For Now The Evidence, And Numbers, Favor Johnson

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For Now The Evidence, And Numbers, Favor Johnson

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This might not sit well with everyone, especially those who want to see someone new become the NASCAR Sprint Cup champion at last, but according to the numbers, Jimmie Johnson is in a very good position to win his sixth consecutive championship.

This can be said even after his relatively slow start in the first two races of the Chase. He finished a respectable 10th at Chicago but an uncharacteristically mediocre 18th at New Hampshire, after which he ranked 10th in points, 29 behind leader Tony Stewart.

With eight races remaining Johnson’s deficit would not be difficult to erase - although more than a few observers suggested it would and even ruled the Hendrick Motorsports driver virtually out of contention.

He came roaring back with a runnerup finish at Dover and now stands fifth in points, only 13 behind new leader Kevin Harvick.

Johnson needled the doubters among the media – “Hey, last week I was considered done,” he said - and I believe he also made believers out of a few skeptics.

If we go by Johnson’s past record in the Chase he’s got his rivals right where he wants ‘em.

The driver from El Cajon, Calif., has displayed remarkable consistency in the Chase, more so than any other driver.

And I don’t care how many times a points system is altered and what bonuses are applied, consistency will always win championships – always.

Here are the numbers that give Johnson his edge.

Last year he started the Chase second by 10 points to leader Denny Hamlin in the re-seeded standings. Hamlin won at Richmond, the last race before the “playoffs,” for his sixth victory of the season, one more than Johnson.

Johnson stumbled in the first race of the Chase at New Hampshire, where he finished 25th and dropped to seventh in points. Hamlin, the runnerup, held the lead.

Then Johnson won the second race of the Chase, at Dover, and Hamlin finished ninth. Johnson rose to second in points.

Johnson thus recovered from a slow start. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

It got better. He finished second at Kansas, the third race, and moved into first place in the standings after Hamlin wound up ninth in the race.

In 2011, Johnson may not have moved to the top of the heap – yet – but he’s clearly established that he and his team have the ability to do so, and in short order.

Here are the most important statistics from last year that make Johnson an odds-on title favorite.

After he rose to first in points following three races, Johnson never finished out of the top 10 in the final seven races of the 2010 season. In fact, he finished five times among the top five.

He had more consistent performances than any other driver – and he needed all of them.

That’s because Hamlin was Johnson’s equal in consistency for much of the remainder of the Chase. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver also won twice.

He won first at Martinsville, where he closed to within six points of Johnson, and then again at Texas, where he moved atop the standings with just two races remaining.

Hamlin then lost his consistency, and the title, largely through no fault of his own. He was a victim of the misfortunes that are always a part of racing.

He was 12th at Phoenix where Johnson was second. Hamlin was 15 points in front going into the last race of the season at Homestead.

There, Hamlin finished 14th while Johnson took the runnerup spot and won the title by 39 points.

It’s been suggested that Hamlin, who has won only once in 2011, barely made the Chase and has already been eliminated from championship contention, really never recovered.

I’m only suggesting that in 2010, Johnson started the Chase slowly, quickly overcame a point deficit and established himself as the man to beat.

That year he finished among the top 10 in nine of the Chase races, which includes seven top-five runs, one a victory.

Now consider that this year Johnson has earned two top-10 finishes, one among the top five, in the first three races.

See the pattern?

In doing what he has so far, Johnson has again made up a point deficit and, again, has come to the forefront as a title contender.

Obviously no one can say that he’s “out of it.”

I understand fully that what was the past doesn’t mean it will be the same in the future.

After three races the Chase scenario is far different from what it was in 2010. There are nine drivers within a mere 19 points of each other in the standings. That means we have one of the closest title contests in “playoff” history.

Under the right circumstances it won’t take much for things to change quickly. Johnson has already shown us that a driver can make up a huge portion of a 29-point deficit in a single race.

So has Dover winner Kurt Busch, who rose from ninth to fourth in points. He was once 28 points down and now the difference is only nine.

It’s certainly possible that, over the last seven races, Johnson won’t experience the consistency he did last year.

Heck, he and his team could fall flat on their faces. All it takes is a wreck here, a mechanical failure there and an empty gas tank over yonder.

And we could see another organization pile up a series of good finishes, tossing in a victory or two, to compile a record of consistency that supplants Johnson.

But numbers and evidence suggest that Johnson has already done what he needed to return to serious contention and that he won’t fade as the season closes.

Play the odds and, right now, Johnson has to be the favorite.

If nothing else, it should be fascinating to see what happens over the final seven races of the year, and how it ultimately all plays out.

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