NP Rank:
The UN Climate Change Numbers Hoax
The UN Climate Change Numbers Hoax
By Tom Harris: John McLean Friday, December 14, 2007
Al Gore, Climate ChangeIt’s an assertion repeated by politicians and climate campaigners the world over – ‘2,500 scientists of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agree that humans are causing a climate crisis’.
But it’s not true. And, for the first time ever, the public can now see the extent to which they have been misled. As lies go, it’s a whopper. Here’s the real situation.
Like the three IPCC ‘assessment reports’ before it, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) released during 2007 (upon which the UN climate conference in Bali was based) includes the reports of the IPCC’s three working groups. Working Group I (WG I) is assigned to report on the extent and possible causes of past climate change as well as future ‘projections’. Its report is titled “The Physical Science Basis”. The reports from working groups II and II are titled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” and “Mitigation of Climate Change” respectively, and since these are based on the results of WG I, it is crucially important that the WG I report stands up to close scrutiny.
There is, of course serious debate among scientists about the actual technical content of the roughly 1,000-page WG I report, especially its politically motivated Summary for Policymakers which is often the only part read by politicians and non-scientists. The technical content can be difficult for non-scientists to follow and so most people simply assume that if that large numbers of scientists agree, they must be right.
Consensus never proves the truth of a scientific claim, but is somehow widely believed to do so for the IPCC reports, so we need to ask how many scientists really did agree with the most important IPCC conclusion, namely that humans are causing significant climate change–in other words the key parts of WG I?
The numbers of scientist reviewers involved in WG I is actually less than a quarter of the whole, a little over 600 in total. The other 1,900 reviewers assessed the other working group reports. They had nothing to say about the causes of climate change or its future trajectory. Still, 600 “scientific expert reviewers” sounds pretty impressive. After all, they submitted their comments to the IPCC editors who assure us that “all substantive government and expert review comments received appropriate consideration.” And since these experts reviewers are all listed in Annex III of the report, they must have endorsed it, right?
Wrong.
For the first time ever, the UN has released on the Web
the comments of reviewers who assessed the drafts of the WG I report
and the IPCC editors’ responses. This release was almost certainly a
result of intense pressure applied by “hockey-stick” co-debunker Steve
McIntyre of Toronto and his allies. Unlike the other IPCC working
groups, WG I is based in the U.S. and McIntyre had used the robust
Freedom of Information legislation to request certain details when the
full comments were released.
An examination of reviewers’ comments on the last draft of the WG I
report before final report assembly (i.e. the ‘Second Order Revision’
or SOR) completely debunks the illusion of hundreds of experts
diligently poring over all the chapters of the report and providing
extensive feedback to the editing teams. Here’s the reality.
John McLean is climate data analyst based in Melbourne, Australia.
Tom Harris is the Ottawa-based Executive Director of the Natural
Resources Stewardship Project


Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (21)
at 11:55 on December 16th, 2007
Dave
Follow the continue reading link
at 11:59 on December 16th, 2007
Ok. I am currently going through the second order revision of "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change" (i.e. all 1157 comments). Approximately 55% of them were rejected, of which around 90% belonged to one individual: Vincent Gray. Thusly, the following phrase from the article, "Of the comments received from the 62 reviewers of this critical chapter, almost 60% of them were rejected by IPCC editors." is HIGHLY misleading.
Furthermore, the original authors make claims such as, "And of the 62 expert reviewers of this chapter, 55 had serious vested
interest, leaving only seven expert reviewers who appear impartial." without ANY corroborating evidence - this borderlines slander.
at 12:25 on December 16th, 2007
Dave
I encourage everyone to read the report and post your feelings on the subject. The more comments the better. Are the scientists right. Is Gore right or is it somewhere in the middle. How do scientists stack up?
‘Over 100 Prominent Scientists Challenge UN Move For Global Carbon
Tax’; ‘The UN has officially announced what the fearmongering about
man-made global warming has been designed to justify all along - a
global carbon tax which will do nothing to reduce carbon emissions but
everything to feed the trough of world government. Over one hundred
prominent scientists signed a letter dismissing the move as a futile
beauracratic scheme which will diminish prosperity and increase human
suffering.
at 13:31 on December 16th, 2007
Good stuff. even with ScienceDave's objections. Do some research, people! Don't just swallow the convenient sound-bites!
at 15:05 on December 16th, 2007
Some 'Convenient Facts' and more: Disinformation Dangerous & Deadly
at 05:41 on December 17th, 2007
AtomCat, if you join the discussion on ScienceDave's thread,you'll see that he has offered to remove the flag if you file this under Opinions.
As I said in that discussion, I think that would be a win-win for all of us.
at 06:40 on December 17th, 2007
There are 2 sides to this argument. Al Gore made it political by calling those who disagree with him "deniers." Both sides are still in debate. Al Gore reminds me of my Sundays back in the day when I would have to listen to someone scare me half to death in the name of God. Gore does it in the name of Mother Earth. And he is getting richer with each $6 thousand dollar a minute speech. I do not think there should be a wrench on this story. It seems like a political act.
at 06:42 on December 17th, 2007
atomcat, Good stuff.
at 08:47 on December 17th, 2007
It seems to me that Dave has taken it upon himself to be a censor not an editor. If that's okay with NP, who am I to argue. I spent time in Calgary as a reporter and I'm getting ready to launch a magazine. News has been one sided for too long, with any dissenting voice being quashed. The whole basis of my magazine is to present both sides and let the readers decide.
If I'm wrong the magazine will fail, but then I still have faith that people can think for themselves given the opportunity.
