Truemors
Super Tuesday Exit Polls: Right Here
7:50 pm
ALABAMA (Dems: 52; GOP: 45)
Huckabee working hard to defeat McCain. Large black population makes this fertile territory for Obama. Polls close at 7 p.m.
ALASKA (caucuses; Dems: 13; GOP: 26)
Romney making an effort. State tilts toward Obama. Polls close at 1 a.m.
ARIZONA (Dems: 56; GOP: 53 WTA)
McCain poised to capture all 53 delegates in a home-state primary. Hispanic voters are key. They have favored Clinton in early contests, but Obama dispatched Sen. Edward M. Kennedy to help. Polls close at 8 p.m.
ARKANSAS (Dems: 35; GOP: 31)
Huckabee's home state. Clinton was first lady of the state for a dozen years. Polls close at 7:30 p.m.
CALIFORNIA (Dems: 370; GOP: 170)
McCain counting on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's help in the state with the largest haul of delegates. Clinton has led in the polls for months. The Hispanic vote is critical. Polls close at 10 p.m. OTHER DECISIONS: A San Francisco initiative seeks to turn Alcatraz Island into a Global Peace Center, but the vote is purely symbolic. A statewide referendum would repeal four agreements Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger struck with casino-operating Indian tribes.
COLORADO (caucuses; Dems: 55; GOP: 43)
Romney making a play. Edge for Obama. Polls close at 11 p.m.
CONNECTICUT (Dems: 48; GOP: 27 WTA)
McCain favored in winner-take-all primary. Democratic battleground. Sen. Chris Dodd, an early presidential race casualty, has not endorsed. Polls close at 7 p.m.
DELAWARE (Dems: 15; GOP: 18 WTA)
McCain favored in winner-take all primary. Democratic toss-up. Polls close at 7 p.m.
GEORGIA (Dems: 87; GOP: 72)
Obama benefits from a large black population for win, based on exit poll data. GOP to be decided
PRECINCTS REPORTING:
DEMOCRATS
Clinton:
Obama:
REPUBLICANS
Huckabee:
McCain:
Paul:
Romney:
IDAHO: (Democratic caucuses: 18)
Obama favored. Polls close at 11 p.m.
ILLINOIS (Dems: 153; GOP: 57)
Favors McCain. Delegate names are on the ballot. Obama's home state. Polls close at 7 p.m.
OTHER DECISIONS: GOP voters nominate candidates to replace Rep. Dennis Hastert and the retiring Rep. Jerry Weller. Democrat Rep. Dan Lipinski tries to fight off three challengers.
KANSAS (Democratic caucuses only 32)
Obama favored. Polls close at 7 p.m.
MASSACHUSETTS (Dems: 93; GOP: 40)
Romney's base awards delegates proportionally. Obama hopes support from Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. Edward Kennedy can overcome Clinton's longtime lead. Polls close at 8 p.m.
MINNESOTA (caucuses; Dems: 72; GOP: 38)
McCain has support of Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Norm Coleman. Obama hopes for a caucus victory. Polls close at 8 p.m.
MISSOURI (Dems: 72; GOP: 58 WTA)
HEADLINE: Most competitive three-way Republican race of the night. A Clinton-Obama tossup. Polls close at 7 p.m.
MONTANA (GOP caucus: 25 WTA)
Romney tries for another western triumph after Nevada and Wyoming, this one winner-take-all. Polls close at 11 p.m.
NEW JERSEY (Dems: 107; GOP: 52 WTA)
Winner-take-all state should be McCain's. New Yorker Clinton's next-door neighbors. Polls close at 7 p.m.
NEW MEXICO (Democratic caucuses: 26)
An early dropout, Gov. Bill Richardson has yet to endorse. Another Hispanic test for Obama. Polls close at 8 p.m.
NEW YORK (Dems: 232; GOP: 101 WTA)
McCain's, with the help of Rudy Giuliani and large numbers of moderate Republicans. Clinton's home state. Obama hopes to win his share of delegates. Polls close at 8 p.m.
NORTH DAKOTA (caucuses; Dems: 13; GOP: 23)
Romney made late effort. Obama favored, with the support of Sen. Kent Conrad. Polls close at 10 p.m.
OKLAHOMA (Dems: 38; GOP:38)
Three-way Republican tossup for McCain, Romney and Huckabee. Clinton territory. Polls close at 7 p.m.
TENNESSEE (Dems: 68; GOP:52)
McCain, Romney and Huckabee all making an effort. Favors Clinton. Polls close at 7 p.m.
UTAH (Dems: 23; GOP: 36 WTA)
Heavy Mormon population makes it Romney's. Democratic tossup. Polls close at 9 p.m.
WEST VIRGINIA (GOP state convention: 18 WTA)
Huckabee wins all 18 delegates as backers of John McCain threw him their support to prevent Mitt Romney from capturing the winner-take-all GOP state convention vote.
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 100 percent
REPUBLICANS
Huckabee: 567 - 51.5 percent (18)
Romney: 521 - 47.4 percent
McCain: 12 - 1 percent
7:00pm We will be reporting exit polling from network consortium in the next few minutes
Politisite: What we are seeing in early exit polls is that the arguing between McCain and Romney has helped Huckabee as it did in Iowa. Looks like Huckabee will win much more in the south than just his home state of Arkansas. Pollsters are relating a high turnout by evangelicals 79% f which are voting Huckabee. Now I am not so sure if pollsters the the differance between an evangelical and a Moderate Christian but self reports are strong Huckabee support in the south.
