Paths To War - The Bush Administration's Casus Belli

President Bush's press conference gives new support to those that see a war with Iran brewing in the White House's strategy of an Iraqi "surge." Despite an impending fight with Congressional Democrats over the viability of the Surge itself, the Administration's focus has shifted from Iraq to Iran. More than just the conspiracy theorists now see Bush's surge as a build-up for an Iranian war. For many, the conclusion is already inescapable.

"The Surge" will send 21,000 additional troops to Iraq including thousands of Marines. Two carriers battle groups now patrol the Persian Gulf with a rumored third possibly en-route to the claustrophobic sea-lane. These additional troops as well as significant air and sea power provide the means for the Bush Administration to conduct a small-scale war with Iran. Though the consequences of a open conflict with Iran could be militarily catastrophic, the greatest present obstacle to war is the reluctance of the American people. Bush's Iraq misadventure and the ongoing security nightmare in Baghdad have all but destroyed domestic support for an attack on Iran; but the Bush administration still has a few tricks up its sleeve which may keep the door open for a third Middle Eastern front.