Super Tuesday: Don't Negate Huckabee
Don't Negate the Huckster
See Also Ryan Nadel on Polls: Super Tuesday Race Tight
By Albert . Milliron
Mike Huckabee was given very little time in the California Debate even though the Real Clear Politics national average puts him within 1.5% points of Governor Mitt Romney 20.3% at 18.8%. I took a quick look at several sites that provide polling data for Super Tuesday Feb. 5th. Huckabee Wins several states straight up and within striking distance in many others. With Mitt Romney falling in many polls, Mike Huckabee could rack up enough delegates to make a difference in the race. Since Mike and John are exchanging pleasantries of late, I see Huckabee having a much greater roll in the Future of John McCain's presidential aspirations. Many conservatives don't care for the sometimes liberal McCain and Huckabee could be the answer to pull in the conservative vote in November. I would look for Mike Huckabee to continue to the convention (which we are covering on site) and pass his delegates to McCain for a position as vice or somewhere in the cabinet. Don't think so? Watch the Huck on Tuesday and see.
2008 Alabama Republican Presidential Primary - Huckabee Wins - 27.4% - 48 Delegates
(see also 2008 Alabama Democratic Presidential Primary)
2008 Arkansas Republican Presidential Primary - Huckabee Wins - 49.5% - 34 Delegates
(see also 2008 Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary)
2008 Georgia Republican Presidential Primary - Huckabee Wins - 28.4% - 72 Delegates
(see also 2008 Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary)
Huckabee Wins Missouri 27% - 58 Delegates
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows Mike Huckabee and John McCain essentially tied for the lead among the Show-Me State’s Likely Republican Primary Voters. Huckabee attracts 27% of the vote while McCain earns 26%.
Mitt Romney is in third place with 18% of the vote. Rudy Giuliani picks up 7%, just two points more than Ron Paul’s 5% support. Sixteen percent (16%) of Likely Voters remain undecided.
In addition to those who are undecided, 11% say there is a good chance they could change their mind and another 23% say they might change their mind.
Nationally, McCain, Romney, and Huckabee lead all Republicans in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Romney and McCain lead in Florida. New polling data shows Huckabee leading in Georgia while McCain and Huckabee are tied for the lead in Alabama.
In Missouri, Huckabee’s support is a bit more solid than McCain’s. Among those who currently support the former Arkansas Governor, 63% are “certain” they will vote for him on election day. Just 56% of McCain’s supporters are that certain. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Romney supporters say the same about their candidate.
Mike Huckabee is viewed favorably by 70% of Likely Republican Primary Voters while 67% offer such a positive assessment of McCain. Giuliani gets favorable reviews from 60% while Romney’s favorable ratings are at 58%. Ron Paul is viewed favorably by just 24%.
On the question of electability, John McCain clearly comes out on top in Missouri. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe that he would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by the GOP. Just 56% are that confident about Romney’s prospects, 54% believe Huckabee would have a chance and 53% say Giuliani would have a chance to win it all. Just 11% believe Paul would be even somewhat likely to win if nominated.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Missouri’s Likely Republican Primary Voters believe the War on Terror is a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-three percent (73%) say the same about Government Ethics and Corruption while 71% consider the Economy a Very Important voting issue. Sixty-five percent (65%) see the War on Iraq as that important while 60% see Immigration as Very Important.
Latest News on Super Tuesday and Huckabee
Wednesday, January 23, 2008; Page A07
With Super Tuesday on His Mind, Huckabee Campaigns in Georgia
ATLANTA -- Targeting the South and Midwest in advance of Feb. 5, when 21 states hold Republican primaries, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee called for a constitutional amendment banning abortions, saying on Tuesday at a rally on the steps of the Georgia Capitol that overturning Roe v. Wade would not go far enough.
"It's only a two-person race if the national media tries to pick the president for the people. It's absurd to let this become a play-yard shouting match between John McCain and Mitt Romney," Huckabee tells Michele Norris.
But the former Baptist minister has sharp criticism of his own of Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
"[Romney] can spend all the money in the world, [but] he can't change the fact that he's got a very, very tough message to sell because he's had so many different products out of the same box. He has a lot of money, and he's spent a lot of money. But for the amount of money that he's spent, he hasn't done that well.
"If people look at the money we've had, and how well we've done with it, I think that's the story that gives us some credibility to say we're in this thing for the long haul," Huckabee says, noting that his campaign has been frugal, relying on volunteers and limited resources, and has never gone into debt.
