Vesuvius eruption: the real situation that the National Geographic doesn't report

The Vesuvius is one of the most interesting active explosive volcano on the Earth famous for the eruption of 79 A.D that destroyed Pompeii and Ercolanum not so far from Naples in Campania, South Italy.

This month, a National Geographic article by Steven S. Hall about the Vesuvius makes here in Campania region a big misunderstanding and fears among people even that civil organizations has to send an SMS alert to people in towns under Vesuviius that the situation were undercontrol and no imminent eruptions going to arrive for calm a big volcano-psychosis .
Where is the situations? What was about the NG article?
Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo, a volcanologist. of Vesuvian Observatory tells about an ancient eruption of 1780 b.J called “the eruption of Avellino pomice – an event didn’t preserve by the historical memory ( I that I live in Avellino -about 80 km from Naples - I don’t know about any documentation here). After a long focus on this event full of archeoogy history, Mastrolorenzo declare that if from the eruption of Avellino pomice to the eruption of 79A.D, about 2000 years are passed, a new strong plinian eruption should blow up in these years.
Ancient people of our land, remember about a soft eruption of the volcano in 40’s during the Second World War, while American troups flew over this land. From this eruption we preserve some memories of a dark sky full of black ashes and a urban road surfacing made by lava and a big build activity that in these years create a lot of houses on the green mountainside of the Vesuvius.
But according to Mastrolorenzo, if between the two big Vesuvius explosions of 1780 b.J and 79 A.D, about 2,000 years are passed, a new strong dangerus volcano activity can rise up soon while his doubt on a good emergency plan of escape are expressed in the article.
At the moment, the plan put in a “red zone” 18 town for a total of 600,000 people. But, however, Marcello Martini, the president of the Vesuvius observatory, criticizes the words of Mastrolorenzo: the sofisticated instruments don’t evidence the possibility of a dangerous eruption now and the security plan is good and the volcano is always under control. The statistics show that the only the 1% of possibilities declares that a plinian eruption so strong as in the 79 a.J will be possible.

Actually, the people involves in the red zone, can receive a bonus of 30,000 euros from the region authority for immigrating in another town and buy a new house far from the volcano: but people of the aerea protest for the less value of this offer . But it’s true that the interior of rural zone and residencial one as in the town near by Avellino and Benevento are full of people from this zone. But in really habitants denounce that these people buy a home for having money, after they don’t go away by their hometown and use their new house for weekend in mountain or for earn money renting out their apartments or villas while local people complain them for the general inflation of the value of apartments. If in the downtown of Avellino in 1990 you could pay abot 75 euros for a meter , now you spend 2500 euros.

* you can read the National Geographic article here http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0709/vesuvius/vesuvius.html