by
glossator | April 20, 2007 at 09:53 pm
266 views | 0 Recommendations |
2 comments
For what it is worth:
the final poll of French electors has M. Sarkozy at 26.5%, Mme Royal at 25.5%, M Le Pen at 16.5% and M Bayrou at 16%, with M Sarkozy and Mme Royal tied at 50% each in the second round.
That is the highest figure I've seen for the Front National head Jean-Marie Le Pen and the lowest I've seen for the 'centrist' François Bayrou since he first got into the race: leaving some 15% of the voters still uncertain how they will cast their ballots (or at least not telling the pollsters their choices).
In the last presidential race, at the first round, 28.4% abstained from voting, and Messrs Chirac and Le Pen went on to the second round with, respectively, 19.9% and 16.9% of the vote. It would please me immensely if by some miracle M. Le Pen knocks out Mme Royal: since he is polling at the level he actually won in 2002, I am inclined to suspect that he is going to collect more votes than he's polling: but perhaps I am too susceptible to the press speculation about people being reticent to admit to voting for the Front National. We'll see beginning in about 24 hours. .
Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (2)
at 03:07 on April 21st, 2007
Front National is not a solution! But neither seem to be the other candidates. What the two big states in Europe (France and Germany) are desperately in need of is a political party telling more than the same old story. China has one party telling one story, Germany and France have a number of them telling the same story in nuances. Now, people like LePen tell a different story, but thank you, no. It is playing with fire. In the absence of real visions and a unified front of politicians refusing an own profile things are drifiting towards radicalisation. The question is, will transition to another political system be possible from within, and if so, will it be peaceful? I share your implicit viewpoint that inside the European electorate a tectonical tension is building that will make results ever more unpredictable, that holds the potential for a political earthquake. The strenest warning to date has been the rejection of the EU-constitution by the voters in France and Holland and the business as usual with which especially German politicians try to wipe this strong expression of discontent off the table. Ignorant policies are the breeding ground for the LePens. The usual blame-game (i.e. blaming the voters for voting extreme in the absence of anyone listening to their story) is like blaming the bacteria for being on a kitchen sponge. One can do it, but it is hardly going to change anything unless one responds to the problem instead of blaming the symptoms.
at 12:24 on April 29th, 2007
Was there meant to be an update to this? It's now down to Sarkozy and Royal, with Bayrou angling to get his agenda in there!