Format Provides Plenty Of Intrigue As Chase Start Nears

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Format Provides Plenty Of Intrigue As Chase Start Nears

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With four races remaining until the Chase begins – following the Richmond race on Sept. 10 – it’s not unusual that fans hear, read and see plenty of news about the drivers who are still fighting for entry into the exclusive 12-car field.

After all, several different scenarios exist and the questions over the next month will be, which one of them, or one as yet unknown, will be a reality and which drivers will be pleased – or disappointed?

Don’t think for a moment the competitors who are not yet in the Chase aren’t thinking about what they have to do to make it.

For a few of them it’s a matter of consistent performances over the next four races. The higher the finish, the better – and, oh yeah, a win would be great but it’s not really necessary to become one of the 12 drivers who will make the Chase.

For others, a victory is paramount. Can’t worry about points – to do so would be a waste of time. The only way to make up lost ground is to win.

The field for the Chase this year will be made up of the drivers in the top 10 in points after the Richmond race.

The 12-competitor lineup will be completed by two “wildcard” entries – those drivers with the most victories who are ranked among the top 20.

This “wildcard” business has been most intriguing. It has received constant attention from the media and, I daresay, the fans.

It’s NASCAR’s newest wrinkle in its oft-altered point system and it’s been a good one in the sense that it has, at the very least, provided some interest.

Let’s be honest here. If there was no “wildcard” and victories didn’t count for something, would anyone presently pay the slightest bit of attention to, say, Paul Menard, Marcos Ambrose or David Ragan?

In the past, believe me, these guys would have been ignored simply because they stood no chance of making NASCAR’s “playoff” under the point systems then utilized. They wouldn’t be given a second thought.

This year, however small their opportunities may be, they are parts of discussions and speculation. As we head into Michigan for this weekend’s Pure Michigan 400 Sprint Cup race, they’re not out of the hunt.

The reason? It ain’t so much about points as it is winning.

Menard is 14th in points with a single victory. Ambrose is 22nd and won for the first time in his career at Watkins Glen. Ragan is 23rd with a win at Daytona in July. He’s tumbled a bit since then and has fallen from a relatively comfortable Chase contender status.

All three of these guys could improve their points position – Ambrose, for example, is just one point out of 20th and Ragan is five in arrears – but it’s highly unlikely that alone is going to cut it.

But another win could make all the difference.

Currently, Brad Keselowski is the “wildcard” leader. He’s 14th in points, but is the only driver among the top 20 with two victories this season.

If Menard, 15th in points, wins again he could join Keselowski in the Chase field. So could Ambrose or Ragan because another victory would very likely push either into the top 20.

Denny Hamlin is, presently, next in line to make the Chase as a “wildcard,” behind Keselowski. Hamlin stands 12th in points with one victory.

For the Joe Gibbs Racing driver the season has been decidedly different than last year. He won at Michigan in June 2010 and finished second when the circuit returned to MIS in August.

He then won at Richmond for his sixth victory of the year and thus was No. 1 in the seeded standings when the Chase began.

Hamlin’s lone win of this season came at, yep, Michigan in June. He will likely be a strong favorite this weekend as he has an impeccable record at the two-mile track.

He has two wins and a runnerup finish in his last three MIS races with five straight top-10s and an average finish of 3.4.

Hamlin could use at least another top-five finish to keep his Chase hopes alive. He’s been in a three-race slump (he was 36th last week at the Glen after a frightening crash) and needs a solid performance.

Hamlin trails the trio of Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer, who rank ninth-11th in points, respectively.

Hamlin, however, has an advantage. He’s got the “insurance policy” of a victory. The others are winless – so far.

Earnhardt Jr., trying to make the Chase for the first time since 2008, appears, to some, to be safe. He’s 36 points ahead of Bowyer, the Richard Childress Racing driver who would have to make up more than nine points in each remaining race to catch Earnhardt Jr.

Well, yeah, but what if Bowyer or Stewart wins and Earnhardt Jr. slumps? Beyond that, what if … well, there are a heckuva lot of “what ifs.”

There are several scenarios that could play out over the next four races. In fact, there are so many that involve the contending drivers (not to mention those who could quickly and unexpectedly join them) that to list them all would be, frankly, impossible.

To me, that’s the beauty of the system and its “wildcard” opportunities for drivers who win and are consistent enough to be among the top 20.

How it’s all going to end before the Chase starts is a mystery. And, to be honest, that’s something we didn’t have much of in years past.

One thing is certain: We can expect a lot more news and speculation about the potential Chase lineup over the next handful of weeks.

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