US Olympic 'Redeem Team' is Still Chalky

Everything has gone according to plan for Olympic betting chalkeaters. Michael Phelps is hoarding gold and breaking world records every time he steps into the Water Cube. China is fulfilling its mandate of claiming the most gold medals in Beijing. And the U.S. men’s basketball team squashed its first two opponents in preliminary action.

It’s apparent that Team USA is serious about correcting the mistakes that led to the bronze medal at the 2004 Games in Athens. That team included good players like Richard Jefferson, Lamar Odom and Emeka Okafor; this year’s model includes superstars like Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Chris Bosh. The “Redeem Team” also features LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, who were criminally underused by head coach Larry Brown four years ago. Now James and Anthony are in the starting rotation for new coach Mike Krzyzewski.

Putting all these MVP-quality players on one team, and making what appears to be a dedicated commitment to winning, has restored Team USA’s profile enough to make it the –450 favorite to bring home the gold. While the Americans are on the rise, the defending Olympic champions from Argentina are not as strong as they were four years ago. They’ve already lost 79-75 to Lithuania in the preliminary round and have fallen to +1800 on the Olympic odds list. Lithuania is +1600 after brushing aside Iran in its second qualifier.

Team USA’s strongest competition at the Olympics is expected to come from Spain, the reigning FIBA World Champions from 2006 and the second favorite at +275. Spain started well with an impressive 81-66 victory against a very tough team from Greece (+1200). Then they stumbled against a China squad that may have been inspired by a team photo of Spain that can be charitably described as “politically incorrect.” The champions came back from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime and eventually win 85-75, punctuated by a meaningless and unnecessary Juan Carlos Navarro lay-up with two seconds left.

Given the adulation the local fans showed the U.S. even during their opening-game rout of China, it’s easy to conclude that the Redeem Team will enjoy something of a home-court advantage should they face Spain in the gold medal matchup on Aug. 24. Beijing time.