Big Brown Gets Rail for Triple Crown Bid

Big Brown will begin his quest to be the first horse to win the Triple Crown in thirty years from the rail.  He’s a huge favorite at 2 to 5 and, in my opinion, will no doubt go off at odds closer to 1 to 5 or maybe 1 to 9.

When it was all said and done, after the quarter-crack, the whispers on the backstretch about Casino Drive, etc, etc - - the Belmont Park line-maker couldn’t help himself and instilled Big Brown as the 2 to 5 chalk.

It makes sense.  Stupid me, but I believed Big Brown’s veterinarian when he said late last week that the horse couldn’t train before the special patch was applied to his hoof.  Well, Big Brown did train and he trained beautifully.  He worked five furlongs in around a minute.  Most impressive was how the gigantic colt glided across the track.  They’re going to put the patch on Big Brown’s hoof on Friday.

I’m still going to pick against him because I can’t get myself to bet on a 2 to 5 shot in the Belmont Stakes.  Yes, I know that Big Brown is probably heads above every other horse in the race, but I can’t get myself to go for it.  I just can’t.

I haven’t decided who I am picking on top, but it won’t be Big Brown.  I can guarantee you that!

It might be Casino Drive whose connections appeared downright jolly Wednesday morning during the post position draw.  Casino Drive is trained by the top horseman in Japan, Kazuo Fujisawa.  Fujisawa trains his horses in an odd manner.  He doesn’t really let them work.  He let’s them sort of walk briskly.  In any case, it’s worked for the guy who has more winners in Japan then any American trainer has in the United States.

The Belmont Park lines-maker installed Casino Drive as the 7 to 2 second choice.  If he holds those odds, then I’ll be playing him to win no matter who I pick before the race.  I just can’t see the American online betting public letting a horse like Casino Drive go off at odds of more then 5 to 2.

The third choice on the morning line is Denis of Cork at 12 to 1.  Denis of Cork has a real shot to pull an upset in this race.  He can improve but he’ll need Casino Drive to put pressure on Big Brown early to help set up his late run.

The fourth choices on the morning line are Macho Again, Tale of Ekati, and Icabad Crane.  All three horses are at the odds of 20 to 1.  All three appear up against it versus both Casino Drive and Big Brown, but all three could pull a magnificent upset.

Tale of Ekati, in particular, is extremely enticing at those 20 to 1 odds.  I expect Tale of Ekati to go off at around 12 to 15 to 1 on race-day.  That means that if you can lock into the 20 to 1 odds on an online sportsbook and you like Tale of Ekati, then do it.

I don’t expect Macho Again or Icabad Crane to go off at odds of less than 20 to 1.  Both horses could float as high as 30 to 35 to 1 in this race.

The fifth choices on the morning line are Ready’s Echo, D’Tara and Anak Nakal at 30 to 1.  Ready’s Echo is intriguing.  He’s on my short list of horses that I do believe could beat Big Brown in this race.  Anak Nakal doesn’t appear to have a chance.  D’Tara might be there to ensure a fast pace for Anak Nakal as both horses are trained by New Yorker Nick Zito.

I’m not sure what to make of D’Tara.  He’s improving but he’d have to improve a ton just to finish in the top six in this race.

Finally, the fifth choice on the morning line is none other than Guadalcanal.  Nobody thought that his connections would enter him into this race, but it makes sense.  The purse is one million dollars.  If Guadalcanal finishes fifth, he picks up a decent paycheck.

We’re only three days away!  Can Big Brown do it?  Can he win the Triple Crown?

We’ll just have to wait and see!