Thompson’s Last Stand in South Carolina

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Thompson’s Last Stand in South Carolina

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In a little bit over a week’s time, January 19 to be exact, we will know whether or not Senator Thompson will stay in the race.

“This is where we make our stand — this is where I have
chosen to make my stand,” Thompson told a crowd at a barbecue
restaurant. He later told reporters he needs to do well in South Carolina, which votes Jan. 19.

“There’s no question about it. It could prove at the end of the day
that South Carolina is determinative as far as I’m concerned, but we’re
not there yet,” he said.

Thompson said he didn’t expect to win New Hampshire, but went there to participate in two weekend debates.

“It’s been about getting to South Carolina the whole time. South
Carolina is the gateway to the rest of the country,” Thompson told Fox
News Channel in an interview Tuesday night. “These elections are not
decided in two or three locations. They’re decided in the rest of the
country in the South and the West, and the rest of the Midwest gets to
participate, too.

“It’s been all about getting here and this has got to be considered
my firewall,” he continued. “I’ve got to do very well here if not win
here. And, you know, there’s no question about that. And I will stake
my ground in South Carolina.”

Will South Carolina be Thompson’s Alamo or Gettysburg? Based on the
polls it looks like he will not win in South Carolina but, based on the
pollster’s snafu last night in New Hampshire, there is no way you can count him out.

Senator Thompson had a lead in South Carolina as recently as October
and can make a final push if some things fall into place over the next
ten days. The biggest thing that needs to fall is Huckabee’s campaign.

Governor Huckabee needs to fall from the race as quickly as he
vaulted to the top for Thompson to have a real chance at victory
because, based on the polls right now, Huckabee is kicking butt in South Carolina.
Many things tell me that Huckabee is nothing more than a shooting star,
a red herring in this race and for Thompson to still have a chance the
voters must quickly realize this as well.

For example, Huckabee got his butt handed to him in New Hampshire. He came in a distant third there with only 11% of the vote. The next state, Michigan, is a close race between Romney and Huckabee.
Working against Huckabee is the fact that Romney grew up there and was
a governor close by. If Huckabee loses there I doubt he will get out of
the race but maybe his voters could be persuaded against voting for
someone who is a flash in the pan.

Who would his voters go to in the event he loses support as quickly
as he got it? Well, there’s no way to be sure. We can look at polls but
they seem unable to come even close to getting the answer right in some
cases. But this is exactly what Thompson needs in order to win; a major
realignment of voters.

I’m not sure it’s likely going to happen, but it is definitely
possible. It is still early in the race and people should still be
voting for whom they really want to win. Senator Thompson is the only
clear classically liberal (conservative in today’s lingo) option in the
republican field. Hopefully voters will come out of their Huckabee
trance and realize that he is nowhere near what any of us would call a
conservative. If Thompson is able to pry half of Huckabee’s support
away from him then he would win the South Carolina primary.

This all does seem like a big-time long shot for the Senator.
Everything has to heavily tilt his way in order for him to win. Can it
happen? Yes, I still believe he has a shot at winning in South
Carolina. If he wins in South Carolina he will be competitive the rest
of the way. But if he loses in South Carolina we will be losing our
chance at having a real conservative as President. None of us want that
and this is why I urge you not to lose hope and to keep up the good
fight for our cause. BigT