Rudy Likely In, But Will He be GOP?

Rudy Giuliani takes one more step toward fullblown candidacy.

Associated Press:

Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor whose popularity soared after his response to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, moved closer to a full-fledged campaign for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday.

In a sign that he's serious about running for the White House, the two-term mayor was filing a so-called "statement of candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission. In the process, he was eliminating the phrase "testing the waters" from earlier paperwork establishing his exploratory committee, said an official close to Giuliani's campaign.

[...]

The steps Monday put Giuliani on the same level, legally, as McCain and Romney, the other two top-tier GOP candidates who have formed regular exploratory committees and filed statements of candidacy.

So he's basically as much of a candidate as anyone else right now. Less interesting than the question of whether or not he'll run is whether the pro-choice, pro-gun control former Mayor of NYC who doesn't hate gays nearly enough for the wingnuts will run as a republican.

Newsday, via Political Wire:

The ex-mayor still is holding back from submitting the simple one-page form declaring himself a possible candidate, despite raising $1.4 million to run. And asked what party he belongs to on a different form, Giuliani didn't say - he left the answer blank... Giuliani's campaign confirmed that leaving off the Republican designation wasn't a typo.

I'm not seeing anything in the AP piece that confirms he's filing as a republican. It's extremely doubtful that he'd switch parties; it's a little late in the game to start reinventing yourself. But an independent run wouldn't be completely out of the question.

Still, with absolutely no evidence of it, I'd have to give an independent run by Giuliani a 5% chance -- I'm not ruling it out (and I doubt his campaign has), but I'd say it was pretty damned unlikely. On the other hand, he may pull a Lieberman. If he loses the primary, but has reason to believe he'd win the election, he may declare an independent run at that point.

In other words, it's too damned early to predict anything, but the possibilities look fun.