Fearless predictions: Olympic men's road race

by kferaday | August 7, 2008 at 11:02 pm

1377 views | 10 Recommendations | 14 comments

I've been so busy at work the Olympics really snuck up on me. Tomorrow night is the first big Olympic event (at least for cycling fans) the men's Olympic road race. At 245km the distance is comparable to some of the Spring Classics. The race starts tamely enough with a flat first 80km. But then the course heads into a 24km loop which includes the 10km Badaling climb which, while averaging only 4 percent, includes some very steep pitches. Many of the riders are calling it the toughtest Olympic course ever. Factor in the pollution, which has started to climb again and the riders are going to be calling it the Badasslong climb before the race reaches the finale.

Race Favourites

The Olympics are kind of a wierd race in that the teams are smaller, with only 5 riders for the larger teams versus the 8 or 9 they would normally have at the World's. That's going to make it really difficult for any single team to control the race and turn it into more of a war of attrition that can favor an aggressive rider like Paolo Bettini (remember the constant attacks that got him the last Olympic gold).

If there is one team that has a chance to control the race its got to be Spain. With the past two Tour de France winners (Carlos Sastre and Alberto Contador) this year's Tour green jersey winner (Oscar Freire) the ever dangerous Alejandro Valverde and Samual Sanchez, they have alot of horsepower. The Italians will also be strong but Pellizotti faded over the course of the Tour, Bettini will be a marked man and it's hard to know how Rebelliin is going right now. Ditto for Levi Leipheimer but the course suits Christian Vande Velde and he's got to be incredibly confident coming into this event (and a bit of a chip on his shoulder for missing the podium). Kim Kirchen or either of the Schleck brothers could also show well. So that pretty much narrows it down to half the field.

Since it's such a crapshoot, I'm going to put my finger in the air and pick (in no order) Bettini, Vende Velde and Valverde for the podium.

I can't end this without mentioning the Canadian team of Michael Barry, Ryder Hesjedal and Svein Tuft. This could easily be the strongest Canadian team we've sent to the Olympics (Steve Bauer aside) so I'm really hoping they prove my prediction wrong and snag a podium spot. Hesjedal rode a phenomenal first tour, finishing 13th in the final TT (which shows he was getting stronger over the three weeks). And Tuft has been burning things up on this side of the ocean. And since it will be almost impossible to control the race they may be able to hang in, stay invisible until the critical moves and surprise the folks back home.

Hichem Chabane (Algeria) Alejandro Alberto Borrajo (Argentina) Juan José Haedo (Argentina) Matias Medici (Argentina) Cadel Evans (Australia) Simon Gerrans (Australia) Matthew Lloyd (Australia) Stuart O'Grady (Australia) Michael Rogers (Australia) Christian Pfannberger (Austria) Thomas Rohregger (Austria) Aleksandr Kuchynski (Belarus) Kanstantsin Siutsou (Belarus) Alexandre Usov (Belarus) Mario Aerts (Belgium) Christophe Brandt (Belgium) Maxime Monfort (Belgium) Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Belgium) Johan Van Summeren (Belgium) Murilo Fischer (Brazil) Luciano André Pagliarini Mendonca (Brazil) Michael Barry (Canada) Ryder Hesjedal (Canada) Svein Tuft (Canada) Patricio Almonacid (Chile) Gonzalo Garrido (Chile) Santiago Botero Echeverry (Colombia) Jose Rodolfo Serpa Perez (Colombia) Rigoberto Uran (Colombia) Matija Kvasina (Croatia) Vladimir Miholjevic (Croatia) Radoslav Rogina (Croatia) Roman Kreuziger (Czech Republic) Petr Bencik (Czech Republic) Chris Anker Sørensen (Denmark) Nicki Sørensen (Denmark) Brian Vandborg (Denmark) Tanel Kangert (Estonia) Rein Taaramae (Estonia) Cyril Dessel (France) Pierrick Fédrigo (France) Rémi Pauriol (France) Jérôme Pineau (France) Pierre Rolland (France) Gerald Ciolek (Germany) Bert Grabsch (Germany) Stefan Schumacher (Germany) Jens Voigt (Germany) Fabian Wegmann (Germany) Steven Cummings (Great Britain) Roger Hammond (Great Britain) Laszlo Bodrogi (Hungary) Peter Kusztor (Hungary) Philip Deignan (Ireland) Nicolas Roche (Ireland) Hossein Askari (Islamic Republic of Iran) Ghader Mizbani Iranagh (Islamic Republic of Iran) Mehdi Sohrabi (Islamic Republic of Iran) Paolo Bettini (Italy) Marzio Bruseghin (Italy) Davide Rebellin (Italy) Franco Pellizotti (Italy) Vincenzo Nibali (Italy) Fumiyuki Beppu (Japan) Takashi Miyazawa (Japan) Maxim Iglinsky (Kazakhstan) Andrey Mizurov (Kazakhstan) Sung Baek Park (Korea) Raivis Belohvosciks (Latvia) Ignas Konovalovas (Lithuania) Dainius Kairelis (Lithuania) Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg) Andy Schleck (Luxembourg) Frank Schleck (Luxembourg) Moises Aldape Chavez (Mexico) Erik Hoffmann (Namibia) Stef Clement (Netherlands) Robert Gesink (Netherlands) Karsten Kroon (Netherlands) Laurens Ten Dam (Netherlands) Niki Terpstra (Netherlands) Glen Chadwick (New Zealand) Julian Dean (New Zealand) Timothy Gudsell (New Zealand) Kurt-Asle Arvesen (Norway) Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway) Gabriel Rasch (Norway) Liang Zhang (People's Republic of China) Tomasz Marczynski (Poland) Jacek Morajko (Poland) Przemyslaw Niemec (Poland) Nuno Ribeiro (Portugal) Vladimir Efimkin (Russian Federation) Sergei Ivanov (Russian Federation) Vladimir Karpets (Russian Federation) Alexandr Kolobnev (Russian Federation) Denis Menchov (Russian Federation) Nebojsa Jovanovic (Serbia) Ivan Stevic (Serbia) Roman Bronis (Slovakia) Matej Jurco (Slovakia) Jan Valach (Slovakia) Jure Golcer (Slovenia) Simon Spilak (Slovenia) Tadej Valjavec (Slovenia) John-Lee Augustyn (South Africa) David George (South Africa) Robert Hunter (South Africa) Alberto Contador Velasco (Spain) Oscar Freire Gomez (Spain) Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spain) Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spain) Carlos Sastre Candil (Spain) Gustav Erik Larsson (Sweden) Marcus Ljungqvist (Sweden) Thomas Lövkvist (Sweden) Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) Andry Grivko (Ukraine) Denys Kostyuk (Ukraine) Yaroslav Popovych (Ukraine) George Hincapie (United States Of America) Levi Leipheimer (United States Of America) Jason McCartney (United States Of America) Christian Vande Velde (United States Of America) David Zabriskie (United States Of America) Sergey Lagutin (Uzbekistan)