In addition, Huckabee says that he finds it difficult when he hears Romney "speak with such boldness about … being a conservative."
He cites video of Romney distancing himself from Reagan and Bush and also of him saying he would do more for the gay and lesbian agenda than Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA).
"For him to come along now and try to suddenly step in front of many of us who have been conservatives, when he obviously was not one, is just a little difficult to take.
"For many of us, we find [it] hard to believe that a person has just hit political puberty at age 60," he says.
Huckabee says he is now focused on the races at stake on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. He says his campaign has a "real shot to win and pick up significant delegates" in key states in the South and Midwest: Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Montana and West Virginia.
Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.
States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:
West Virginia 30
North Dakota 26
Politico.com: Politics "08
- Clinton, Obama crush GOP in funds race - Feb 1, 2008 - firstname.lastname@example.org (Kenneth P. Vogel)
- Democrats remain at par following debate - Feb 1, 2008 - email@example.com (Ben Smith)
- Obama beats Hillary over head with Iraq - Jan 31, 2008 - firstname.lastname@example.org (Roger Simon)
- Romney falls into McCain trap on Iraq - Jan 31, 2008 - email@example.com (Jonathan Martin)
- McCain practices the role of front-runner - Jan 30, 2008 - firstname.lastname@example.org (Roger Simon)
Friday, February 1, 2008
Super Tuesday Primer
There are contests of some sort in 24 states.
On the Republican side, some 900 delegates are up for grabs. On the Democratic side, nearly half of the 4,050 needed to win the nomination are at stake.
Here's the state-by-state outlook. The delegate numbers reflect the total available on Tuesday. In some cases, additional delegates will be awarded later:
GOP—-Open primary, 45 delegates, winner-take-all if candidate gets more than 50 percent statewide, otherwise proportional by congressional district. Most recent poll shows southerner Huckabee with three-point edge over McCain, and nobody else even close. Giuliani vote never got out of mid-single digits in Alabama, so his endorsement of McCain might not mean much.
DEM-Open primary, 52 delegates, proportional. Clinton has led in polls for more than a year. But in the most recent she had only a 3 percentage point lead over Obama. The state has a large black population, 26.3 percent, which could help Obama in the wake of his first-place finish in South Carolina.
GOP— Caucuses, 26 delegates, proportional. No recent polling data and none of the candidates has paid much attention to the state.
DEM-Caucuses, 13 delegates, proportional. No recent polling data, and neither candidate has campaigned in the state.
GOP — Closed primary, 50 delegates, winner-take-all. Look for big home-state win for McCain. Most recent poll had him up 17 points on second-place Romney.
DEM - Closed primary, 56 delegates, proportional. Most recent polling shows Clinton with a 37 percent-27 percent, lead over Obama. This is one of the states that Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy will campaign in for Obama in an effort to appeal to Hispanics, 29 percent of Arizona's population. Obama also has the support of Gov. Janet Napolitano.
GOP — Open primary, 31 delegates, proportional. Home-state win on tap for Huckabee, the state's former 10-year governor. December polls showed him near 60 percent, everybody else in single digits.
DEM -Open primary, 35 delegates, proportional. Clinton, the state's former first lady, leads in all polls by margins of at least 20 percent.
GOP - Closed primary, 170 delegates, winner-take-all in congressional districts. One of the Super Tuesday big kahunas that could help make it a big day for McCain. Two recent polls put him in front by 13-point and eight-point margins over Romney. Nether poll gave Huckabee much hope in California. By pulling a sizeable slice of the projected Giuliani vote, McCain could win by a solid margin and take home a boatload of delegates. Romney is hoping to break even. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's endorsement of McCain will help him.
DEM - Modified closed primary in which "unaffiliated" voters can vote in the Democratic contest, 370 delegates, proportional. A new Rasmussen poll shows Obama closing on Clinton: She got 43 percent of the vote, compared to 40 percent for Obama. California is another state where Kennedy will be used to appeal to Hispanics, 39 percent of the state's population.
GOP — Presidential preference poll at closed caucuses, 43 delegates to be awarded at February and March county conventions. One of few Super Tuesday states where polls show Romney in the lead. A mid-January survey had him up by a 43 percent to 24 percent margin over McCain. Huckabee was third at 17 percent. Potentially key western state in general election. Democrats, who hold their national convention in Denver, have won it only twice (1964 and 1992) in last 54 years.