On the Democratic side: Obama has been in an upward trend and is catching additional votes. Obama will do much better than polling data. We have Obama in a clear win in Georgia. The Exit polls relate a much better outcome. According to some polls, Obama has been helped by Endorsements especially in California
Looking for leaked Exit Polling data? Not this year says top officals of the network consortium that had problems with containing data in 2004. The word is the pollsters have been locked in a room until 7:00 pm tonight. We will over the exit polls at the same time they are released to the networks, Sorry. So check back here on NowPublic and Politisite after 7 pm for the firs words on the net. In the mean time you can review our projections released late last night on the projected results of the election. See our article on NowPublic at Super Tuesday: Politisite Political Projections. Also check out these articles of our Coverage of Super Tuesday: Super Tuesday: First Election Results from West Virginia Because the Super Tuesday News is NowPublic.
What are Exit Polls?
An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters - usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters - conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count.
The Campaign Spot on National Review Online
The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report
I just got a big pile of exit poll data.
The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent.
Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual.
Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.
Winner take all. If these numbers hold - and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney.
Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent.
Now on to the NYC-metro-area states:
New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.
New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.
Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.
More or less what we expected.
Now the big Mitt states:
The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.
I think I’m ready to call that one.
Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.
But in McCain’s home state…
Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.
That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected.
On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee…
Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent.
Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23.
Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19.
Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27.
A barnburner!
Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18.
Not a big state, but it's winner take all, so I'm sure Team Romney would take it.
Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.
Since we do not have the Network Consortium data leaked. Lets give you Politisite Projected Winners.
Arizona - McCain Wins
Arkansas - Huckabee Wins , Clinton Wins
Georgia - Obama Wins
Tennessee - Clinton Wins
New York - Clinton Wins. McCain Wins
Edison Research Exit Poll Data just in
Early Feb. 5 Exit Poll Highlights
Early Feb. 5 Exit Poll Highlights
Highlights from preliminary results of exit polling in the Super Tuesday primary states for The Associated Press and television networks:
RACE AND GENDER
In the Democratic races, Barack Obama led among black voters and Hillary Rodham Clinton led among Hispanic voters. Obama led among white men, while Clinton led among white women. Overall, Obama led among men and Clinton led among women, although her advantage among women appeared smaller than was seen in early primary states. In the Republican races, John McCain led among men. He had only a small lead over Romney among women.
CONSERVATIVES AND MODERATES
John McCain led among Republicans who call themselves moderates, while Romney led among Republicans who call themselves conservatives. McCain had a small lead among Republicans and a large advantage among independents voting in the Republican primaries.
DECISIONS, DECISIONS
About one in 10 voters in each party said they decided whom to vote for on Tuesday. Slightly more said they decided in the last three days. About half of Democratic primary voters and a third of Republicans said they made up their minds more than a month ago.
ECONOMIC WORRIES
Voters in both parties most frequently picked the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Given three choices, half of Democratic primary voters picked the economy, three in 10 said the war in Iraq and the remaining two in 10 said health care. Republican primary voters had four choices for that question and four in 10 picked the economy; two in 10 picked immigration and the war in Iraq and somewhat fewer said terrorism.
Looking for Super Tuesday Exit Polls?
Looking for leaked exit poll results from the Super Tuesday states? As regular readers know, the leaks of exit poll we experienced in 2004 and prior years have been stopped, as the the network consortium that conducts the exit polls now restricts access to a small number of analysts in a "quarantine room" for most of the day and did not release the results to the networks and subscriber news organizations until 5:00 p.m. eastern time. While some of that information will leak a leak, that process will remain in place today (Tom Webster, an employee of Edison Research, has blogged some details about life inside the quarantine room).
What this means (and those of you who play the various election "futures" or predictions markets should listen closely) is that any "exit poll" numbers you hear about before 5:00 p.m. are bogus (or at least, not produced by the networks).
Here are a few tips for making sense of the exit poll data you will see tonight (a slightly edited version of tips I posted on the morning of the New Hampshire primary, with a few edits):
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1) An exit poll is just a survey. Like other surveys, it is subject to random sampling error and, as those who follow exit polls now understand, occasional problems with non-response bias. In New Hampshire (in 1992) and Arizona (in 1996)* primary election exit polls overstated support for Patrick Buchanan, probably because his more enthusiastic supporters were more willing to be interviewed (and for those tempted to hit he comment button, yes, I know that some believe those past errors suggest massive vote fraud -- I have written about that subject at great length).
2) The networks rarely "call" an election on exit poll results alone. The decision desk analysts require a very high degree of statistical confidence (at least 99.5%) before they will consider calling a winner (the ordinary "margin of error" on pre-election polls typically uses a 95% confidence level). They will also wait for actual results if the exit poll is very different from pre-election poll trends. So a single-digit margin on an exit poll is almost never sufficient to say that a particular candidate will win.
3) Watch out for "The Composite." As they have for the earlier primaries, we expect the web sites of CNN, MSNBC and CBS to post exit poll tabulations shortly after the polls close that will update as the election night wears on (we will post links and commentary here, so we hope you'll plan to check back in later tonight). Those data are weighted to whatever estimate of the outcome the analysts have greatest confidence in at any moment. By the end of the night, the tabulations will be weighted to the official count. Typically, the first waves of exit poll tabulations (including most that leak before the polls close) are weighted to something called the "Composite Estimate," a combination of the exit poll data alone and a "Prior Estimate" that is based largely on pre-election poll results. So if you look to extrapolate from the initial tabulations posted on MSNBC or CNN (as we have done here at Pollster each primary night this year), just keep in mind that in the estimate of each candidate's standing in the initial reports will likely mix exit poll and the pre-election poll estimates (not unlike the kind we report here).
Finally, if you would like more information on how exit polls are conducted, you may want to revisit a Mystery Pollster classic: Exit Polls - What You Should Know. Happy Super Tuesday!
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