Shifting Sands: U.S. Winning Iraq War

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Shifting Sands: U.S. Iraq Deaths Lowest in 14 Months

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The U.S. led military surge operations appear to be working. That is the indication from recently release data from the U.S. department of defense that shows U.S. combat deaths in sharp decline, dropping to the lowest level in 14 months. 70 troops died in combat in Iraq during the month of September, the lowest number since July of last year. The data also shows September as the fourth consecutive month of loss reductions.

While the Iraqi civilian death toll remains much higher that troop losses at 1249 for September, the figures are still only half of the number that was occurring before the surge operations began. In January of 2007 Baghdad was averaging 38 civilian deaths per day by shootings and 27 per day by bombings, in September that number was down to 11 per day by shooting and 4.2 per day by bombing. Outside of Baghdad, civilian deaths spiked to nearly 23 deaths per day by shooting in April but have been reduced and held steady at 11 deaths per day for the last three months. The only reverse in trend that has occurred since the onset of surge operations was has been the civilian death toll by bombings outside of Baghdad, spiking from an average of 15 per day last February to 23 per day in August. Analysts attribute this rise to tighter security measures in Baghdad preventing the transport of bomb making materials; forcing terrorists to retreat further out to unleash their carnage.

 U.S. commanders on the ground have indicated that with increased security in Baghdad will come more offensive operations outside of Baghdad aimed at crushing both Al Qaeda and the Iraqi national resistance's ability to wage war. In August a multinational force consisting of 14,000 Iraqi army and 12,000 U.S. military personnel launched what was dubbed as Operation Lightning Hammer in Iraq's Diyala province. Operation Lightning Hammer II was launched in September using the same number of troops in Ninewa province. U.S. officials point to these types of operations as accountable for the near 40% drop in violence since last June.

While Operation Iraqi Freedom seems far from over, it does seem that the tide of the war has taken a drastic swing over the past six months. In Washington, the political dynamics of the war seemed to have changed as well. During last Tuesday's Democratic presidential debates, the crowded field of presidential hopefuls whom were, only a few months before, all calling for immediate troop withdrawals now seem to be significantly shifting positions to reflect conditions on the ground. Only two of the prospective candidates, former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richards, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, called for immediate drawdowns. Frontrunners, Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama, and former Sen. John Edwards shocked audiences when all three failed to affirm that U.S. troops would be out of Iraq even by the end of their first presidential terms.

While the extremist anti-war left continues its steady, radical drumbeat of peace at any cost, the MoveOn.org "General betray us." attack ad in the New York Times seems to have backfired in a fury with congress overwhelmingly passing a condemnation of the ad last week. It seems that after a three year winter of the U.S.'s discontent in Iraq, the administration may have finally found the right man in Petraeus, and as the proverbial snow melts, the ground hog may indeed not see his shadow, meaning spring is just around the corner.