Truemors
Florida - Politisite Political Projections: Statistical conclusions and a gut check
Jan 28, 2008 21:00 EST, Jan 29, 2008 02:00 UTC (GMT)
(Columbia) -(IMNS)- Florida-Politisite Political Projections for our NowPublic readers. Florida is an interesting animal. It does not really qualify as a southern state, has a large retirement population which are mostly northeastern liberals and moderate Republicans. Snow Birds, you think, maintain their residence in the north. Not true as Florida has some nice perks. There is No state sales tax and Flordia has tax laws that keep a home judgement proof. Most northerners stay for six months and one day to maintain residence there. For all practical purposes, except for the weather, Florida is a part of New England. But wait! Northwest Florida, the panhandle, is conservative to moderate due to larger Christian communities, Conservative colleges, and military in Pensacola, Ft Walton Beach, Marianna, and Tallahassee.
I will look at Florida as I did with South Carolina using trending.
Trends: One or two data points doesn’t make a trend. The trend is your Friend and should always be used in analysis of possible outcomes. Had pollsters considered trending in New Hampshire, they probably would have had the numbers correctly. The problem is that they use data that is a day or two old and they give percentages based on the numbers. Trend lines are not used. Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the candidate is moving. You can also use these graphs to gauge where a candidate will be on election day. When I invest in the stock market trend lines are part of what I use. I like momentum. It is very difficult to stop a rolling train. When things are in motion, they will continue to stay in motion unless there is proper resistance. This can be immediate resistance which takes more power (a Major News Story) or gradient resistance which causes things to stop, like a rolling ball.
John McCain: candidate is trending upward from January 7th at 19% points, High Flag since Win in South Carolina to Jan 27 of 31% We expect candidate to remain trending upward to 34% On election day with a margin of error of 3% points.
Mitt Romney: Trending upward from January 7th at 18% points. High Point January 26th at 33%. Expect to trend down 1-3% by election day to 31%
Rudy Giuliani: Trending downward from high of 20% on January 23rd. Trend will continue to 16%
Mike Huckabee: Head and Shoulders Top on Jan 23rd. Trending upward 14%
Ron Paul: Tend up to 6%
Conclusion:
McCain 34%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 16%, Huckabee 14%, Paul 6%
That was my statistical conclusion. Here is what my gut is telling me. I think there is a large section of voters being under polled. Many folks are transient residents and are not listed in directories or those who support candiates that live in the south have northern checking accounts and are not being polled. I think Giuliani and Romney will do better than the polls say.
My gut tells me to throw out the statisics and say this: Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul
Margin of Error is +/- A New York Strip Steak, a Slice of Boston Cream Pie, and a glass of orange Juice
Here is what others are saying:
Election 2008addImpression("ZOGBY_POLL");
McCain takes narrow lead in Florida 1:00am ET
John McCain has a three point lead over Mitt Romney ahead of the Jan. 29 Florida Republican primary according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll. Former national Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani has regained a distant third place over Mike Huckabee. Full Article
Go to Zogby.com for more on the polls
For most of the past week, John McCain was slightly behind Mitt Romney in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. Then, on Saturday, the Arizona Senator switched the subject of the campaign to his comfort zone--national security issues. Saturday night, the Arizona Senator got another bit of good news—an endorsement by popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist.
Polling on Sunday showed that McCain picked up four percentage points from the day before. Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani lost two points each and Mike Huckabee also slipped a point. As a result, it’s all tied heading into the final full day of campaigning before Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain and Romney tied at 31%, Giuliani is a distant third at 16% and Huckabee is in fourth place at 11%. The number of persuadable voters is also dwindling. Only 2% are undecided and just 6% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) of McCain’s voters have already voted or are certain they will vote for him. That number is identical for Romney voters. Just 5% of McCain voters and 7% of Romney voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
The election may be decided by the number of Giuliani and Huckabee supporters who decide to abandon their first choice in hopes of influencing the outcome. Many may have already done so. On Saturday, 15% of Giuliani supporters said there was a good chance they could change their mind. Just 7% of the remaining Giuliani voters said the same on Sunday.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of Florida’s Republican Primary Voters say that it’s more important to select a President who can handle national security issues than one who can handle economic issues. Thirty-five percent (35%) take the opposite view.
Voters have this preference for national security credentials despite the fact that 43% name the economy as the top voting issue. Just 28% name either the War in Iraq or national security as the top issue. One reason may be that Republican voters in Florida generally believe that the best thing the government can do to help the economy is to get out of the way. In terms of stimulating the economy, 47% say cutting government spending is the best policy. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say cutting taxes is most important.
It is hard to overstate the impact of Florida’s Republican Primary. While it is highly likely that both McCain and Romney will continue regardless of the outcome, a win for McCain would make him the heavy favorite for the nomination. He already leads or is tied for the lead in several Super Tuesday states including in California, New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Alabama.
On the other hand, a victory for Romney could give Romney a bounce for Super Tuesday and set the stage for a long, drawn-out competition.
Nationally, in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, McCain and Romney have begun to pull away from the rest of the field. The economy is seen as the top voting issue for all voters nationwide.
Rasmussen Markets data suggests that McCain has a 50.1
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% chance of winning in Florida while Romney is given a 48.6
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% chance.. According to the markets, Giuliani is a distant third with a 3.9
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% chance of victory. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Prospects for California and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page.
Among Florida Democrats, Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead.
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