Big Brown’s Odds More Than Fair in Belmont Stakes Week

According to Big Brown’s trainer, Richard Dutrow, his victory in the Belmont Stakes is a “foregone conclusion.”  Dutrow will know that Big Brown has won the race once the gigantic colt “gets the lead.”

Those are big words from Dutrow who hasn’t shut his mouth since his horse finished first in the Florida Derby in March.  As much as I dislike Dutrow, I can’t really disagree with him at this point because the odds aren’t as skewed towards the Triple Crown threat as some might think.

The BetUS online racebook odds on Big Brown to win the 2008 Belmont Stakes against the rest of the field are 1 to 3.

Now, those odds may appear to be way underlaid.  After all it’s always a good rule of thumb to never wager on a horse going off at less then even money.  Some very intelligent online horseplayers actually go to the point of never wagering on a horse under 2 to 1 or 8 to 5 or 7 to 5.  Winning wagering practices require online racebook bettors to look at the odds with an eye on value. 

But the 2008 Belmont Stakes is actually very different because there appears to be only one horse capable of challenging Big Brown.  That horse, Casino Drive, will be making only his third lifetime start.  Not only that, but there appears to be only 9 or 10 horses, after Casino Drive, willing to challenge Big Brown.

That makes the twenty-horse field that Big Brown squashed in the Kentucky Derby look downright Romanesque.

There are other questions, of course, with taking the 1 to 3 odds on Big Brown.  They are big ones.  How will Big Brown react to the fact that metal sutures were placed into his hoof?  How will he react to the patch being applied to his hoof?  How will the Kenucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner react to the fact that he missed a few days of training just a week before the biggest race of his life?

These are all legitimate questions, but the fact remains that getting 1 to 3 on a horse in the BetUS online racebook future’s page that no doubt will go off at 1 to 5, or worse, at race-time means that there is obvious value in making an online future book wager on Big Brown.

Whether you, as an individual online horseplayer, make the wager on Big Brown depends on how much better you think Big Brown is then the rest of his competition.  In particular, Casino Drive who on paper looks like a real challenge to Richard Dutrow’s horse.

The key will also be making a quick decision based on the relevant information regarding Big Brown’s hoof.  If you truly believe that Ian McKinlay, Big Brown’s super-veterenarian is blowing smoke up our collective asses by saying that the hoof won’t be an issue, then stay away from the BetUS online odds of 1 to 3.

Then again, if you believe that Big Brown is indeed a stand-out and should have no issue with the hoof or Casino Drive, then go for it.  Getting 1 to 3 on an undefeated colt like Big Brown are better odds then a lot of horseplayers might think.

You won’t get that on race-day.  I guarantee it.