean the extension of Putin’s authority and
a triumph of manipulative politics. But as they have demonstrated, the
Russian people won’t mind.

The dynamic Putin has created, ensuring himself nearly absolute
power, has one important flaw of his own making: Because his authority
is much greater than what is spelled out formally in the constitution,
and it his alone, there is no way for Putin to transfer his power
after, as the constitution requires, he steps down when his second term
ends. This is why Putin has to thoroughly control the transition — lest
Russia itself becomes unmanageable.

The stakes could not be higher: During his presidency Putin has
overseen a major redistribution of property. His primary goal is to
secure that redistribution and ensure security for himself. Putin, the
only real arbiter of the feuding groups among Russia’s elite, is also
the only possible safeguard against a new redistribution that would
threaten Russia’s stability.

Belying her ignorance as a Westerner I don’t think she truly
understands what it is like living in a quasi-totalitarian regime. She
says that “the Russian people won’t mind” Putin staying in power but,
really, how does she know this? Of course the polls show support for
Putin because the media greatly decides what people know about what is
going on and Putin controls their media. With his control of the media
he is able to aggrandize himself as much as possible. He uses the
media’s propaganda powers to add to and maintain as much personal power
as possible.

Furthermore, most people would rather with their current political
situation then try and change it. America’s Framers knew this when they
said in the Declaration of Independence “…all experience hath shewn
that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable
than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are
accustomed.” This is definitely the case in a country that has suffered
under the yoke of one dictator after another for centuries. When a
people knows nothing other then pain and misery why would anyone expect
them to want something better? But things are changing and will
continue to change as alternative media sources filter into that
country, I just hope it’s not too late to do anything to change their
present situation.

The other part of this piece from the Washington Post that i feel
misses the mark is the near-absent analysis of his moves. Like The
Other Russia presciently points out, “By leading United Russia, Putin
ensures that the loyal party will control at least two thirds of the
Federal Assembly, allowing unfettered access to legislation and the
majority necessary to change the Constitution.” This would ameliorate
any possible problems Putin would run into constitutionally speaking.



James F. Hoge Jr. at the International Herald Tribune has an opinion piece that explains where all of this could lead:

Russia’s strained relations with the West are about to
get worse. The cause is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mounting
frustration at being stymied in his drive to achieve “great power”
influence over events at a time when he thinks the United States is
weakened and Europe neutered.

Moscow-based Kremlin watchers expect more antagonistic
counterthrusts, spurred by Putin’s failure to get his way on three
current issues.

So far, Putin has unsuccessfully pressured the United States to give
up or modify its planned installation of 10 missile interceptors in
Poland and radar in the Czech Republic that are intended to offset
potential threats from Iran. His argument that the interceptors could
be reprogrammed to target Russia hasn’t carried weight since the
smallness of the program provides no significant obstacle to Russia’s
hefty nuclear weapons capabilities. And his threat to target European
cities with Russian missiles is hollow symbolism. If this manufactured
security threat were to lead to Russian investments in countermeasures,
the costs, initially low, could spiral out of control.

Putin’s resistance to Kosovo independence without Serbian
acquiescence is delaying but not yet changing Western intentions to
sever the Balkan province, with its dominant Albanian population, from
Serbia. Here, too, Putin has raised veiled threats that Kosovo
independence could be followed by Russian instigation of breakaway
forces in unstable Fast European and Caucasian countries.

Lastly, Putin has stiffened objections to further expansion of NATO
to include more countries abutting Russia. Rather than stressing the
common security concerns of NATO and Russia, Putin accuses a “fearful”
West of seeking to deny a strengthening Russia an “independent” foreign
policy….

Putin’s antagonism abroad, based on spurious charges that the West
exploited Russian weakness in the 1990s, is reinforced at home by
rampant anti-Americanism in the country’s controlled media and even in
newly issued schoolbooks.

Public opinion surveys show his bellicosity against the West to be
popular with the Russian populace. That strengthens his hand in
arranging outcomes to his liking in upcoming parliamentary and
presidential elections.

Putin is a communist and losing to, in his view, the enemy that is
America must have made him very angry. Now he wants to get even. And
like how I was saying earlier that Westerners always misjudge Russian
political maneuvering the same is true (probably more so) for our
Russian counterparts. This is not a time to acquiesce to any Russian
demands because they are not in a position of strength and they are not
representing any type of positive progress.

As Russia comes more under the power of Putin things will start
turning sour economically for the country. This is where major problems
can pop up. Putin’s Russia has planted its flag on the Ocean floor in
Santa’s backyard making its claim to the vast wealth that is buried
under the Arctic’s seabed. If we decided to sign on to the Law of the
Sea Treaty this could cause international problems with us and Russia
because they could plausibly say that we are violating Russia’s land if
we try to mine anything in “their” claimed area. By banging the drums
of war with the West he is positioning public sentiment in his country
towards viewing Western nations as the reason for their financial
troubles and creating an atmosphere that would be amenable to war for
the good of “Mother Russia.”

America does not need to tread lightly with this one-time foe. In
order for us to avert a possibly nuclear showdown with this old foe we
need to take the opposite tact with them. We need to not sign the Sea
Treaty, we mustn’t give them any more power in international
institutions like the UN or NATO, and we should publicly call for the
advancement of political freedom in Russia. If we don’t have a Radio
Free Russia we should get one and if we do have one we should expand
it.

By going to war, so to say, with Russia in these ways will put
political pressure on the Kremlin and probably would avert a war with
Russia and might force the country to embrace a greater amount of
democratization. This may be analogous to a game of chicken but in this
one we have a Hummer and they are driving, well, this:

BigT