BCS Championship Game Breakdown : Ohio State vs. LSU

The BCS title game likes an underdog, you can bet on that. LSU is 4 ½ point favorites but nobody should be comfortable betting against this year’s most undeserving team (as dubbed by some), despite the fact the game is at New Orleans.

The games total is at 50 ½. Part of me says this should be a low-scoring game. Another part of me thinks it could somehow be a shoot-out considering how so many LSU games have turned out. I’m guessing it’s neither but there is enough firepower to eclipse that total. Hence, to get a reliable read on the outcome of this game, consider the NCAA College Football Odds.

Let’s address why OSU won’t just beat the spread but also run over and around the “Damn fine football team.”

No disrespect to the Tigers, who have had a huge target on their back all season and of course, “never lost in regulation” but something seems off in Baton Rouge.

Why all the quotes, you wonder? Well, because they are from none other than the always newsworthy LSU Head Coach Les Miles. Miles has been going through a major drama, with the biggest game of his life coming up, being offered his dream job at Michigan (he is a Michigan alumni) and his Defensive Coordinator (Bo Pelini) now part-timing as head coach for Nebraska.

Sure no stats or 40 yard dash times were just mentioned but that sure is a bunch to think about.

Now compare that to Ohio State, who last year flopped in last year’s BCS Title game, resulting in an off-season of doubters and humiliation and you can see why focus won’t be an issue for them. They enter the game largely unproven on the year, with their best away victories against Penn State and Michigan and their big win at home was against Wisconsin. None of those teams finished within 10 points in any of those big games.

These two teams have a combined 3 losses, so neither is perfect but they’re each solid, with future NFL draft picks everywhere.

LSU lost to Kentucky and Arkansas. This is interesting because each of those teams plays a different style of football, with Kentucky throwing it and Arkansas running many spread options and up-the-gut running plays.

Ohio State lost to Illinois, where Juice Williams ran and threw all over the OSU D, humiliating them while they ran out the clock in the 4th quarter.

LSU QB Ryan Perrilloux fits the Juice Williams mold and he just played a solid game in the SEC Championship against Tennessee, throwing for 243 yards, one touchdown and one pick.  QB Matt Flynn started the season on the 1st team and Perrilloux killed his chances to start after some off-field issues. Not until Flynn got injured did Perrilloux start and he has played great. Statistically, he is better in yards per attempt, touchdown to interception ratio and has a QB rating 50 points higher overall.

Based on the above facts, one would think Perrilloux will be getting a bunch of the snaps.

RB Jacob Hester has over a thousand rushing yards and does not fumble. He’s a classic overachiever.  

On defense they have all-everything DT Glenn Dorsey, who will likely become the first player taken in the 2008 NFL Draft. His health will be vital to stuffing the run. Ali Highsmith is their best linebacker who will be playing his final game.

This is a senior laden group of players, a group that was recruited by Nick Saban. They are battle tested. How they can ignore the madness will be key.

For the Buckeyes, QB Todd Boeckman had Troy Smith-esque numbers up until the final two games. Boeckman threw 3 picks in the loss to Illinois and was visibly flustered. He did not put up numbers against Michigan but to his defense, the weather was terrible.  Boeckman will need to play smart, which the folks in Columbus seem confident will happen.

Their offense centers on stud RB Chris “Beanie” Wells. The true sophomore played with a broken hand and bum ankle this season, so the 51-game layoff will do him wonders.

OSU’s offensive line is their best in years. The offense this year is an I-formation pound it team who can also throw the ball. The offensive line, Beanie Wells and a solid group of wideouts give OSU a balanced offense.

On defense James Laurinaitis is the Butkus winner, with Vernon Gholston and Malcom Jenkins all looking at big NFL dollars next year should they leave early.

This is a young Ohio State team who is fresh with wounds from last year.

Overall, this should be a slow, grind it out game until things open up at some point. If it’s close late, somebody could get hurt because both defensive units bring it.

In my opinion, Ohio State has a better chance at winning, especially if they can get up early. Chris Wells is an imposing back with a nasty O-Line in front of him.

Despite LSU’s experience, they are one of the most penalized teams in the nation. The OSU D thrives off of putting an offense in bad positions. It will take a great performance to beat this year’s version of Ohio State. Too many distractions will once again take down the favorite.

Ohio State-34

LSU- 26