Clinton Wins Michigan, Uncommitted Takes Second! Politisite Political Predictions for the GOP

Michigan delegate update

As we've noted, Florida has been stripped of its delegates due its
early primary. Michigan's situation, however, is a little more
complicated:

As Iowa voters gear up for Thursday’s caucuses, Michigan Democrats
have just a few days to change their scheduled Jan. 15 presidential
primary or lose all their delegates to the Democratic National
Convention in August. The conflict began when Michigan’s legislature
set the Jan. 15 primary so voters could exercise greater influence over
the selection of the party nominees for the 2008 presidential race, but
Michigan Democrats appear likely to end up with no delegates at all and
thus little clout at the national party convention in Denver.

The rule-making division of the Democratic National Committee (DNC)
recommended on Dec. 1 that the party strip the Michigan Democratic
Party of its 156 delegates because of the state’s non-compliance with
national party rules. The DNC set Feb. 5 as the earliest date states
can schedule their nominating contests [outside of Iowa, New Hampshire,
South Carolina and Nevada.

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican John McCain holds a slim lead on
rival Mitt Romney in Michigan one day before the state's hotly
contested presidential nominating contest, according to a
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.

McCain, an Arizona senator who won the New Hampshire primary last
week, narrowly leads Romney 27 percent to 24 percent among likely
Republican voters in Michigan, within the poll's margin of error of 3.3
percentage points.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who was raised in Michigan,
is hunting for a breakthrough win in the state on Tuesday to keep his
White House hopes alive after second-place finishes in Iowa and New
Hampshire.

"It's very close, and it has been close every day that we have
polled," said pollster John Zogby. The rolling survey of 915 likely
Republican primary voters was taken Friday through Sunday.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa's kick-off contest,
was third at 15 percent in Michigan. He was followed by Texas Rep. Ron
Paul at 8 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent and
former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 5 percent.

Romney Takes 2% Lead Over McCain

Huckabee Distant Third

Romney 29%, McCain 27%, Huckabee 12%

LANSING, Mich. — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has taken a
2% lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain according to results of a tracking
poll conducted Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Romney leads with 29% to
McCain’s 27% with Mike Huckabee at 12%. Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are
getting 7%, Fred Thompson 4%, and Duncan Hunter 2%, among likely voters
in the Michigan Republican Presidential Primary Election. Six percent
say they will vote “uncommitted” while 5% are undecided.

The telephone tracking poll is being conducted by Mitchell
Interactive. Mitchell Interactive is an East Lansing, Michigan and
Washington, DC based national political polling and market research
company. The survey of 582 likely Republican Presidential Primary
voters was conducted January 10, 12 and 13, 2008. The survey has a
margin of error of +-4.1% at the 95% level of confidence.

“As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to
Mitt Romney than to John McCain. We have also seen the participation
among Republicans increase from 62% last night to 75% at the end of
phoning tonight. That means that 75% of the voters taking part in the
GOP Primary identify themselves as Republicans,” Steve Mitchell,
president of Mitchell Interactive said.