What it means to be Musharraf now?

On 6 October 2007 and after a ruling by Pakistani Supreme Court allowed polls to take place but restrained the official announcement of the results until it dealt with challenges to the candidacy of President Pervez Musharraf, indirect elections were held in Pakistan. Then, we heard much on its unsurprising results: President Pervez Musharraf had won a pyrrhic electoral victory.  <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Musharraf came to power in October 1999, after a bloodless coup, which was his quick response to an attempt by then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to oust him as head of the Pakistani army. Then, Musharraf won an election in 2002, which legitimated his first five-year term. However, many of his opponents questioned the results of that election. Now, 64-year-old Musharraf has won 252 of the 254 votes made by the 442-member National Assembly and Senate.  Technically, Musharraf has been elected for another 5-year-term. However, his electoral victory raised questions over its gains and costs. Just like Pyrrhus, the king of <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279BC but lost many of his own men, Musharraf has had to make many costly decisions to win his rather unstable position. Let us take a deeper look into this matter. In April 2007, Pervez Musharraf had to endure the consequences of removing Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the Chief Justice of Pakistan's Supreme Court. Such unduly calculated decision, allowed the opposition to concentrate on a single tenet against the government. It also caused enormous international pressure on the Musharraf Presidency and its policy towards the opposition.  on July 20 2007, the judicial reinstatement of the Chief Justice caused shame and mistrust on Musharraf and his intention to remain in power.  Then, the Army and intelligence agencies clearly showed signals of maverick calculations in dealing with the Taliban and the insurgency in North Waziristan. After the Red Mosque incident, some analysts even envisioned Pakistan was near a civil war. The military could have been plotting against Musharraf. In addition, Pakistan had to endure mounting international pressure by its international partners in the war on terror.   Nevertheless, the Great Game in Eurasia never ends. The UK and USA were reported as favouring a scheme where Musharraf would remain as President of Pakistan but stripped off his military uniform; self-exiled and PPP leader, Benazir Bhutto, or one of her allies would become Prime Minister. A “national reconciliation” ticket was then promoted. Nevertheless, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) opposition -led ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif- had very little participation in this “democratisation formula”.  On 2 October 2007, Ashfaq Kiyani, a former intelligence chief was appointed to wear the uniform of Musharraf as head of the army. After a last minute deal before elections took place, Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto made final arrangements for the future government. Bhutto certainly won a blue in political scheming. She would be able to return to Pakistan without fear of facing corruption charges. Furthermore, her some times political ally, Ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was formally ousted from the general elections game next year. His much-publicised return to Pakistan on September 10, ended in a very short visit and a ticket to Saudi Arabia.   Next week, the Supreme Court hearing will resume but a decision on Musharraf candidature may take several weeks. Moreover, it has already refused to suspend a corruption amnesty for Benazir Bhutto and stated the law was reversible. As a result, President Musharraf is currently trying to prevent Benazir Bhutto from returning to Pakistan but on security ground. Timing does not seem right for him. His ally party PML (Q) is splitting up and Benazir's PPP lower cadre is in revolt. In addition, international pressure on his country is also mounting as European and U.S. anti-terrorism officials say Al Qaeda regains strength in the badlands of the Pakistani-Afghan border.  

oNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt">President Musharraf will have to use his most acute political senses to determine his chances to remain in power. The Pakistani Supreme Court, the Military, Benazir's PPP and Nawas cadre will all try to deteriorate his current power position. Moreover, international war on terror is demanding more Pakistani muscle. Declaring an emergency is a rather suicidal move for him. It is certainly not easy to be Musharraf now. 

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