DEM - Closed caucuses, 55 delegates, proportional. This is one of the few Super Tuesday states in which Obama has led in recent polls - 34-32 percent over Clinton in a Jan. 28 Mason-Dixon survey. Colorado is one of the states the Democratic Party is targeting in the fall election, in part because of its 19.7 percent Hispanic population and the Democratic trend in recent state elections.
GOP — Closed primary, 27 delegates, winner-take-all. Seems headed for big win for McCain. Mid-January poll had him at 39 percent, 28 points better than third-place Romney. McCain also could get boost from endorsement from Giuliani, who was running second in Connecticut with 16 percent.
DEM - Closed primary, 48 delegates, proportional. Clinton has long led the polls here, but a new Rasmussen poll shows the two Democrats tied, 40-40 percent. Clinton leads by four points among women, Obama leads by six among men.
GOP — Closed primary, 15 delegates, winner-take-all. No recent public polls, but surveys taken late last year had Giuliani, now out of the race, running first at 37 percent, with McCain second at 14, Fred ThompsonFred-Thompson-Failed-Hearings Nov-07 third at 13 and Romney fourth at 10. Giuliani's endorsement of McCain could be significant.
DEM-Closed primary, 15 delegates, proportional. No recent polling is available, but last fall Clinton led the entire Democratic field with 41 percent.
GOP - Open primary, 69 delegates, statewide winner-take-all for 30 delegates, congressional district winner-take-all for 39 delegates. Huckabee counting on Southern win but recent polls show McCain momentum and Romney in striking distance and Huckabee trailing.
DEM - Open primary, 87 delegates, proportional. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Obama with a healthy lead over Clinton, 51-41 percent. The poll shows Obama getting 73 percent of the state's black vote, but trailing Clinton 56 percent-36 percent among white voters.
GOP - Open primary/caucus, 29 delegates, 23 selected on statewide proportional basis from primary vote, six selected at June state convention. No recent polling data. Heavy Mormon population could help Romney.
DEM - Open caucus , 18 delegates, proportional. The latest polls show Obama with a slight lead, 33-31 percent over Clinton. But one in five Democrats remain undecided, and another 15 percent backed Edwards before he dropped out.
GOP - Open primary, 67 delegates, including 10 selected at June state convention. Actually, two GOP presidential contests on Illinois ballot. In one, candidate names will appear. Results of that have no bearing on delegate allocation. In second race, the one that counts, names of delegates (and the candidate they represent) appear on ballot in contest for the 57 delegates up for grabs Tuesday. Most recent poll has McCain at 31 percent and Romney second at 20 percent.
DEM - Open primary, 153 delegates, proportional. Obama has a commanding lead over Clinton in his home state. A recent poll by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch found Obama leading 51-22 percent over Clinton, including a 60-11 percent lead among men and a 44-30 percent lead among women.
GOP - Feb. 9.
DEM - Closed caucuses, 32 delegates, proportional. Obama's campaign is confident about his chances of winning the caucuses here. He is the son of an African father and a white mother from Kansas. "We're family," he said in visit to state. Recently endorsed by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.
GOP - Primary open to Republicans and Independents, 40 delegates, proportional. Should be a home-turf win for former Massachusetts Gov. Romney. Recent poll has him at 50 percent, 21 points better than McCain.
DEM - Modified primary in which unaffiliated voters can vote, 93 delegates, proportional. Kennedy's endorsement of Obama is likely to enhance the Illinois senator's chances. Prior to the Kennedy endorsement, Obama trailed Clinton, 37-25 percent. But the most recent polls show Clinton's lead shrinking, 43-37 percent, over Obama.
GOP - Open caucuses, 38 delegates, complicated process for selection delegates, all of whom are unbound. Presidential preference poll - which does not affect delegate allocation - will be held at caucuses. Some or all of 24 congressional districts could be allocated at caucuses. No recent polling data. Back in September, a survey showed Giuliani at 27 percent, McCain at 22 percent, Thompson at 16 percent and Romney at 5 percent. But Romney has pumped resources into the state and could do well.
DEM - Open caucuses, 72 delegates, proportional. Clinton has a comfortable lead, 47 percent-22 percent, over Obama, in recent polls. But Minnesota is one of the states Obama plans to visit before the voting Tuesday.
