Venezuela: The Future is Today

CARACAS --

Backed by a barrage of ads on government airwaves, President Hugo Chávez is betting on victory in a vote Sunday that would give him nearly absolute control of Venezuela and solidify his role as the leader of Latin America's anti-U.S. left in the post-Castro era.

But Chávez's proposal to amend the Venezuelan Constitution -- including the right for him to seek reelection indefinitely -- is losing in some of the latest polls, and the outcome remains in doubt for a president who has not lost a national vote since 1998.

The results of the vote will have repercussions far beyond this country of 27 million people. A Chávez victory would sharpen the bitter and long-running conflict with the United States, which buys about 10 percent of its oil imports from Venezuela.

Chávez himself has made a point of presenting the vote as one more chapter in the battle against ''the empire.'' 'Anyone who votes `No' is voting for George W. Bush,'' Chavez shouted to a sea of supporters Friday. ``Our true enemy is the U.S. empire, and on Sunday, Dec. 2, we're going to give another knockout to Bush.''

Chávez and his supporters say they will accept Sunday's outcome, whatever the results. Opposition leaders have refused to make the same pledge, saying they fear that the president will resort to fraud to win, if necessary.

''The future of Venezuela's democracy depends on the outcome,'' said Omar Barboza, president of the biggest opposition party. ``Chávez wants to establish the Cuban model in Venezuela.''

For his part, Chávez said: 'He who says he supports Chávez but votes `no' is a traitor, a true traitor. He's against me, against the revolution and against the people.''

On Saturday he warned against attempts to stir up violence, and threatened to cut off oil exports to the U.S. if Washington interferes. ''In the case of an aggression by the United States government, we wouldn't send any more oil to that country . . . Forget about our oil,'' he told reporters.

FOES MAY NOT VOTE

Most polls in recent days have shown a majority rejecting the proposed amendments. But Sunday's outcome will depend largely on the turnout, since many Chávez opponents plan to stay home to avoid legitimizing a pro-Chávez result that they say is preordained.

Chávez has taken no chances leading up to Sunday's voting. Ads extolling the benefits of the proposed changes have blanketed government television and radio stations in recent days.

The ads have focused on changes that are particularly popular with voters: reducing the work week from 40 hours to 36; extending the pension system to include maids, street vendors and others in the informal economy; and giving the citizens more say by creating new neighborhood councils.

The ads have downplayed or ignored the more controversial amendments that would abolish presidential term limits, lift some civil rights during declared states of emergency, and make it easier for the government to nationalize private property.

In rural areas, where Chávez supporters have traditionally been the overwhelming majority, the presence of the ''no'' campaign has been minimal.

A daylong tour of the Barlovento region of Miranda state -- where poor, peasant communities predominate -- revealed not a single ''no'' poster but many houses displaying ''yes'' posters.

Some violence erupted during the referendum campaign, with one person killed and several dozen injured in clashes during pro-Chávez and anti-Chávez marches.

The election day post: the doomsday vote

12:43

Back from voting. It was a breeze. But it was also a mystery: my
table had no line whatsoever but all the other tables had at least a
couple of dozen people waiting and more outside as people were allowed
in only as their voting table cleared up some. I was allowed to walk
right in.

I did drive around some, visiting about a dozen voting centers,
including two in very chavista areas. No lines anywhere. No way to
judge abstention so far. My voting book had only two signatures when I
voted, I was the third one to sign. This time it had only 10 names per
page (I think). I sort of hung around trying to glance at other pages
and none had more than 2 to 4 lines filled up. Thus there are plenty of
people to vote as obviously more than half the people have not moved
there. And I vote in one of the most anti Chavez district of San
Felipe.

Not just a day in the life...

8:30 AM Reports are that voting is light everywhere, pro-Chavez or pro-opposition.

12:00 AM I took spin around Caracas from one end to the other and it
is better than people had told me but it is also a very mixed and
somewhat confusing picture.

First I went to my voting center upper middle class and anti-Chavez
and lines were not long but it would have taken me about half an hour
to vote so I decided to postpone it. I then did a spin nearby and all
seemed similar lines maybe 20-50 meters long in definitely pro-Chavez
areas.

Then I went towards Petare along the Romulo Gallegos. Near Boleita a
lower middle class area that tends to go slightly pro-Chavez (55-60% in
his favor), there were longer lines maybe 100-200 meters in length.

Then came the surprises. I went to Petare, pro-Chavez territory and
saw four schools, three had no lines whatsoever. In fact I almost
missed one because it was empty and was able to park the car and take a
picture in the middle of the road (below). The fourth one, by contrast,
had the longest lien I saw today about three to four hundred meters.

Then I went the other extreme towards Caricuao, another pro-Chavez area and there were no lines anywhere.