NFL Insider - Who Will be the Last Undefeated Team?

Photos

Indianapolis Colts | Photo 02

see larger image

uploaded by Joe Hachem

• 

  uploaded by Joe Hachem | add comment

• 

  uploaded by Joe Hachem | add comment

• 

  uploaded by Joe Hachem | add comment

• 

  uploaded by Joe Hachem | add comment

• 

  uploaded by Joe Hachem | add comment

We are at the point in the schedule where we are one-quarter of the way through the NFL sports betting season, and there are still five unbeaten teams left. Do any of them have what it takes to go through the whole schedule without a scratch? That's obviously a highly unlikely thing, but since the New England Patriots did it two years ago, everybody wants to talk about that kind of thing now.

So I made up some NFL betting numbers, so you could argue about it.

The factors I would use in evaluating this kind of proposition are:

-- Schedule

-- Team strength

-- Experience

-- Quarterback

Those factors don't necessarily come in that order.

Not surprisingly, the two teams who have had the most success in recent years would be my top two choices.

By the way, I found out from the ESPN telecast on Monday that since 1990, if a team started out 4-0, there was an 84% chance that they would make the playoffs. Whether you think the Denver Broncos, for example, will fall into that 16% who will miss out is something you can argue about, and perhaps make a subject of an NFL betting prop in and of itself.

There are two I would make up here:

ODDS TO GO 19-0 (INCLUDING SUPER BOWL)

Indianapolis Colts -- 60/1

New York Giants -- 90/1

New Orleans Saints -- 300/1

Minnesota Vikings -- 400/1

Denver Broncos -- 10,000/1

It's such an abstract thing to make up numbers here, since it is so improbable that any of these teams are going to do it. Suffice it to say that none of them are as dominant as the Patriots were in 2007. You could almost assign any figures to this one-way prop.

Here's a better one:

LAST TEAM TO STAY UNBEATEN

Indianapolis Colts +120

New York Giants  +160

New Orleans Saints +300

Minnesota Vikings  +350

Denver Broncos  +2000

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+120 in NFL betting to be "last") -- The Colts certainly have experience in going on long winning streaks in NFL betting and especially in straight-up games. They have currently won 13 regular season games in a row. By now it has been demonstrated that it doesn't much matter which receivers Peyton Manning has it his disposal, he is going to make the most of them. The Colts have won twelve games for six straight seasons, so you know there is consistency on their side.

Upcoming they have to play the weakened Tennessee Titans, then after a bye week, they have a road game at St. Louis, followed by home games against San Francisco, Houston and New England. Certainly the Niners are feisty, but I don't know that they have the firepower to trade points. How about the Patriots? They are capable of ending the streak, but clearly they are not at the level they were two seasons ago, despite the 3-1 record. If that isn't an obstacle, the November 22 date at Baltimore will serve as a major road block. If that is the first game Indianapolis loses, that will have meant a 9-0 start.

NEW YORK GIANTS (+160 in NFL betting to be "last") -- The Giants got off to an 11-1 start last season, which means that they had won 15 out of 16 games. It is obvious that they can get on a roll, and since Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and now Hakeem Nicks are establishing themselves as weapons in Eli Manning's arsenal, there's no telling how far they can go.

They just recently got off the road, where they won three straight. That's nothing unusual for this team, which has now won 18 of its last 21 games as the visitor. The Giants play Oakland at the Meadowlands next, which shouldn't be too difficult an assignment unless they are completely caught sleeping. Then, in short order, are road games against New Orleans and Philadelphia, sandwiched around a visit from the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals.

Home games against San Diego and Atlanta follow that, then there is a visit to Denver (who won't be undefeated then) and home games against the Cowboys and Eagles. I'm convinced the Giants are operating on all cylinders, but I think in that minefield, and possibly early on, they'll falter.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+300 in NFL betting to be "last") -- For Drew Brees, it must be nice to know that when you are not having a great game (190 yards and no TD's against the Jets, for example), your defense can make the plays that produce the winning points in NFL betting. Newcomer Darren Sharper is giving them more than even they were expecting, with five interceptions, returning two of them for touchdowns.

New Orleans has something of an advantage in the respect that they can't lose next week, because they have a bye. Then they come back with a home game with the Giants, which considering the way the Giants play on the road, isn't going to be easy at all. If they get by that, they could be okay for a while, since they have division home games against Atlanta and Carolina and visits to St. Louis and Tampa Bay (currently winless) before the Patriots come to town on November 30.

One thing that deserves mention is that the Saints have played against two rookie quarterbacks, along with another who was making his first pro start (Kevin Kolb) and then they get Miami, where Chad Henne will be making his third NFL start and first on the road. That's why the Giants and their balance may be an especially difficult challenge for this defense. Then again, maybe they'll get lucky and Eli Manning will be sidelined with his heel injury (not likely) so that they can draw David Carr.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+350 in NFL betting to be "last') -- There are a lot of excited people who saw Brett Favre on Monday night and envision an undefeated sweep to the Super Bowl for the Vikings. That's not going to happen, though I doubt their undefeated run will end this coming week at St. Louis. The Vikings have the makings of a contender who can battle on even terms with the Giants, Eagles, Saints, Cowboys, Falcons or whoever else rises to the occasion in the NFC. That's because Favre at least brings the element of downfield explosiveness to the table, not to mention another way to go in case the opposition is able to bottle up Adrian Peterson, as the Packers did on Monday.

Things don't get especially easy for this team after the Rams, however. There's a three-game stretch against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay (at Lambeau) that won't provide the easiest path for this team, and even though Favre has to be given an "A" grade thus far, there's a good shot he'll throw at least one game away during that time.

DENVER BRONCOS (+2000 in NFL betting to be "last") -- Easily the top candidate to drop from the unbeaten ranks first. Hey, it's not that I don't appreciate the improvements that have been made on defense (26 points allowed in four games), or the ability of Brandon Marshall to continue making plays, or for the running game to be just good enough to be a distraction. Coach Josh McDaniels must have a great feeling of vindication right now, especially after that win over Dallas. However, do you really think Kyle Orton is going to continue playing mistake-free football? Can a team with him at quarterback continue to stay unblemished for very long? I think not.

Denver has a home game with New England next, then visits San Diego. After the bye week, it's onto Baltimore, then they host Pittsburgh. They visit FedEx Field to play the Redskins, then it's a couple of home games against the Chargers and Giants. There's an awful lot of damage that can be done during that time - to them.