GOP - Open primary, 55 delegates, winner-take-all. Recent poll gave McCain a just-beyond-the-margin-of-error lead of six points over second-place Huckabee, who is counting on evangelical Christians. Romney was third at 21. Winner-take-all rules make this a big win for whoever takes it.
DEM - Open primary, 72 delegates, proportional. This is one of the states the Clinton campaign has targeted. It was the first state former President Clinton visited following the South Carolina primary. Clinton has been leading in polls, by 12 percentage points in the latest. But Obama has the backing of Sen. Claire McCaskill, a popular figure in her home state.
GOP - Closed caucuses, 22 delegates, winner-take-all for 19 at-large delegates, congressional district winner-take-all for 3 delegates. Mid-December poll showed bunched pack with Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney and Thomson, in that order, within four points of each other. McCain was fifth, but expect a reshuffling with Thompson and Giuliani gone.
DEM - June 3
GOP - Primary open to Republicans and independents, 49 delegates, winner-take-all. A state where Giuliani's withdrawal could have a major impact. Three January polls showed he was a real contender in New Jersey. In one, he led McCain by a 34 percent to 18 percent margin with Romney third at 11. In the other two, McCain led with 29 percent and Giuliani was second at 26 and 25. Romney scored no better than 11 percent in any of the polls, making a Tuesday win for him a long shot.
DEM - Modified primary in which unaffiliated voters can vote, 107 delegates, proportional. Clinton is leading in most polls, some by margins of 17 percentage points. She also has the backing of Gov. Jon Corzine and Sen. Bob Menendez. Hispanic voting will be important in New Jersey, where the Latino population is 15.6 percent. But so will the votes of African Americans, who make up 14.5 percent of the state's population, and they could go overwhelmingly to Obama.
GOP - June 3
DEM - Closed primary, 26 delegates, proportional. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who served in the Clinton cabinet, is under pressure to endorse Clinton. Before ending his own presidential campaign, Richardson led in the polls in his home state, 44-17 percent over Clinton. Hispanic votes are the key. Forty-four percent of the state's population is Latino, one of the reasons the Obama campaign is bringing in Kennedy.
GOP - Closed primary, 98 delegates, winner-take-all. Surveys indicate potential big win for McCain. He led in three of four January polls, with Giuliani second in each. Romney's totals varied from 9 to 19 percent. McCain could clinch the state by picking up a healthy proportion of former Giuliani backers.
DEM - Closed primary, 232 delegates, proportional. This is a chance for Clinton to pile up delegates with a big win in her home state. The latest polls show her with a 56-28 percent lead over Obama. But analysts will look post-Super Tuesday to see how well Obama did in his rival's home state.
GOP - Closed caucus, 23 delegates, proportional. No recent public polls.
DEM - Open caucus, 13 delegates, proportional. There are no recent polls, and the candidates have paid scant attention to the state.
GOP - Closed primary, 38 delegates, 23 winner-take-all statewide, 15 winner-take-all by congressional district. Huckabee is counting on an Oklahoma win. Mid-December poll gave him solid 12-point lead on second-place McCain. Romney was at 9 percent.
DEM - Closed primary, 38 delegates, proportional. Clinton has been the leader in polls for months, the latest showing her with a 34-15 percent lead over Obama. In those polls, however, Edwards typically ran third, and winning over his supporters could boost Obama. It also would be a test of how well Obama can do with white voters. The state's is 72.1 percent white, with a black population of 7.8 percent and Hispanic 6.9 percent.
GOP - Open primary, 52 delegates, proportional. Former home state Sen. Thompson had one-point edge on Huckabee prior to dropping out. Huckabee now the favorite but recent polls showed McCain momentum.
DEM - Open primary, 68 delegates, proportional. The latest polls show Clinton leading 34 percent-20 percent over Obama. This was the first state Clinton visited after losing the South Carolina primary to Obama. Former Vice President Al Gore's endorsement would boost either candidate, but so far, Gore has avoided taking sides, even with the wife of the man he served as vice president.
GOP - Primary open to Republicans and Independents, 33 delegates, winner-take-all. Romney is prohibitive favorite in heavily Mormon state.
DEM - Modified primary in which unaffiliated voters can vote, 23 delegates, proportional. Recent polls show Clinton leading Obama, 37-22 percent.
GOP - State convention, 27 delegates, winner-take-all. No recent polling but close three-way race possible.
DEM - May 13.
Michael H. Drucker