Pope Benedict XVI has launched a surprise attack on climate change
prophets of doom, warning them that any solutions to global warming
must be based on firm evidence and not on dubious ideology.The leader
of more than a billion Roman Catholics suggested that fears over
man-made emissions melting the ice caps and causing a wave of
unprecedented disasters were nothing more than scare-mongering.
continue reading
Dave, is the Pope a
heretic?
at 08:54 on December 17th, 2007
Given much of the original article you are highlighting is of pure opinion, this article belongs under the "Opinions" category - if you change this, I will be happy to remove the flag.
at 09:00 on December 17th, 2007
Even though this story was wrenched, maybe because of it even, this story has received a lot of traffic. And I'm glad. Global warming skepticism is a tough stance to take because so many outlets (governments, businesses, the media) have taken the position that it is real and that we're causing it. It's absolutely necessary to get the other side of the argument out so it can at least temper any response we make to global warming.
Oh, by the way atomcat, the Pope is the alpha-heretic to most people; especially global warming boosters.
at 09:15 on December 17th, 2007
Dave
We just had a hell of a snow storm here, the roads were closed, power outages, vehicles in the ditch.
We just had a wonderful snowfall, the ski hills are open and they are starting to groom the snowmobile trails.
Which one is news, which is opinion, are they both. Is it up to you to make the call? Maybe you like winter maybe you don't. Same storm, different views.
I feel I must pass on your offer, I'll let you decide.
at 10:23 on December 17th, 2007
this is clearly an opinion piece and should be tagged as such. please make this change and I'll ensure that the flag is removed.
the issue here is not the facts of the matter but the way they are presented. this is not simply a report about a scientific theory but someone's opinion as to the significance of that theory.
at 10:47 on December 17th, 2007
I was asked once before to move a piece I had written to opinion which I did. This is different. Dave just up and flaged it. As an editor he didn't say, hey I read your post and maybe it would be better under another heading. Not Dave. He makes no bones about the fact he disagrees with the content of the post and that is why he flaged it. That is not good editing unless maybe you work for CNN or Fox news. An apology from Dave and I move the story. I think I have support on that request from the comments I have read from the other editors. From dave needs improvement:
atomcat,
I think your story has potential but needs some improvement. I've got a
few suggestions, and if you give them a try, I'd be happy to remove
this flag.
An examination of reviewers’ comments on the last draft of the WG
I report before final report assembly (i.e. the ‘Second Order Revision’
or SOR) completely debunks the illusion of hundreds of experts
diligently poring over all the chapters of the report and providing
extensive feedback to the editing teams. Here’s the reality.
This claim is incredibly strong, and we have no reason to believe
its credibility. As such, please provide sufficient evidence for your
claim, and I will be happy to remove this flag.
at 11:22 on December 17th, 2007
ScienceDave referred this matter to me. Perhaps the original flag should have been clearer in its instruction. There is consensus amongst the editorial staff that this should be in Opinion. Please make the change and the flag will be removed. This does not have to do with bias but rather transparency and accuracy.
at 13:04 on December 17th, 2007
I've removed the flag - but for the sake of transparency here is ScienceDave's original comment:needs improvement:
atomcat,
I think your story has potential but needs some improvement. I've got a
few suggestions, and if you give them a try, I'd be happy to remove
this flag.
An examination of reviewers’ comments on the last draft of the WG
I report before final report assembly (i.e. the ‘Second Order Revision’
or SOR) completely debunks the illusion of hundreds of experts
diligently poring over all the chapters of the report and providing
extensive feedback to the editing teams. Here’s the reality.
This claim is incredibly strong, and we have no reason to believe
its credibility. As such, please provide sufficient evidence for your
claim, and I will be happy to remove this flag.
at 14:09 on December 17th, 2007
AtomCat, I truly feel that Dave and the rest of the editorial team have been transparent, and very fair. Please file this under Opinions. Pieces get flagged; that's part of the process.
I don't believe Dave needs to apologize. He's changed his headline, changed where his piece is filed, and has asked you only to refile under Opinions. As Ryan Nadel notes, the editorial team has a consensus that this needs to be filed under Opinions. Why would you want to ignore the whole team?
Right now we have a win-win situation. If you're making this into a personal thing about Dave, I'll ask you to step back and reconsider that. And to suddenly say that other editors have problems with Dave (I wouldn't count on that, actually because to my knowledge that is not true) because we're having open, transparent dialogue not only goes outside the topic, but it violates our "no flaming" policy.
Dialogue yes, personal attacks no.
Ryan Nadel is now managing this issue, and he has my full support. But if I were managing it, despite my earlier care to make sure that your viewpoint was heard, I'd wrench it again and ask that it be filed under Opinions and the personal attack be deleted.
Stick with win-win, OK?
at 14:18 on December 17th, 2007
I did file it under opinions and Ryan pulled the flag. Thank you Ryan
Problem, it
disappeared. I just reposted it, still under opinions and now it's in political. I will do again.
at 14:20 on December 17th, 2007
Pep I just hit edit. It says the story is filed under opinions. When it reloads it shows poitics.
at 15:41 on December 17th, 2007
Hi AtomCat, thanks for working with us.
It sounds like you've hit one of our tagging snags, which happens every so often. Suggestion: in the pull-down menu, select Opinions. In your tags, add opinions, and for right now, try deleting politics from the tags.
See if that works. If it does, wait a little bit, give the system a chance to electro-chill out (heh heh) and later edit again and add tag politics and see what happens. :)
at 15:41 on December 17th, 2007
Hi atomcat,
The story has been changed to Opinions (look at the URl) but sometimes when a story is tagged both as politics and opinion it is displayed as being in politics rather than opinion. This is a known bug and our developers are aware of it.