Calling the 2008 Belmont Stakes

We’re always preaching about trying to figure out how a race will unravel so let’s take a look at the weekend’s Belmont Stakes and try to project exactly how the race will unfold.

In alphabetical order, Anak Nakal kicks if off. He broke from post 3 in the Kentucky Derby and has drilled in upstate New York at Saratoga since the Louisville excursion.

The colt has absolutely no speed and figures pretty far back in the early going and that may put him behind the 8 ball turning for home.

He’ll need a lot of luck to roll into the trifecta this time.

Big Brown, of course, will have the target on his back like no other horse in the last 30 years. The drama between races has been the quarter crack in the foot and nobody in this field has been this far, but the best thing Brown has going for him, besides his freaky talent, is the fact he can sit just off the pace and still pounce.

Envision this guy in the hunt from the get go, with a clear view of the leader at all times.

Casino Drive is a kin to the last 2 Belmont winners, Jazil and Rags to Riches and although he has not beaten anybody, he figures on the muscle Saturday. He beat nobody in his debut in Japan but he did it wire to wire, project him in the first flight.

Da’ Tara may have rabbit duties this weekend. The other Nick Zito charge, his top runner is Anal Nakal, this guy is still eligible for a entry level allowance race but his lone win came wire to wire and was just beaten a half in a $100K race when just failing to hold the lead.

Denis of Cork did not get the greatest of trips in the Derby but his lack of speed will be a factor this weekend. He has the blood to run all day and will be a late factor if at all.

Guadalcanal is shooting for the moon as a maiden but he has a shot to get a slice as the only horse in the field with experience at the trip, he was beaten a nose in a turf marathon a couple of weeks ago and his trainer, Fred Seitz, won a stakes at Saratoga with a maiden a couple of years ago.

From the clouds if at all.

Icabad Crane ran like a headless horse in the Preakness because he kept on finding trouble and he’ll be much closer this time.

Macho Again was caught inside in the Baltimore run and never showed his top velocity. He’s best from midpack and must be respected.

If Ready’s Echo is going to make any noise, it will be from left field. He seems far overmatched and was handled easily by the Japanese runner last time.

Grouchy trainer Barclay Tagg was not pleased with the May 26 workout posted by his charge Tale of Ekati but this guy still races a long look Saturday. He’s unbeaten in the 2 local starts, should be able to garner a spot in the first flight maybe just 2 or so lengths off the top.

In the bad work, the son of Tale of the Cat went in 1:18 4/5 and this is was the reaction from Tagg: “I don’t know how a world-class rider can go out there and work a horse in 1:18  -- I just don’t know, I told him to go in 1:12.”
           
Rider Eibar Coa got the message because in the final prep Tale was just a tick off the time.

This guy is live.

How does the race materialize? Casino Drive, Da’ Tara, Tale of Ekati and Big Brown will all break great and look like the Rockettes in the early going.

After a half mile, Da’ Tara will be hailing a cab while Casino Drive and Ekati continue to duel with Big Brown sitting just outside of horses stuck in neutral.

Macho Again will head the next flight along with Icabad Crane with Anak Nakal, Guadalcanal and Denis of Cork starting to wind up.

At the top of the lane, Big Brown starts the move and opens up 3 lengths in a flash. Macho Again will overtake a fading Casino Drive with a furlong to go with Anak Nakal and Denis of Cork fighting it out for the last spots in the superfecta. Sprinkle in Tale of Ekati and Guadacanal in the bottom half of the gimmick, and the bet would be BB on top of Macho, Anak, Denis, Ekati, Guadalcanal and then Casino Drive if you can spread that much.

Visualize and good luck.