Weather Update

Unfortunately it looks as if the air quality is going to be poor for the road race.

The British Broadcasting Corporation, which has been conducting independent measurements of pollution levels, found 191 micrograms of particulate matter per cubic metre, but that's almost four times higher than the World Health Organization's recommended limit of 50 micrograms.

Bob McCormack, head physician for the Canadian team, pointed out that according to the international pollution measurements, Beijing's air quality is about half as bad as it was a year or so ago, but it's still almost 40 per cent worse than Toronto on a bad day.

136

0 See all footage | View Slideshow

Share: email story | add to any | | facebook | stumbleupon

recommend This comment thread is now closed

Amy Judd

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 09:49 on August 8th, 2008

kferaday, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Great look at the sport!

chrismaher.co.uk

at 00:20 on August 9th, 2008

Kim Kirchen (LUX) was in very good form in the TDF (Tour De France) & stands a real good chance of taking one of the medals on offer at Beijing.

chrismaher.co.uk has contributed a photo to this story.

kathyquintelier

at 00:55 on August 9th, 2008

This picture was taken at the start of the Brabant Arrow in Belgium.
Next to us, there were some children standing who knew somebody of the organisation. That man asked Bettini to pose with those children for the photo and so I was able to shoot this picture

kathyquintelier has contributed a photo to this story.

chris_rutkowski

at 03:06 on August 9th, 2008

Levi Leipheimer on the podium after winnin the Solvang time-trial stage in the 2008 Tour of California stage race.

chris_rutkowski has contributed a photo to this story.

poobearpollie04

at 05:57 on August 9th, 2008

Levi Leipheimer broke away from the peleton to win the 2007 US Cycling Championships in Greenville, SC.

poobearpollie04 has contributed a photo to this story.

West coast chick

at 05:57 on August 9th, 2008

Svein Tuft of Symmetrics Cycling Team appears relaxed at the Giro di Burnaby, part of the Superweek in Vancouver BC

West coast chick has contributed a photo to this story.

bigcatwcu

at 07:07 on August 9th, 2008

This is Christian Vandevelde on stage 6 of the Tour de Georgia. He was just about to finish the climb up Brasstown Bald Mountain, which is an HC classification climb.

bigcatwcu has contributed a photo to this story.

scalatore92

at 09:34 on August 9th, 2008

Alberto Contador with "maglia rosa" at the mountain time trial on the Kronplatz. It was an amazing day!

scalatore92 has contributed a photo to this story.

ARUSSO

at 10:24 on August 9th, 2008

Stage 3 - 2008 Tour of California

After having raced up Sierra Rd the prior Saturday, I couldn't help but take a half day's vacation to see how the Pro's do it. After 81 miles. And having climbed the hard side of Mt. Hamilton. I won't say they made it look easy... but it was certainly humbling.

Shot with Canon 5D, 100-400mm f/3.5-5.6 L, ISO500. Tv, 1/1250.

ARUSSO has contributed a photo to this story.

steady301

at 13:25 on August 9th, 2008

I'm a huge Rabobank fan.
I watched Oscar coming extremely close to winning in Valencia during the 2008 Amgen Tour Of California (ATOC).
He was about 10 feet from the line when out of nowhere, Mark Cavendish flew by him.
When this happened, Oscar mentally quit and ended up finishing 6th.
I ran up to him and took this photo and he was extremely curious to watch the replay.
I told him that Cavendish had crashed and this left him really confused.
Later, Cavendish was penalized and the 2nd placed rider was relagated the win.
The next morning, I told Oscar, "You have to go full throttle all the way to the line."
Oscar said, "I only go for the win, and when I was passed, there's no more reason for me to go."
I explained to him, "2nd is better than 5th. You get more points for the Green Jersey." The Green Jersey is a very prestigious prize in the Tour de France (TDF).
I also said, "If you were full throttle all the way to the line, you would have finished 2nd and because of the penalty, you would have been 1st." "That's why it's very important to finish strong, because you never know."
He said, "You never know."
To try and cheer him up, I said, "Well. You can't win them all."
He agreed, but deep inside, he knew he gave this one away.
After this race, I watched every spring classic I could; and I noticed Oscar was full throttle, all the way to the line, every time; even if he was not winning. This carried over nicely into the TDF, where he wouldn't give away a single point; and claimed the Green Jersey with a commanding lead.
This is why this loss was very important for Oscar.
He realized that the best possible finish can be just as important as a win.
steady301