Politisite Political Predictions for the Iowa Caucus Tonight Jan 3rd, 2008.

Politisite Political Predictions for the Iowa Caucus Tonight Jan 3rd, 2008.

The Iowa Caucus is the most difficult of all of the states to predict.  Since a candidate must have 15% of the vote to qualify, last minute changes occur.  If Dodd or Biden get 10% of the folks they will have to caucus with their second choice. The second choice is often encouraged by the candidate they supported as their first choice.

Iowa is about being in front of the people.  The folks want to get a few things as well.  Some folks are getting their driveways shoveled and their children watched for the evening in turn for a vote.  

Money is a big part of The Iowa Caucuses.  Governor Romney has spent more than 6 million dollars there.  Which candidate has the best food? Gives the best gifts?  Who gives rides to the Caucus center?   Who will watch your children? Sound like buying an election?  In part it is,  this is Iowa and it is the launching pad for candidates to go to the next state and continue to campaign for the nomination or its time to go home. 

Here are my predictions for the Iowa Caucus:

 Republican Party:

1. Gov. Mike Huckabee,  2. Sen. John McCain, 3. Gov. Mitt Romney, 4. Sen. Fred Thompson 

Duncan Hunter will drop out following Iowa.   Ron Paul will get 5 to 11% But will Continue to campaign.  Giuliani Gets 7 % and his folks go to McCain

Democratic Party

1. Sen John Edwards, 2. Barak Obama, 3. Hillary Clinton, 4. Gov. Richardson

Sen. Dodd will drop out. Sen Biden will Go to NH.

Real Clear Politics 

Republican

1. Huckabee , 2. McCain , 3.Thompson 

 Democrat

1. Obama, 2. Clinton, 3. Edwards, 4.Richardson

Evans-Novak Political Report

Republican 

1st Place: Mitt Romney, 2nd Place: Mike Huckabee, 3rd Place: Fred Thompson, 4th Place: John McCain

Democrat

1st Place: Barack Obama, 2nd Place: John Edwards, 3rd Place: Hillary Clinton, 4th Place: Bill Richardson
 

So in the end will it be Politisite.com , Realclearpolitics.com, or Evans & Novak?

I will report the results Late tonight since it is now Jan 3.

This election will be over in the USA the night of Feb 5th.  

Next elections in January are

WY Jan 5th 

NH Jan 8th

MI Jan 15th

SC GOP, NV Jan 19th 

SC Dem's Jan 26th

FL Jan 29 

Politisite will be Credentialed Media for the following presidential debates

Jan 10th Myrtle Beach, SC Fox News Republican Debate with Brit Hume

Jan 16th NPR / ETV Debate Columbia, SC

Jan 21st Congressional Black Caucus / CNN Democratic Debate  Myrtle Beach, SC 

Jan 24th Floria Atlantic University / MSNBC Debate

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Posted at 12:08 PM ET, 01/ 3/2008
Iowa Caucuses -- Prediction Time!

After all of the waiting and anticipating, Iowa caucus day is here!

The Fix will be writing a constantly updating news story throughout the late afternoon and evening on washingtonpost.com, which we will be cross-publishing in this space. (The stories will start being published here and on the main site at around 5 p.m. ET.)

In the meantime, what would an Election Day be without predictions? The Fix sampled a selection of unaffiliated political operatives to gather their predictions about the first-, second- and third-place finishers for both Democrats and Republicans. The experts were also asked to predict what THE storyline coming out of Iowa will be.

Most were brave enough to put their names to their predictions. Some were not. (Boo!). A sampling of their answers is provided below. The consensus was that Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucuses and Mitt Romney will emerge on the Republican side. The storyline of choice among these political pros is a stronger-than-expected third-place finish by John McCain that propels him to a win in New Hampshire's GOP primary next Tuesday.

 
From http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

 Iowa Caucus predictions?  I want to hear from you!