UFC 104 Preview: Machida vs Shogun

UFC 104's headliners have almost nothing in common, other than Brazilian nationality and wearing the mantle of "world's best fighter" at various times.

The mythical pound-for-pound title in the Ultimate Fighting Championship arguably belongs to light-heavyweight champion Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida, but four years ago it rested with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Rua in 2005 had one of the best runs of any fighter in the short history of mixed martial arts as he charged through Pride Fighting Championships' 205-pound tournament. At his best, Rua exhibits a broad arsenal, a fair amount of flash, truckloads of aggression and not a whiff of subtlety.

In other words, Machida should dismantle him.

Rua moves forward in straight lines and often throws strikes without regard for defense, making him the perfect target for Machida's hit-and-run tactics. The champion dares opponents to try and touch him, and the moment they commit, he uncoils his counterstrikes.

Shogun's critics cite the loss to Forrest Griffin as evidence of Rua's weakness, but he was in poor shape for that fight, and Griffin's style has little in common with the Dragon's. But Machida can turn to one of his occasional  training partners, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, for tips on Rua.

Although Nogueira lost a decision to Rua in the 2005 tournament's second round, Lil' Nog repeatedly landed hooks and straight counters on Shogun, dropping him once and staggering him multiple times.

Their fight - strangely overlooked these days, although it was one of 2005's two best bouts - went exactly the opposite of what was expected: the Brazilian jiu-jitsu stud had the edge on the feet, but the Muay Thai bull rusher won on the ground by landing several hard shots after successful takedowns.

Rua will have a hard time simply getting close to Machida, let alone getting underhooks for bodylock takedowns that worked so often against Nogueira. Last year's UFC 84 fight against ex-champ Tito Ortiz illustrated the difficulty of laying a glove on Machida: according to FightMetric, Ortiz failed to land a single strike in the first round and connected on just two in the second; he never succeeded with a takedown, even though it's his specialty.

And when Rua inevitably leaves himself open for counterattacks, Machida has the power and accuracy to end things - where Lil' Nog merely buckled Shogun, Machida would put him to sleep.